4xForecaster
Short

A Classical Tale Of "Told You So"? | $BTC #Bitcoin #Litecoin

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
2470 14 6
Friends,

This past December 2013, we forecast the following targets:

1 - 15 DEC             2013
BTCUSD             (MtGox): TG-1 = 270.61 at a time when price was about $954.00 - See chart and replay the price action by clicking several times over the right arrow in the chart:
-
BTCUSD - #bitcoin - Target = 270.61


2 - 13 DEC             2013:
BTCGBP             (MtGox): TG-1 = 170.89 at a time when price was about $561.00 - Here too, see chart and replay the price action by clicking several times over the right arrow in the chart:
-
BTCGBP - TG-1 = 179.89 - 13 DEC 2013


In fact, while the bitcoin market gained resiliency, our system offered alternative bullish targets, but only TWO were ever reached dead on:
1 - $989.27
and
2 - 1028.75

In fact, in that same chart we had already defined a "Potential Conversion Line", which if crossed, would cause price to collapse and convert that intermediate bullish market into a bearish market. What ensued was exactly just that: price crossed, reached towards our first bearish target at 797.02, and never looked back.

In fact, price kept on going and going all the way to a consolidation ... where to? Well, exactly right at the December 15th bearish-most target at 270.61.

Feel free to replay once more and reminisce:
-
BTCUSD - #bitcoin - Target = 270.61



BTCUSD             - Bitstamp:

Looking at the other exchange, and once we decided that the market had turned, we shared with traders our bearish directional bias. While most of the bitcoin traders with whom we shared these charts remain quite dubious as to our methodology and rationale, we were only able to convince them of the accuracy of our forecast, but not of the continued bearish strength which would bring price to ever abysmal levels.

Here for instance, on February 10th 2014, we gave our first bearish target, "TG-1 = 449.89", which got hit before price rallied in relief:
-
Update: Still Bearish; Target Unchanged | $BTCUSD #Bitcoin


In this subsequent chart, we also offered a lower target on February 22nd, as "TG-Low = 385.95 - 2 FEB 2015":
-
Update-2: Relief Rally, EAGLE Strategy Explained | #Bitcoin $BTC


Replaying this last link above shows a sustained relief rally into a newly defined "cloud" or pink-colored zone we had defined and explained as a trading strategy we had developed in the years of trading, called "EAGLE".

(Conclusion made in comment area following chart)

Cheers,


David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & forecasting


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Follow our forecasts, signals and analyses on Twitter
Alias: @4xForecaster
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Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
OVERALL:

This brings us to today, where our system has not changed course, and the environment for bitcoin has in fact further deteriorated. In the many public and private comments we had received through Facebook, Twitter and TradingView, the most common reaction had been doubt with trader's own reasoning backed with technicals and fundamentals evidence. We also were subjected to some humor, and at times plain anger. But we hope that in this downward journey into the depth of bitcoin abysmal dwelling, the junior trader is learning at least one thing, which is to "plan the trade, and trade the plan", regardless of the noise, interference and verbal interdictions slapping your screen.

We won't be as brash as saying: "Told you so!", but we will let you review the calls we made and the position we maintained consistently, despite all the commotion and emotion surrounding the past few months ever since we delved into our predictive analysis and forecasting of the Bitcoin.

Here is for your review, once more:
-
BTCUSD - #bitcoin - Target = 270.61


Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & forecasting


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Follow our signals, analysis and forecast on TWITTER:
- Alias; @4xForecaster
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Reply
A-class analysis, yet again David... Your contributions have been invaluable instruments of my learning these past few months. It's unfathomable to think what may have happened had I not converted from bull to bear while we hung at such a lofty high coming out of an equally unfathomable rally last year... All news worth mentioning will make it's tiny mark on the charts, and if we zoom out far enough, it all bleeds together into a string of raw, continuous price action -- our only proof that the news was ever worth mentioning in the first place.

"plan the trade, and trade the plan" is my new motto.

Although I should mention, the replay buttons currently don't bring you all the way forward in time on those older charts ;-)
Reply
BuyOnPurple PRO BuyOnPurple
2 years ago
Be sure to include some lessons on reversal identification in the near future ;-)
Reply
4xForecaster PRO BuyOnPurple
2 years ago
@BuyOnPurple - The chart requires to click several times on the replay arrow - Did this work?

David Alcindor
Reply
BuyOnPurple PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I'm only able to click it once, after that, it dissapears. A better solution for new chartists is to just copy the chart and "make it my own" in the upper right, that way I can see your indicators update as well, should you choose to include any.
Reply
RamonOfSouza
2 years ago
Your target is still $270 before trend reverses?
Reply
4xForecaster PRO RamonOfSouza
2 years ago
@RamonOfSouza - As the text suggests explicitly, there is no change in direction until the system says there is, in which case it will call for a new plan of trade - David
Reply
Nxxtft 4xForecaster
2 years ago
The price just went above the resistance line. Does it mean the direction has changed?
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Nxxtft
2 years ago
Hi, @Nxxtft - The thick red line represents an internal line, as compared to an external that would originate from the structure up above (see where price crested at 824.70, which would represents a departure point of a parallel line to that thick one and should be used as THE resistance marker).

Note also that the other thinner lines are momental lines and independent of the thick red line (if you use the "Make Mine" option, you will easily manipulate my chart and verify that the thick and thin lines are made of a distinctly different "mind", one representing a static geometry (thick), while the others are based on a dynamic and sustained rate of price across the entire chart, hence "momental lines" - Answering more than you asked, but this is simply preempting any discovery on your part regarding the difference in these lines.

Also, looking into my prop strat system, there is still no indication of any early market reversal. So, all things being considered, the chart remains bearish.

Hope this helps.

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Nxxtft
2 years ago
@Nxxtft - One more thing: Price is currently rallying into the "EAGLE", which is the pink-colored zone I had defined as a probable level of resistance where price is expected to visit. That area has a specific range, and should alarm the trader of the strength of bulls in this case if it were crossed. However, the structure-high that defines the top above that range should be your "line in the sand", so to speak.

Here too, I hope this helps.

Cheers,

David Alcindor, MOD.
Reply
Papa
2 years ago
Hi David, the price has just passed the $600, can it be because the ukraine -russia situation?
can a start of a small war reverse the trend to bullish?

Thanks!
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Papa
2 years ago
Hello @amit.magen.54 - My predictive analysis methodology and forecasting strategy assume that all is discounted in the price. So far, there is no fundamental event that has perturbed any of the forecast in this crypto-currency, or any other charts I recently analyzed in Forex, indices and commodities. In fact, most of them have seen price precipitating towards the targets.

In this particular case, the predictive analysis I use to define a trend, reversal and target remain unchanged.

However, if price was to cross past the EAGLE zone (here, 618.21 to 593.59 range), it would put by bearish stance on guard.

Only a "BACA" (i.e.: "Break Above, Close Above") relative to 646.00 would prompt me to abandon my bearish stance, although this would rely on price, independent of my system, which I would expect would turn its bias as well, and would provide a new target to the upside.

Until then, there is no reason for me to be concerned about changing the directional bias and writing another piece with a new bullish tone.

Hope this helps.

David Alcindor
Reply
ShortThePlanet
2 years ago
My advice to all readers: "Free cheese is only in a mousetrap".
Use your own brain guys, don't listen to any experts, it could cost you money.
Reply
nick.stoneman.5
2 years ago
Hi David. BTC BACA 646 and 649.84 on latest 4 hour. Is it now bullish? Thnx and best wishes, Nick
Reply
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