Bitcoin Daily Update (day 269)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.

Previous analysis: “This is a clear no trade zone for me and I will leave my small orders set at $2,700 - $3,000”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434

Patterns: Broke through bear channel and currently testing it for support
Horizontal support and resistance: $4,000 is expected to become support | R: $4,346
BTCUSDSHORTS: Found resistance at the down trendline . Actually surprised that it didn’t pull back much harder from this last pump.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.2686%! That is almost 1% ROI per day for holding a long on BTC at these prices...
Short term trend (4 day MA): Price close above = bullish
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Price close above = bullish | Watch for it to flatten and then roll up.
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Trending down and waiting at $5,500 = Bearish
Overall trend: Closing above the 9 MA indicates that a return to the 34 MA is to be expected.
Volume: If this pump continues then I will be watching for volume to decrease as price rises to provide confirmation of dead cat bounce.
FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $,4056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Bullish extended range. 4h spinning tops.
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen waiting at $4,930 - $5,100 | Watching for 1h cloud to turn into support.
TD’ Sequential: Currently on a 4h r9. If daily G2 can trade above the G1 it would also break the SAR .
Visible Range: Surprised / disappointed that we didn’t fill the gap before pumping. Means that price bounced before my buy orders filled.
Price action: 24h: +8.81%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA is right in line with daily Tenkan-Sen at $4,930
Trendline: Broke through 4h bear channel and currently testing it for support
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Bullish
Parabolic SAR: Very, very intrigued by the fact that this pump did not breakthrough the SAR after getting about as close as you can get.
RSI: Back above 30. Expecting a return to 50 before more down.
Stochastic: Starting to diverge in a bullish manner after a couple false signals.
Last Day Rule: Setup day today. Breakthrough of $4,354 would be trigger day and that would be potentially be in confluence with daily green 2 above a green 1 and a parabolic SAR break through.

Summary: Love how precise the parabolic SAR has been over the last two candles, perfectly calling the top of each. With the close above the 4 & 9 MA I would be looking for long entries over the next 24 hours by setting orders on the 9 MA.

However the SAR holding as resistance has given me a good reason to hold off and wait for further confirmation. If we can breakthrough the daily SAR then that would also be in confluence with the daily TD Sequential which is currently on a green 2 that hasn’t been able to trade above the green 1. It would also be the trigger day for Peter Brandt’s 3 day rule.

BTCUSDSHORTS’ being at resistance and paying ~ 20X the normal funding rate is a strong indication that we will see a squeeze. I still think that a bounce to $5,000 - $6,000 is highly likely and will be looking to capitalize on that move.

I will be watching for a bullish crossover with the 4 and 9 MA along with a breakthrough of the daily Parabolic SAR as final confirmations to enter.
Loving your updates mate
+2 Reply
Sawcruhteez AbunduntiaTrades
@AbunduntiaTrades, Thanks for the kind words Dave!
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