As I'm starting to see my charts get much more popular, I thought I'd write a small piece about who I am, what I do in this space and where Bitcoin will be going in my opinion for the month of July.
I have been trading equities for close to 11 years now. I am thoroughly diversified in the American Stock Market, FOREX, Commodities and Cryptocurrencies market. I currently track 7 of the worlds largest (and to me most important) world Indexes, as well as about 70 different assets of the classes I stated before.
Before I get into this piece, I'd like to formally state, I am NOT a financial advisor and this is NOT financial advice. Everything I do on this page is for paper trading purposes only.
Cryptocurrency is obviously the fastest growing asset class in the entire world. Since BTC's inception the rate of return of profit which people have seen has completely shattered any other asset class on the face of the Earth, but the one thing that I consistently see and worry about the most is the level of disinformation, misconstrued knowledge and overall ignorance of what is actually happening in this market. I am very much ANTI-MOONBOY, which this space still seems so full of. This may hurt to hear for you guys, but if you are in that ideological camp, you are more than welcome to learn from my Youtube channel, trading guide, charts and opinions.
Over the last 3 years I've worked on 3 coin/token projects and 1 exchange that I'm not going to mention here because I want that to be insulated from my work on this platform. I only say this because I have a LOT of experience in the development of this space. Politically, morally and financially. One of my largest concerns for cryptocurrency is that the majority of people I see and many I've been talking to on here believe that cryptocurrency is an asset protected from the current financial crisis our world is going through. I need everyone to understand right now how wrong that actually is.
I will give you a secret to my trading strategies that I think everyone should take a deeper look into and consider. When I look at assets of ANY kind, 80% of what I'm looking for is technical analysis or what's actually happening in the actual financial aspect of the space. 10% is fundamental analysis or what the company or asset actually does and how it is trying to grow. 10% is sentiment analysis, which is how people feel about the asset/security/coin/token. I do thorough research on each perspective before I start to invest or trade anything. Here's where I see too many people getting hung up right now.
1) A solid majority of people who predominantly invest in cryptocurrencies believe they're insulated and uncorrelated from the traditional markets. Over the last year this has put so many traders accounts in their graves. As someone who is looking at the bigger picture of the world market every day, I promise you, ALL MARKETS ARE CORRELATED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. I will explain why further on in this post.
2) Technical analysis is the most important form of analysis, I could NEVER disagree with that, but you cannot trade technicals easy when the fundamental market system is broken. When I give my analysis for the month of July I will explain why this is.
3) Remember that on average Bitcoin has see 82% drops before the end of each bare market cycle it has had. We have only gone down roughly 70 give or take a couple percent since our last all time high.
4) We are currently going through MULTIPLE events that Bitcoin has never been tested through in its life cycle. A war time economy, a monetary tightening cycle and institutional adoption at what may be the worst or best possible timing depending on how you look at it.
So where do I see Bitcoin going in the month of July? Well, let me very clear that I am not a fortune teller, regardless of what the trades I show you guys make me out to be. I wouldn't dare look at where Bitcoin might be in 2 or 3 months, let alone next year. NO ONE WILL EVER KNOW.
This month I am actually changing my own strategies to 70% technical, 20% fundamental & 10% sentiment analysis. Why is this you ask? Well, like I mentioned above the world is going through one of its most serious economic crises since the Great Depression. I think it's absolutely insane to be bullish in these market environments and that's why I've only been involved in intraday positions or maybe even hold for a couple days, as you may have seen in my charts. Let's take a step back and look at what funds Bitcoin , it's countries currencies. Let's take it one step forward. What is the market sentiment of most countries and more importantly the world reserve currency. Right now the U.S. has entered a monetary tightening cycle that Bitcoin has never experienced before. I'm sure some of you who are outside of the U.S. or are uninterested in the U.S. markets aren't so privy to this information. This is when the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates of the markets and asset classes so that they can fight against inflation . They do this whether it works or not, but that's a conversation for another day. Whenever this happens in history a recession is soon to follow. This crashes ALL asset classes and restructures the system, hopefully for the better. As I'm sure most of you have seen our world market economies are in a severe downturn and I believe still have quite a long way to go until we are at a point where we can start to pick up the pieces. This is a rough estimate, but I believe for the traditional markets are about half way done correcting. Yes, only half.
So what does this all mean for Bitcoin? Well, the whales move the market, especially now that institutional investing is the authority of our space. So we need to start thinking like institutions in order to see where Bitcoin will move next. Right now with the world economic crisis at a boiling point it makes perfect sense to me that people are exiting their positions and the price is dropping. Not everyone has the HODL mentality. One thing that I can't wait to see is the recovery period we're going to see of any asset class. It's my own personal opinion that the world reserve currency is even trying to be broken by countries like Russia and China to be replaced eventually by something like a CBDC ( Central Bank Digital Currency) or an eastern based commodity currency, though this is to be seen in the next couple decades. I could go into many more subjects of bearishness, but I think you get the point. Please leave a comment if you'd like to hear more.
As for July, I truly believe we will continue to move downward towards that 11,000 USD - 14,000 USD range. If my statements above aren't enough to at least make you consider what I'm saying, you should probably stay out of this market for now.
