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Previous analysis/position: “Expecting a 1-4 day correction following the daily red 9 and that is also right in line with the weekly finishing it’s 4 candle correction. This weekend will likely be the time to start selling” | Short ETH:USD from $450 (read more here) & Short ETH:BTC from 0.0554 (read more here)
Patterns: Descending triangle + channel
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $6,300 | R = $6,500
BTCUSDSHORTS: Daily shooting star forming at resistance. Long:52% | Short: 48%
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0049%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -7.63% | 26 = -9.85%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -7.16% | 128 = -14.78%
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496
Candlestick analysis: Trading above bullish harami, currently forming doji. 3d hammer.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price below bearish cloud. Still has a bullish TK’ Cross. Recent bearish TK’ Cross on 12h, bearish kumo twist looks imminent
TD’ Sequential: 4th week of the 1-4 candle correction which followed the 9. R-3 < R-2 on 3d. G-2 not yet above G-1 on daily.
Visible Range: POC over last 24h = $6,470 with low volume node > $6,600 | POC over last 5 days = $6,491 | Low volume nodes at $6,650 and $6,800 | POC over last month = $7,433 with low volume node at $6,800 | POC over last year = $8,250 with high volume nodes from $6,500 - $8,650
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = +/- 0 | 1w = -12.95% | 2w = -21.59% | 1m = -10.79%
Bollinger Bands: Testing bottom band on daily. Below MA with room to fall on 3d and weekly.
Trendline: Connects 7/31 to 8/7 on the daily
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: UP = $8,316 | DOWN = $6,090. 2 down fractals broken on this recent move.
On Balance Volume: Falling harder and faster than price, indicating that $5,900 support is about to break down.
ADX: ADX is starting to creep upward with higher highs and higher lows. Remains < 25. -DI is no longer diverging from +DI and is starting to pullback.
Chaikin Money Flow: Fell straight from 0.22 to negative territory. Bull div in weekly is blowing my mind, just made another higher high.
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.71 | D = 43 and just made another lower high
Stoch: Recent buy signal on daily. Recent bearish cross on weekly.
Summary: Will be watching closely as the price tries to breakthrough $6,500 which is horizontal and trend resistance. If you are not in a position then I would hold off on opening one right now. Shorting ETH:BTC seems like the best bet right now.
Being -7.63% in relation to the 12 EMA makes me think there is a 75% chance we retest $6,800 - $7,000 before continuing the draw down. That leaves a 25% chance that $6,500 resistance holds and we continue to fall. If that happens then I would expect a bounce from $5,900 before it eventually breaks down.
Previous analysis/position: “Expecting a 1-4 day correction following the daily red 9 and that is also right in line with the weekly finishing it’s 4 candle correction. This weekend will likely be the time to start selling” | Short ETH:USD from $450 (read more here) & Short ETH:BTC from 0.0554 (read more here)
Patterns: Descending triangle + channel
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $6,300 | R = $6,500
BTCUSDSHORTS: Daily shooting star forming at resistance. Long:52% | Short: 48%
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0049%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -7.63% | 26 = -9.85%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -7.16% | 128 = -14.78%
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496
Candlestick analysis: Trading above bullish harami, currently forming doji. 3d hammer.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price below bearish cloud. Still has a bullish TK’ Cross. Recent bearish TK’ Cross on 12h, bearish kumo twist looks imminent
TD’ Sequential: 4th week of the 1-4 candle correction which followed the 9. R-3 < R-2 on 3d. G-2 not yet above G-1 on daily.
Visible Range: POC over last 24h = $6,470 with low volume node > $6,600 | POC over last 5 days = $6,491 | Low volume nodes at $6,650 and $6,800 | POC over last month = $7,433 with low volume node at $6,800 | POC over last year = $8,250 with high volume nodes from $6,500 - $8,650
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = +/- 0 | 1w = -12.95% | 2w = -21.59% | 1m = -10.79%
Bollinger Bands: Testing bottom band on daily. Below MA with room to fall on 3d and weekly.
Trendline: Connects 7/31 to 8/7 on the daily
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: UP = $8,316 | DOWN = $6,090. 2 down fractals broken on this recent move.
On Balance Volume: Falling harder and faster than price, indicating that $5,900 support is about to break down.
ADX: ADX is starting to creep upward with higher highs and higher lows. Remains < 25. -DI is no longer diverging from +DI and is starting to pullback.
Chaikin Money Flow: Fell straight from 0.22 to negative territory. Bull div in weekly is blowing my mind, just made another higher high.
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.71 | D = 43 and just made another lower high
Stoch: Recent buy signal on daily. Recent bearish cross on weekly.
Summary: Will be watching closely as the price tries to breakthrough $6,500 which is horizontal and trend resistance. If you are not in a position then I would hold off on opening one right now. Shorting ETH:BTC seems like the best bet right now.
Being -7.63% in relation to the 12 EMA makes me think there is a 75% chance we retest $6,800 - $7,000 before continuing the draw down. That leaves a 25% chance that $6,500 resistance holds and we continue to fall. If that happens then I would expect a bounce from $5,900 before it eventually breaks down.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/