I am flat.
I quit trading this impossible range of BTC where a lot of chopping is done. Almost lost my fingers here, long squeeze after short squeeze. We are just being toyed around by the market makers and the mex (made me to consider to do future trading on Dutch derivatives platform "Deribit" as well. Arthur just lost another customer).
However, Bitcoin rules them all, that's why I keep my eye on big daddy BTC at all times. It does not make sense to invest in Alts if a big volatility move is coming up by Bitcoin, next to that altcoins only tend to move when BTC had a good run up, or is in consolidation.
The signals in the market however are very confusing at this moment. Market sentiment is bearish (as technicals support this), as we can see that shorts are stacking up. But even when the shorts piling up, the price is not declining. This smells all very fishy to me. Usually when the crowd is leaning left, the market usually learns the majority the contrary. A large short squeeze at any moment can be very likely as we have seen in the past. If I had a good long entry at this year's lows, I would just let it sit with an appropriate stop in place. But the fact is that I don't, so I will just let the market work out a direction and play on a possible retest.
A subjective mention is that I find it a rather destructive move to have another short squeeze coming up. Of course, this is good for the market makers, but it would slowly dissect the crypto space in a much 'poorer' atmosphere where institutional and retail money are hesistant to take a position. Long term, it could cost them years of good profit, but they just like to accumilate BTC at low prices. Regardless, I am heavily bullish on BTC itself, but I would rather see organic growth/decline movements as in more mature markets that are better tradeable. Easy money just doesn't exist!
For me there are two options at this moment:
1. Making new lows at some of the key levels where bounces can take place:
5000: psychological support and 1.272 extension of prior wave up/correction
4100: equilibrium distribution block and close to 1.618 extension of prior wave up/correction
or 3000: infamous psychological support and monthly level.
2. Artificial squeeze up which will have to convince the majority traders to take on a new bull run.
For the given scenarios, I find the second the most likely, but that it could lead to a new successful bullrun is not convincing. Eventually, this would lead us to scenario 1 after all.
The point how I see it, is that a new low needs to be formed to create sustainable momentum for a new bull run to be successful. I am more that happy to see a decent V-shaped bottom that capitulated the sh*t out of the market. Therefor, I am rooting for a low around the 4100’s, but I wouldn’t be surprised that the psychological level of 5000 could hold. In between of the low of 5755 and 5000, very little support is found, so the price in between could decline here very fast. Ultimately, price could follow the red line in the charts, and make a capitulation low around the 3000 level. Should this happen, it will take a couple of months from now I guess.
You can be courageous to take a position now, or wait for the market to give us more signals in which direction we are likely to go. I am a chicken for now, I'll just wait for better setups :)
Hope you found this informative. I am thrilled to hear about your opinions below in the comments.
ALWAYS use a stop loss! (that's financial advice right there)
PS. The chart layout is a nice copy of trader Bulltrapped. Diggin it, it's like ice cream on the eye :)
Maurits
I quit trading this impossible range of BTC where a lot of chopping is done. Almost lost my fingers here, long squeeze after short squeeze. We are just being toyed around by the market makers and the mex (made me to consider to do future trading on Dutch derivatives platform "Deribit" as well. Arthur just lost another customer).
However, Bitcoin rules them all, that's why I keep my eye on big daddy BTC at all times. It does not make sense to invest in Alts if a big volatility move is coming up by Bitcoin, next to that altcoins only tend to move when BTC had a good run up, or is in consolidation.
The signals in the market however are very confusing at this moment. Market sentiment is bearish (as technicals support this), as we can see that shorts are stacking up. But even when the shorts piling up, the price is not declining. This smells all very fishy to me. Usually when the crowd is leaning left, the market usually learns the majority the contrary. A large short squeeze at any moment can be very likely as we have seen in the past. If I had a good long entry at this year's lows, I would just let it sit with an appropriate stop in place. But the fact is that I don't, so I will just let the market work out a direction and play on a possible retest.
A subjective mention is that I find it a rather destructive move to have another short squeeze coming up. Of course, this is good for the market makers, but it would slowly dissect the crypto space in a much 'poorer' atmosphere where institutional and retail money are hesistant to take a position. Long term, it could cost them years of good profit, but they just like to accumilate BTC at low prices. Regardless, I am heavily bullish on BTC itself, but I would rather see organic growth/decline movements as in more mature markets that are better tradeable. Easy money just doesn't exist!
For me there are two options at this moment:
1. Making new lows at some of the key levels where bounces can take place:
5000: psychological support and 1.272 extension of prior wave up/correction
4100: equilibrium distribution block and close to 1.618 extension of prior wave up/correction
or 3000: infamous psychological support and monthly level.
2. Artificial squeeze up which will have to convince the majority traders to take on a new bull run.
For the given scenarios, I find the second the most likely, but that it could lead to a new successful bullrun is not convincing. Eventually, this would lead us to scenario 1 after all.
The point how I see it, is that a new low needs to be formed to create sustainable momentum for a new bull run to be successful. I am more that happy to see a decent V-shaped bottom that capitulated the sh*t out of the market. Therefor, I am rooting for a low around the 4100’s, but I wouldn’t be surprised that the psychological level of 5000 could hold. In between of the low of 5755 and 5000, very little support is found, so the price in between could decline here very fast. Ultimately, price could follow the red line in the charts, and make a capitulation low around the 3000 level. Should this happen, it will take a couple of months from now I guess.
You can be courageous to take a position now, or wait for the market to give us more signals in which direction we are likely to go. I am a chicken for now, I'll just wait for better setups :)
Hope you found this informative. I am thrilled to hear about your opinions below in the comments.
ALWAYS use a stop loss! (that's financial advice right there)
PS. The chart layout is a nice copy of trader Bulltrapped. Diggin it, it's like ice cream on the eye :)
Maurits