Good morning, traders. The Bitfinex BTCUSD/Binance BTCUSDT premium has now reached $80-$90. Poloniex BTCUSDT, Bittrex BTCUSDT, CEXIO BTCUSD, and HitBTC BTCUSD have joined them now as well. Historically, this type of premium amongst most of these exchanges has been due to withdrawal issues related to the exchange. Most recently we saw this occurring in Q2 2017 as a result of Wells Fargo. The premium on BTCUSDT pairs are most likely attributable to the recent Noble Bank FUD, but that doesn't explain the BTCUSD pairs that are similarly affected. So is there something more going on? After all, if that was the reason for the premium, then why are the other BTCUSDT pairs just now gaining the same premium? It's been weeks since Bitfinex and Binance first showed up with the premium. And, as mentioned, it doesn't explain the BTCUSD pairs' premium on multiple exchanges. Could this be buying pressure out of South Korea? Upbit's BTCUSD price retains an even larger premium at this time. If the market is receiving buying pressure from South Korea, does this mean we should prepare for a breakout to the upside?
Overnight we saw Bitcoin drop and then rebound. While price did close below the July triangle's resistance, the ensuing 4H candle closed on it and the current 4H candle is above it, so we can consider the resistance-turned-support to have held. RSI now sits at 47, just below bullish at 50. MACD remains on the bullish side of centerline, curling up toward the signal line now. This has created a symmetrical triangle since September 25th which we will be watching for the MACD to break out of to the upside. OBV, although dropping with the price drop overnight, continues to trend upward suggesting that the momentum in price appreciation should continue for now.
Not all price drops are equal though. We have to learn to see and then seek to understand what price action and volume are telling us. Stating that price dropped tells us absolutely nothing. Why did it drop? What is the context? That is what you should be striving to understand. Switching to the 1H chart (I have provided Bitfinex and Bistamp versions) we can see the noted movements and it appears that we are in accumulation before another push up. The largest volumes appear on the bullish moves, and even last night's dip wasn't significant for bears. It took relatively more effort to drop less distance than it had done throughout this TR. This tells us that demand is outweighing supply at the moment. In other words, this drop as a test of supply tells us that supply is minimal compared to demand in this range and price is ready to move up a bit at least. RSI dipped into oversold and is now nearing a breakout of the descending broadening wedge. MACD bounced off the ascending support line and is about to create a bullish cross over the signal line. OBV is rising once more (and continues to rise overall). The potential LPS that printed on that dip was also a bullish SFP, as noted by the break below the horizontal blue line and subsequent close above it. This is a sign of bullishness. If this is not convincing enough, then take a look at alts and you will see that they hardly reacted to this drop.
We continue to expect upward movement with price's near-term targets, based on the TR, being $6628, $6657, $6792, and $6826. A drop below $6387 and then $6324 signals further downward movement. Longer-term targets can be found on previous analysis that we have published.
Overnight we saw Bitcoin drop and then rebound. While price did close below the July triangle's resistance, the ensuing 4H candle closed on it and the current 4H candle is above it, so we can consider the resistance-turned-support to have held. RSI now sits at 47, just below bullish at 50. MACD remains on the bullish side of centerline, curling up toward the signal line now. This has created a symmetrical triangle since September 25th which we will be watching for the MACD to break out of to the upside. OBV, although dropping with the price drop overnight, continues to trend upward suggesting that the momentum in price appreciation should continue for now.
Not all price drops are equal though. We have to learn to see and then seek to understand what price action and volume are telling us. Stating that price dropped tells us absolutely nothing. Why did it drop? What is the context? That is what you should be striving to understand. Switching to the 1H chart (I have provided Bitfinex and Bistamp versions) we can see the noted movements and it appears that we are in accumulation before another push up. The largest volumes appear on the bullish moves, and even last night's dip wasn't significant for bears. It took relatively more effort to drop less distance than it had done throughout this TR. This tells us that demand is outweighing supply at the moment. In other words, this drop as a test of supply tells us that supply is minimal compared to demand in this range and price is ready to move up a bit at least. RSI dipped into oversold and is now nearing a breakout of the descending broadening wedge. MACD bounced off the ascending support line and is about to create a bullish cross over the signal line. OBV is rising once more (and continues to rise overall). The potential LPS that printed on that dip was also a bullish SFP, as noted by the break below the horizontal blue line and subsequent close above it. This is a sign of bullishness. If this is not convincing enough, then take a look at alts and you will see that they hardly reacted to this drop.
We continue to expect upward movement with price's near-term targets, based on the TR, being $6628, $6657, $6792, and $6826. A drop below $6387 and then $6324 signals further downward movement. Longer-term targets can be found on previous analysis that we have published.