Please give me your thoughts.
My best - Watson
I have been trading equities for close to 11 years now. I am thoroughly diversified in the American Stock Market, FOREX, Commodities and Cryptocurrencies market. I currently track 7 of the worlds largest (and to me most important) world Indexes, as well as about 70 different assets of the classes I stated before.
Before I get into this piece, I'd like to formally state, I am NOT a financial advisor and this is NOT financial advice. Everything I do on this page is for paper trading purposes only.
Cryptocurrency is obviously the fastest growing asset class in the entire world. Since BTC's inception the rate of return of profit which people have seen has completely shattered any other asset class on the face of the Earth, but the one thing that I consistently see and worry about the most is the level of disinformation, misconstrued knowledge and overall ignorance of what is actually happening in this market. I am very much ANTI-MOONBOY, which this space still seems so full of. This may hurt to hear for you guys, but if you are in that ideological camp, you are more than welcome to learn from my Youtube channel, trading guide, charts and opinions.
Over the last 3 years I've worked on 3 coin/token projects and 1 exchange that I'm not going to mention here because I want that to be insulated from my work on this platform. I only say this because I have a LOT of experience in the development of this space. Politically, morally and financially. One of my largest concerns for cryptocurrency is that the majority of people I see and many I've been talking to on here believe that cryptocurrency is an asset protected from the current financial crisis our world is going through. I need everyone to understand right now how wrong that actually is.
I will give you a secret to my trading strategies that I think everyone should take a deeper look into and consider. When I look at assets of ANY kind, 80% of what I'm looking for is technical analysis or what's actually happening in the actual financial aspect of the space. 10% is fundamental analysis or what the company or asset actually does and how it is trying to grow. 10% is sentiment analysis, which is how people feel about the asset/security/coin/token. I do thorough research on each perspective before I start to invest or trade anything. Here's where I see too many people getting hung up right now.
1) A solid majority of people who predominantly invest in cryptocurrencies believe they're insulated and uncorrelated from the traditional markets. Over the last year this has put so many traders accounts in their graves. As someone who is looking at the bigger picture of the world market every day, I promise you, ALL MARKETS ARE CORRELATED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. I will explain why further on in this post.
2) Technical analysis is the most important form of analysis, I could NEVER disagree with that, but you cannot trade technicals easy when the fundamental market system is broken. When I give my analysis for the month of July I will explain why this is.
3) Remember that on average Bitcoin has see 82% drops before the end of each bare market cycle it has had. We have only gone down roughly 70 give or take a couple percent since our last all time high.
4) We are currently going through MULTIPLE events that Bitcoin has never been tested through in its life cycle. A war time economy, a monetary tightening cycle and institutional adoption at what may be the worst or best possible timing depending on how you look at it.
So where do I see Bitcoin going in the month of July? Well, let me very clear that I am not a fortune teller, regardless of what the trades I show you guys make me out to be. I wouldn't dare look at where Bitcoin might be in 2 or 3 months, let alone next year. NO ONE WILL EVER KNOW.
This month I am actually changing my own strategies to 70% technical, 20% fundamental & 10% sentiment analysis. Why is this you ask? Well, like I mentioned above the world is going through one of its most serious economic crises since the Great Depression. I think it's absolutely insane to be bullish in these market environments and that's why I've only been involved in intraday positions or maybe even hold for a couple days, as you may have seen in my charts. Let's take a step back and look at what funds Bitcoin , it's countries currencies. Let's take it one step forward. What is the market sentiment of most countries and more importantly the world reserve currency. Right now the U.S. has entered a monetary tightening cycle that Bitcoin has never experienced before. I'm sure some of you who are outside of the U.S. or are uninterested in the U.S. markets aren't so privy to this information. This is when the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates of the markets and asset classes so that they can fight against inflation . They do this whether it works or not, but that's a conversation for another day. Whenever this happens in history a recession is soon to follow. This crashes ALL asset classes and restructures the system, hopefully for the better. As I'm sure most of you have seen our world market economies are in a severe downturn and I believe still have quite a long way to go until we are at a point where we can start to pick up the pieces. This is a rough estimate, but I believe for the traditional markets are about half way done correcting. Yes, only half.
So what does this all mean for Bitcoin? Well, the whales move the market, especially now that institutional investing is the authority of our space. So we need to start thinking like institutions in order to see where Bitcoin will move next. Right now with the world economic crisis at a boiling point it makes perfect sense to me that people are exiting their positions and the price is dropping. Not everyone has the HODL mentality. One thing that I can't wait to see is the recovery period we're going to see of any asset class. It's my own personal opinion that the world reserve currency is even trying to be broken by countries like Russia and China to be replaced eventually by something like a CBDC ( Central Bank Digital Currency) or an eastern based commodity currency, though this is to be seen in the next couple decades. I could go into many more subjects of bearishness, but I think you get the point. Please leave a comment if you'd like to hear more.
As for July, I truly believe we will continue to move downward towards that 11,000 USD - 14,000 USD range. If my statements above aren't enough to at least make you consider what I'm saying, you should probably stay out of this market for now.
Please give me your thoughts.
My best - Watson
