BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I can only say that when I see people calling tops and bottoms, I wonder what information they possess to make such claims. After almost 30 years of trading and charting, I have never attempted to try and call bottoms or tops. I use probability to determine which prices are best to dollar cost average into a stock or crypto. All we can do as responsible chartist is interpret what the volume and price action tell us. I would venture to say that it would be easier to call a top or bottom in a stock where actual financial data are used to value a company. I still haven’t found a way to determine the actual value of a crypto. Without a formula to price a crypto, regulations and or insurance, while that be centralized or decentralized to protect my investment, maybe someone can tell me how they calculate the fair market value of any crypto? And herein lies the biggest problem when speculating a top or a bottom. I understand that some people just want to come to TV and find someone to tell them when to buy and when to sell; make a bunch of money; rinse and repeat. If that person existed, they would be selling that information to make even more money. Charting on TV is as much about ego as it is about the promotion of one’s website, products, and information. Would you give away the SECRET to becoming a gazillionaire in cryptos for FREE?

My charts aren’t pretty, but my analysis is of the highest quality where time and effort is taken to explain my reason for my conclusions. I explain why I use an indicator without the presumption that everyone just knows why certain indicators work together. In fact, I rarely use indicators because there really is no need unless the chartist is going to explain what the indicator is telling the consumer of that information why that indicator is practical for that analysis.

So why do you chart on TV, Biff?

Life has been good to me, and I enjoy charting cryptos because the price action is driven by pure emotion, fake news, celebrity hype, but most importantly, I chart cryptos because I believe the blockchain is here to stay and while most cryptos will be history in the years ahead, some will remain and become mainstream and widely accepted as a real store of value. I want to be where the action is and try my luck. I want to see new charting techniques, and new indicators being scripted to reduce the risk of loss.

Enough with the lecture – I am sure this will get about 100 views but if 1-person is enlightened by my words and begins to learn, on their own, from some of the great chartists on TV, then the time invested in typing these words will be worth it. There is no magic bullet!

BTC on the 4-hr, a deeper look into my last chart of BTC on the daily:

BTC is trading in a trend channel with the Orange dotted primary base still intact (4-data points), and probability suggests it may hold as support.

The upper green trendline has been breached, so it is now a resistance reference. I give it trendlines less weight when they have been breached.

I noted a pennant formation with two solid trendlines at the upper level of the channel. This is a perfect example of how a specific price distribution can be interpreted as BULLISH , or BEARISH ; nonetheless, if you follow me you would have noted the volatility squeeze and may have predicted a volatility move. Notice the price action was driven higher to stop out long positions and they reversed to stop out short positions to clear the boards for the coming price action. This is a common price action volatility play to allow big money to dig in too long or short positions. Never rule out manipulation. Remember someone can see where the stop losses are, and where the buy orders are – JPMorgan can see that information not available to retail commodity traders who trade precious metals so JPM can “clear the boards” to scare the retail investor away. This is common knowledge to PM investors and prevents us from overnight PM trading.

If you follow me on Twitter you received a tweet indicating I was calculating the first 4-hour move on a BULLISH run of about $130.00. The volatility squeeze on the two extended red candles amounts to about $125.00, while not part of the BULLISH move, I was able to calculate the volatility move with some accuracy. This is not a secret, and ANYBODY can do this. If you follow me, you are learning how and why this happens, what formations to look for. This can help you make better decisions on your current position or decide to hold off on an entry or exit. I have successfully predicted volatility moves MANY times in the past, in some cases within a few candles of when they occurred.

BTC is still BULLISH on the daily, even if the price falls to $37XX. XX or trades to the orange Dotted primary trendline and it holds as support. I also noted in a Tweet that the last 2 bullish moves happened around 8 days indicating if this is institutional buying and past proves future, we should see another volatility move by Feb 26-28. Since the current trend is a continuation, probability lends itself to a bullish move.

My gut tells me we stall at $4400 if we go north. Color me skeptical. I am concerned about the recent red candle extensions. It portends we can go either direction in the short-term, or we continue to see a nice price distribution sideways to lower and another bullish move.

I am not a BTC investor. I find it easier to manage my altcoins, and the only reason I cover BTC is that the top alt coins are so heavily correlated to BTC and, therefore, I must follow it.

If you enjoy hearing real analysis and want to hang with Biff, consider following me on Twitter , and giving this chart a Thumbs up so people new to charting can hear the truth about charting and maybe some long-time chartist can enlighten me on what technique, or information they possess to make calls like, we have reached bottom, or we have reached top. I really would like to know, in fact, I will pay for that kind of knowledge.


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We have the same break out point:

I'm expecting a 7% drop from here.
Thanks Biff, :-)
+1 Reply
biffbifford jeremy.jacques79
@jeremy.jacques79, Thank you, Jeremy!! I hope I can help, even if it's just a little humor to make this crazy crypto investing a little bit more tolerable!
+1 Reply
@biffbifford, You do, :-)
I normally don't comment, but considering your remarks, I wanted to let you know your write-ups are appreciated. I agree this market is largely driven by emotion, and usually reacts strongly off catalyst news. In this case we have a major ethereum upgrade fork, which can certainly prove to be a significant catalyst. If it is successful, we get a move up, if not we go down. I assume the market will go sideways till the fork (I believe it's sheduled for the 28th).
+4 Reply
@Gruntle, I have high hopes for ETH! I cannot see why every investor shouldn't have a small comfortable amount cryptos in their portfolio. Never more then they are willing to lose. But ETH is definitely on my radar as the future of what could be expected of a crypto. Thanks for the news on the possible date for ETH's fork. I know it's always a guestimate but falls right in line with my 8 days estimation to the next volatility move. Thank you for your kind words. I didn't want to come off like an A$$-hole because there are some really good chartists on TV; some I bow too, while there are charlatans as well. I'll probably put up an ETH chart in a day or two.


+2 Reply
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