Nervertheless, the signs becoming more and more intense lately.
1) 21 EMA
The 21 Exponantial Moving Average on the 4 hour chart acting like a good support recently and we are acutally bouncing of it again.
2) 200 EMA
Currently we are bouncing of the 200 Exponantial Movin Average on the , which is now a strong support.
The last two charts are showing that we are currently above the on the 4 hour and , which indicates that we are on an uptrend.
4) Last Longterm Resistance
We had two longterm resistance lines of a big symmetrical triangle (black and red line). We hovered some time above the black line and spiked upwards. Despite of the last downwave (FUD), we are still above the red line, which is acting as a strong support. You also have to bear in mind, that we are way above the red line on a non log chart!
Furthermore, we are holding the support at a price nearby 7800$.
5) Regression Trend
The Regression Trend shows the standard deviations away from a base line. If we spike out of the channel, we have a high likelihood for a downwave, which we had. Furthermore, the base line is acting like a support which also can be touched soon.
are acting like a very good trend forcast. The 2x line of the big upwards was recently a good support resistance line.
Furthermore, if I make an even smaller , than we are currently at the end of last line. Hence, a upwards move is very likely.
7) Head and Shoulders
We are able to make a small in the near future. The neckline should be nearby 8250$ and 8350$.
Currently, I see at this times often the following count. Starting was a , an expanded 3rd wave and a 5th wave over the last big resistance. Afterwards we had an correction and in theory we should see now the next upwards wave.
The count is valid and it doesn't destroy the rules of an .
But something is looking odd for me with this count!
We have an extended 3rd wave, but under the 1.168 Fibonacci Extention and after such strong upwards candles, we see only a truncated 5th wave? That makes not a lot of sense for me.
Futhermore, searching for subwaves of an smaller inside of wave 3 is difficult. I can construct them, but there are really ugly.
I like perfect Fibonacci Targets and currently we don't have them.
A possible count:
What if we haven't finished the 3rd wave already. I can construct a perfect sub with perfect matching targets of the bigger one!
It's hard to tell what's the real count without overcounting. We also can argue that we have just a big , which is acting like only wave 1. Who knows?!
A lot of people who argue that we are heading downwards to 5000$ claim, that we have only an correction of the last downwards wave.
To be honest, it's still possible!
BUT the C wave is looking to strong for me, eventhough we made a .
The is increasing, we are above the longterm resistance lines, the news getting better, the overall sentiment is changing to a positive direction and the ETF's are in everybodies minds.
It's looking good, but still be cautious!
We have reatraced exactly to the 0.618 Fibonacci Level and heading down again.
IF 6800$, which is also a 0.618 retracement, doesn't hold, then we should have a bigger downwave to at least the longterm channel with a target nearby 5300$-5000$.
This is a double zigzag corrctive wave. The only problem with this count is, that the Fibonacci Ratios are far off and the Elliott Wave count of the red waves is on the threshold to be invalidated. Only if we ignore the wicks, that count could work.
Currently we are in a small channel and heading to the 0.618 Fibonacci target at nearby 6800$. We have still room for one more zigzag move. After that we should be oversold.
Despite of the bearish or bullish count, I'll expect a reaction at 6800$.
Don't get me wrong. IF 6800$ holds, my bullish count still would be valid. Although we have to see a good incease in Volume!
IF we break 6800$ downwards, than we have a high likelihood for a bigger downwave.
The longer i'm observing the chart, the more bearish it becomes.
The red arrow was our expected target, unfortunately we dropped hardly at this point.
We've dropped below the pitchfork at formed a parallel channel.
An extention of the green ABC wave ends at 6500$. The possible blue Elliott Wave would also end at 6500$. Both targets fit with the channel and the next horizontal support.
The problem with a price nearby 6500$ is, that it would be a 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement which would invalidate the bullish count.
Be cautious with the previous target of 6800$!
But TA has not the purpuse to be always right, it's more like to have all possibilities in mind and be prepared on every outcome.
Time will tell whos TA is right. :-)