Bitcoin,at the most important time of the year!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi guys! i nailed pretty much every move, but this time no! i did think it will go up to 68, and 69, but after another retracement to 6300 levels. but, daily ichimoku clouds , which the resistance wall was thinner from 27th was the name of the game, and 2 weeks before i thought that would be a play that could come. a boost from 27th~30th. i drew a chart before in comments about the scenario that would play. anyway, my stoploss was cut for opening shorts at 6550. i need to be more humble. believing in indicators too much.

so from today, and for the next week or so, is the most important time for btc , which will decide its way up or down.

check resistance each level.

we penetrated daily 50ma, now resisted at 100ma.

we have the downtrendline resistance at 6820 and 6930, if we manage to go over that we have the falling wedge line resistance at 7150. after that daily 200ma is 7300ish, finally weekly ichimoku baseline is at 7800. i believe if we manage to surpass daily 200ma, it is a very good sign that market is reversing, if we manage to even surpass weekly ichimoku baseline at 7800ish, go up to 8k, pullback only to 7800ish, we will be very much likely reversing from then to upper levels. alts are jumping, especially ripple and stellar lumen, which indicates a good signal, so we can think that these alt coin bottoms can be put. however, many alts are still in their downtrend descending triangles, which, we cannot be sure with their confidence. as we see btc , its good to see this as a falling wedge pattern, which, in the end, will reward us. for that, i still think a drop to 5k~5.4k is still in the cards, BUT! if we manage to go over 7800 and to 8k, i believe the falling wedge had already made a jump, do not need much more bottoms from then. if we breakdown from here, below 6100, we will test 5k areas.

so as i commented before, if we break above 7.1k, we can buy at pullbacks(better 7.3~4k), or we can wait for the market to drop more. if we see clear bear divergence we open shorts. 1~2week from now, will be very, very volatile, which, the market would go in one way. heavy drop , or heavy bull run. observing the indicators, which i cannot believe too much, tells that 6.8~7.0k area can be the top price for this move. but who knows. btc , we should never undermine, or your shorts get stoplossed. for now, i do think btc will try a higher high above 6800 in coming days.

i need to take some time to observe more, see where the direction would take us. i will upload any trading plan, long or short in comments. please feel free to ask any questions.

happy trading!

Comment: 3DAY time frame. according to the past, where, btc spike went up to ichimoku baseline, we can assume that btc would make a move at 7100~7200, if followed by pattern, early october. let's see if this pattern still works this time.
Comment: i entered short at 6768, sold at 6623,and what? its going to 6500 zone, what a scam move! 1hr ichimoku baseline, thought that would be a support, but 4hr green cloud is a support now. lets see what happens. i went long at 6580 now, lets see.
Comment: Guys tomorrow at saturday when btc bounces up open shorts again. Entry From 6720~6780/stoploss is 6840. This btc move is volatile but i do believe in bear divergences always work. It is going to print that,along with etf decision at 30th.now is hard to decide where the market would go,but i still think testing 69/70 even 71/72 is still in the cards.but now in weekends,that is why after you sell longs you switch to shorts.
Comment: one more thing you guys should know. btc is making a bull pennant yes, which can break above. so now it is not so dangerous to go long because it will make a lower high. but see last time 6800 pump, it did make a bull pennant, lh, hl's, but it broke down. for bulls:30th, October 1st ichimoku clouds are easy to break above, so it has chances to go 7k or even higher. bear divergences, if it can break above 6840, even though rsi is low, that wouldn't mean it would go down so fast. another thing is that, on 30th, usually in a bearish candle month, it pumps at the end of the day. so check it out, be careful with shorts, 30th there could be a pump. hard to say which way now.
Comment: guys i think you an open long position for btc for short term, if lucky long term. 6600~6650/target 6720~50/if breaks 6840 above hold. for shorts, lets see. just like the chart above, this is difficult for now to judge. i have scalped btc like 4 times, gave up just bought it again holding.
Comment: ok, i didn't update charts and my positions. so i went long at 6580, stoplossed it, went long again at 6457 and i hold that, sold little at 65 zone. very very very timid situation here. i would call long position again. open long 6450/6480/6520. target 6700/6900/7100. 3 numbers are all resistances, which you must take profit at each level, because i think we need to break 7.3 level, to be really going to a bull run, before that i guess it still risks a bart move. opening longs, are i think, still valild until when 6700 comes. if at that point we drop, we break 6500, we open shorts. if not we hold, take profit at each level. all the best.
Comment: ok, most important time for btc now! next week! huge important times! check purple, green, blue lines. 3 scenarios. 1. we touch 6700, retrace, but drop below 6600, and retest, we open shorts. 2. it goes to 6900/6950, retrace to 67 or 68, cannot go over drop. 1,2 scenarios short position is needed. but i do think that if we break 6850, we would go to 7.0/7.1k. 3. we break 6900, go to 7100 even, retrace to 69 go over daily 200ma at 7300. we are going bull run. so 50:50 chance it breaks up, or breaks down. so you must trade carefully at now days. this move can be rejected hard, go to 5800, or this move penetrates above hard. both moves would be a very massive move. so becareful opening shorts, or longs at these zones.
Comment: most important day has come guys. the ichimoku cloud tomorrow is the most important, best to penetrate upwards. so downtrend line, 6720/30, if we pass that 6850 is waiting. if we close over 6840/50 4hr, we will go up. if we touch 6720/30, but cannot go up in the next 24 hours, we risk a drop. now times, do not buy new coins, do not open long until full confirmation. if we touch 6720/30, breaks 6600, open short. if we touch 6850, but breaks 6650, open short in coming days. on contrary, if we break above 6850, confirm in 4hr, you can long.
Comment: weekly candle. last week we closed at 6711, in coming closing hours check if price is below 6711, or above that. above that, more confident of going long, below that, a drop can be risked, not right away, but at coming days, times. so watch out. i am holding btc long position from 6458, sold some at 65, 66 levels, plan to sell most of them at 6680 or 6700 levels.
Comment: btc closed at 6600ish at weekly, monthly, does not look good. it risks falling down. volume not coming in. i entered shorts short at 6624 for now.
Comment: ok, sold shorts. i still believe btc will try to test the downtrend resistance line, around 6700/6730. check 3 lines for scenarios.
Comment: those of you using bitmex. xrp short position. 1st entry:8750 sat, 2nd:9000, 3rd:9200~9300. stoploss:over 10000 sat. target 7000/5500/4500 sat. hold 1~4week.
Comment: btc short position. weak volume, weak divergence, daily cloud bearish. enter 6600, 6640/6650, 6680, 6700. target 6400/6420, after we see bounce. if cannot penetrate 6550/6600, we short again. stoploss is 6750, more likely 6800.
Comment: if btc breaks 6570 and down, the following price can be considered to make a bull div. at 6458, or 6300. 6300 is below monthly 20ma, so if that price comes we need to assume price will decline after a bounce. also if we close lower then 6570/80 tomorrow, lower then 21ema daily, it can indicate a sell off can come, so be careful.btc can break down, but it can also defend 6570 and bounce up.
i sold my shorts at 64 zone now. 4hr stoch has bottomed, potential bounce can come from 64 zone. pink box for short entries, blue for long entries. check price level.
Comment: if we cannot surpass 6530/40 and go up, we may be making somewhat two patterns. one, a falling wedge, with target 6250~6300, second, a broadening descending triangle. which, target 6.1 and lower. even though, we have bitfinex maintenance going, so nothing for sure about these channels now. i have entered short position at 6488(bitmex), testing to see if this is a descending falling channel, will stoploss or close tight if tomorrow we close higher then 6530(bitfinex).
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