Well Monday morning US really did provide us with a bit of a bump, and not in our preferred direction of up.
We have seen sustained selling and are now below my support trendline and have had a daily close just below the line. This is very and would have me changing to a bias if it wasn’t for the 200ema (The Green line) on the 4 H chart sitting straight below. For me right now direction is NEUTRAL until I get a 4 H close above the support trendline (Red line) or below the 200 .
A close below the 200 would bring 9750 back into focus, while a close above the old Support line would have us looking back at, our resistance Trendline around 11450, and then back towards 11750. At the moment we are in the triangle between the Red line sloping up and the Black line slopping down, with the 200EMA 4H, giving a little space to the downside. A clear break of the Triangle in either direction is our next hint of direction.
Even after the break of the Triangle I will be a little cautious while I wait for direction to be clearer here for me. If I have to look in my crystal Ball and pick a direction it would be up, for reasons I will post in my next BTC piece on BTC Fundamentals.
This is of course the range my first ever analysis piece said we might spend some time in. Still I have expected a better test if the top side by now and will watch with interest.
But we are very close to pushing to some lower levels. We need buying here.