We all know the history of the bitcoin "100$ on bitcoin -0.21% years ago and today I would be a millionaire". Or at least, so they say around.
But is it really like that?
Obviously the answer is not simple and remains in a gray area among those that we could expect.
Around too many voices, too much confusion.
So I thought to make a point of the exhaustive situation, from the general to the particular.
For long-term analysis
this is the situation between mid-2013 and mid-2015
inversion in August 2015, 1 year and 9 months after the bubble. Could this be the fate that awaits bitcoin?
Note how the times of the oscillations have reversed the inversion of the trend and how this phenomenon has recurred in recent months
(The long low shadow circled is not counted because on that day the bitcoin exchange rate decreases by 30%, to the level of $ 600).
similar situation to the current one. The same period of time and the same percentage change in price.
And finally, after 3 years and 1 month the price of the bitcoin returns to the previous highs.
And beyond. 348 days after the story are repeating. + 1500%.
The future could therefore be bullish, with a real inversion in mid-2019, according to the cyclic just considered.
This could be the scenario that awaits the fate of the bitcoin
In the medium term (July-October2018) instead, the cyclical analysis gives us a clearer view of the temporal constant:
By combining the cycles with Elliott's Wave Theory we can see how the bearish tendency, in the medium term, can continue to be burdened by an ascending a-b-c in the short, which can also bring the price to the old resistance levels 11000-12000.
snapshot
Supports and rasistances with medium-long moving averages and maximum / minimum pivot last 80 days
Retracement of fibonacci, do we confirm the importance of these prices?
will the medium-term trend reverse between the months of August and September and then return bearish over the long term, up to the mid-2019 reversal?
In the short term (July-August) two scenarios open before us:
- The bearish scenario, but not before the rebound
-The bullish scenario, towards the resistance
- First targets in zone 8000 usd if the long position is opened;
- I wait for the conclusion of the uptrend (in all cases, therefore), bearish targets below 5500usd.
at that point the scenario may slightly change, perhaps a period of stasis in the range of the first resistance.
Conclusions
It is certain that a very small number of people have managed to get over 70000% more than the invested capital. A part of these people has certainly succeeded thanks to talent and preparation. But the majority succeeded in the task by forgetting them.
As we can see, the oscillations of the bitcoin -from 2013 to today- are deep.
Any hike of -70% -40% could be the good excuse to close.
"The chances that the majority can grab everything and run away are high and there is a limit to everything", you could have thought. At that point, maybe you came out well, even if you're not a millionaire yet.
The only way to get out well is knowing exactly what to do and what can be expected from the future, knowing how to manage the situations that will come without being too surprised.
But is it really like that?
Obviously the answer is not simple and remains in a gray area among those that we could expect.
Around too many voices, too much confusion.
So I thought to make a point of the exhaustive situation, from the general to the particular.
For long-term analysis
this is the situation between mid-2013 and mid-2015
Note how the times of the oscillations have reversed the inversion of the trend and how this phenomenon has recurred in recent months
(The long low shadow circled is not counted because on that day the bitcoin exchange rate decreases by 30%, to the level of $ 600).
This could be the scenario that awaits the fate of the bitcoin
In the medium term (July-October2018) instead, the cyclical analysis gives us a clearer view of the temporal constant:
snapshot
In the short term (July-August) two scenarios open before us:
- The bearish scenario, but not before the rebound
-The bullish scenario, towards the resistance
- I wait for the conclusion of the uptrend (in all cases, therefore), bearish targets below 5500usd.
at that point the scenario may slightly change, perhaps a period of stasis in the range of the first resistance.
Conclusions
It is certain that a very small number of people have managed to get over 70000% more than the invested capital. A part of these people has certainly succeeded thanks to talent and preparation. But the majority succeeded in the task by forgetting them.
As we can see, the oscillations of the bitcoin -from 2013 to today- are deep.
Any hike of -70% -40% could be the good excuse to close.
"The chances that the majority can grab everything and run away are high and there is a limit to everything", you could have thought. At that point, maybe you came out well, even if you're not a millionaire yet.
The only way to get out well is knowing exactly what to do and what can be expected from the future, knowing how to manage the situations that will come without being too surprised.
Comment:
this is an idea posted in May, for the new idea visit look
