A Classical Tale Of "Told You So"? | $BTC #Bitcoin #Litecoin

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
2525 14 6

This past December 2013, we forecast the following targets:

1 - 15 DEC 2013
BTCUSD             (MtGox): TG-1 = 270.61 at a time when price was about $954.00 - See chart and replay the price action by clicking several times over the right arrow in the chart:

2 - 13 DEC 2013:
BTCGBP             (MtGox): TG-1 = 170.89 at a time when price was about $561.00 - Here too, see chart and replay the price action by clicking several times over the right arrow in the chart:

In fact, while the bitcoin             market gained resiliency, our system offered alternative bullish targets, but only TWO were ever reached dead on:
1 - $989.27
2 - 1028.75

In fact, in that same chart we had already defined a "Potential Conversion Line", which if crossed, would cause price to collapse and convert that intermediate bullish market into a bearish market. What ensued was exactly just that: price crossed, reached towards our first bearish target at 797.02, and never looked back.

In fact, price kept on going and going all the way to a consolidation ... where to? Well, exactly right at the December 15th bearish-most target at 270.61.

Feel free to replay once more and reminisce:

BTCUSD             - Bitstamp:

Looking at the other exchange, and once we decided that the market had turned, we shared with traders our bearish directional bias. While most of the bitcoin             traders with whom we shared these charts remain quite dubious as to our methodology and rationale, we were only able to convince them of the accuracy of our forecast, but not of the continued bearish strength which would bring price to ever abysmal levels.

Here for instance, on February 10th 2014, we gave our first bearish target, "TG-1 = 449.89", which got hit before price rallied in relief:

In this subsequent chart, we also offered a lower target on February 22nd, as "TG-Low = 385.95 - 2 FEB 2015":

Replaying this last link above shows a sustained relief rally into a newly defined "cloud" or pink-colored zone we had defined and explained as a trading strategy we had developed in the years of trading, called "EAGLE".

(Conclusion made in comment area following chart)


David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & forecasting

Follow our forecasts, signals and analyses on Twitter
Alias: @4xForecaster

Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
David Alcindor
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Hi David. BTC BACA 646 and 649.84 on latest 4 hour. Is it now bullish? Thnx and best wishes, Nick
My advice to all readers: "Free cheese is only in a mousetrap".
Use your own brain guys, don't listen to any experts, it could cost you money.
Hi David, the price has just passed the $600, can it be because the ukraine -russia situation?
can a start of a small war reverse the trend to bullish?

Hello @amit.magen.54 - My predictive analysis methodology and forecasting strategy assume that all is discounted in the price. So far, there is no fundamental event that has perturbed any of the forecast in this crypto-currency, or any other charts I recently analyzed in Forex, indices and commodities. In fact, most of them have seen price precipitating towards the targets.

In this particular case, the predictive analysis I use to define a trend, reversal and target remain unchanged.

However, if price was to cross past the EAGLE zone (here, 618.21 to 593.59 range), it would put by bearish stance on guard.

Only a "BACA" (i.e.: "Break Above, Close Above") relative to 646.00 would prompt me to abandon my bearish stance, although this would rely on price, independent of my system, which I would expect would turn its bias as well, and would provide a new target to the upside.

Until then, there is no reason for me to be concerned about changing the directional bias and writing another piece with a new bullish tone.

Hope this helps.

David Alcindor
Your target is still $270 before trend reverses?
4xForecaster RamonOfSouza
@RamonOfSouza - As the text suggests explicitly, there is no change in direction until the system says there is, in which case it will call for a new plan of trade - David
Nxxtft 4xForecaster
The price just went above the resistance line. Does it mean the direction has changed?
Hi, @Nxxtft - The thick red line represents an internal line, as compared to an external that would originate from the structure up above (see where price crested at 824.70, which would represents a departure point of a parallel line to that thick one and should be used as THE resistance marker).

Note also that the other thinner lines are momental lines and independent of the thick red line (if you use the "Make Mine" option, you will easily manipulate my chart and verify that the thick and thin lines are made of a distinctly different "mind", one representing a static geometry (thick), while the others are based on a dynamic and sustained rate of price across the entire chart, hence "momental lines" - Answering more than you asked, but this is simply preempting any discovery on your part regarding the difference in these lines.

Also, looking into my prop strat system, there is still no indication of any early market reversal. So, all things being considered, the chart remains bearish.

Hope this helps.

David Alcindor
@Nxxtft - One more thing: Price is currently rallying into the "EAGLE", which is the pink-colored zone I had defined as a probable level of resistance where price is expected to visit. That area has a specific range, and should alarm the trader of the strength of bulls in this case if it were crossed. However, the structure-high that defines the top above that range should be your "line in the sand", so to speak.

Here too, I hope this helps.


David Alcindor, MOD.
A-class analysis, yet again David... Your contributions have been invaluable instruments of my learning these past few months. It's unfathomable to think what may have happened had I not converted from bull to bear while we hung at such a lofty high coming out of an equally unfathomable rally last year... All news worth mentioning will make it's tiny mark on the charts, and if we zoom out far enough, it all bleeds together into a string of raw, continuous price action -- our only proof that the news was ever worth mentioning in the first place.

"plan the trade, and trade the plan" is my new motto.

Although I should mention, the replay buttons currently don't bring you all the way forward in time on those older charts ;-)
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