This past December 2013 , we forecast the following targets:
1 - 15 DEC 2013
BTCUSD (MtGox): TG-1 = 270.61 at a time when price was about $954.00 - See chart and replay the price action by clicking several times over the right arrow in the chart:
2 - 13 DEC 2013:
BTCGBP (MtGox): TG-1 = 170.89 at a time when price was about $561.00 - Here too, see chart and replay the price action by clicking several times over the right arrow in the chart:
In fact, while the market gained resiliency, our system offered alternative targets, but only TWO were ever reached dead on:
1 - $989.27
2 - 1028.75
In fact, in that same chart we had already defined a "Potential Conversion Line", which if crossed, would cause price to collapse and convert that intermediate market into a market. What ensued was exactly just that: price crossed, reached towards our first target at 797.02, and never looked back.
In fact, price kept on going and going all the way to a consolidation ... where to? Well, exactly right at the December 15th bearish-most target at 270.61.
Feel free to replay once more and reminisce:
BTCUSD - Bitstamp:
Looking at the other exchange, and once we decided that the market had turned, we shared with traders our directional bias. While most of the traders with whom we shared these charts remain quite dubious as to our methodology and rationale, we were only able to convince them of the accuracy of our forecast, but not of the continued strength which would bring price to ever abysmal levels.
Here for instance, on February 10th 2014, we gave our first target, "TG-1 = 449.89", which got hit before price rallied in relief:
In this subsequent chart, we also offered a lower target on February 22nd, as "TG-Low = 385.95 - 2 FEB 2015":
Replaying this last link above shows a sustained relief rally into a newly defined "cloud" or pink-colored zone we had defined and explained as a trading strategy we had developed in the years of trading, called "EAGLE".
(Conclusion made in comment area following chart)
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
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Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
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This brings us to today, where our system has not changed course, and the environment for bitcoin has in fact further deteriorated. In the many public and private comments we had received through Facebook, Twitter and TradingView, the most common reaction had been doubt with trader's own reasoning backed with technicals and fundamentals evidence. We also were subjected to some humor, and at times plain anger. But we hope that in this downward journey into the depth of bitcoin abysmal dwelling, the junior trader is learning at least one thing, which is to "plan the trade, and trade the plan", regardless of the noise, interference and verbal interdictions slapping your screen.
We won't be as brash as saying: "Told you so!", but we will let you review the calls we made and the position we maintained consistently, despite all the commotion and emotion surrounding the past few months ever since we delved into our predictive analysis and forecasting of the Bitcoin.
Here is for your review, once more:
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
Follow our signals, analysis and forecast on TWITTER:
- Alias; @4xForecaster
"plan the trade, and trade the plan" is my new motto.
Although I should mention, the replay buttons currently don't bring you all the way forward in time on those older charts ;-)
Note also that the other thinner lines are momental lines and independent of the thick red line (if you use the "Make Mine" option, you will easily manipulate my chart and verify that the thick and thin lines are made of a distinctly different "mind", one representing a static geometry (thick), while the others are based on a dynamic and sustained rate of price across the entire chart, hence "momental lines" - Answering more than you asked, but this is simply preempting any discovery on your part regarding the difference in these lines.
Also, looking into my prop strat system, there is still no indication of any early market reversal. So, all things being considered, the chart remains bearish.
Hope this helps.
Here too, I hope this helps.
David Alcindor, MOD.
In this particular case, the predictive analysis I use to define a trend, reversal and target remain unchanged.
However, if price was to cross past the EAGLE zone (here, 618.21 to 593.59 range), it would put by bearish stance on guard.
Only a "BACA" (i.e.: "Break Above, Close Above") relative to 646.00 would prompt me to abandon my bearish stance, although this would rely on price, independent of my system, which I would expect would turn its bias as well, and would provide a new target to the upside.
Until then, there is no reason for me to be concerned about changing the directional bias and writing another piece with a new bullish tone.
Hope this helps.