DollarsAndSense

BTC Daily analysis: Volatility ahead as we decide direction

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD             D Analysis

Hello followers,

Lets take a couple of minutes and have a look at the king of them all the BTC             , and see where it stands on a Daily Chart , and what the potential moves are coming up. I hope you enjoy the analysis i hope to update it daily as a road map for BTC             trading.

You can see clearly on our Daily BTC             chart that we have once again closed below the Trend line (Black line) that dominates our BTc             chart. We have yet to have a daily chart close above the line and must remain BEARISH until we get a close above on a 4H and eventually D Chart.

WE can see the two previous touches on the line (Circled) have been followed by two aggressive selling days and this is such a key level we do need to see a break or we can expect to see more aggressive selling bringing support in at 9750, then the 200 ema , and potentially the pink dotted line at $8,000.

Technically this chart desperately needs a new low, we have the seen the low at $6,000 and since then haven’t had a new low formed to give us a base to build off. For me a new low should have the 2 bars on each sode of it be above it. So yesterday’s bar could potentially be that bar. We would need the low of tomorrows bar to stay above the low of todays             for me to be convinced. Once we have a new low formed we can start and build upwards with a lot more confidence. Price going below yesterday’s low would mean we are still in search of a new low, and we could well be going down a bit more.

If we can get a close on a 4h Chart above the trend line , we can start and be cautiously Bullish , with a daily close above required for confirmation. Ideally we would like a Daily close above and then a retest on say a 4H Chart to get us in and long. If we get Bullish again targets are $10,780, $11,835, $12,762 and $14,937. Once this trend line breaks and eventually it will, I would expect an accelerated move up (especially if we have a new low forming).

In summary I expect a bit of action in the next few days with the break or bounce of the trend-line on a 4H chart being a catalyst for some volume and volatility to come flying back in.

I will have some more trades for followers later today.
Comment: Crucial BTC level being tested right now.

Our Long term trendline is being tested as we speak, should be in for a fascinating few hours here.
Comment: Our trend line has been broken by a decisive candle (closing by the top) on a 4 Hour chart, and we are now making rapid progress to our first resistance at 10776.00. ITs a vert BULLISH sign, but we have seen close above on a 4H chart, and below on a D chart lead to a big sell.
I would like to see a pullback, and test of a level (maybe 50 EMA or trendline) from above before i looked to get involved long.
Comment: Here is the right chart
Comment: If we got a break and then test of 10776 from above, i could look to buy. I would need a decisive buying bar on a shorter Time frame.
Comment: Its always great news when a move survives the early US session volume.
We have now had three 4H candles close above the (previously broken) trendline which is Bullish, but i will be happier we are confirmed BULLS when we get a 4H close above our next Horizontal level 10776, or our Daily close above the trendline. The market al;most seems suspended while everyone watches the levels to see what happens.
I expect it to stay pretty quiet until the open of the next Daily bar, but it is BTC the coin that does what noone expects.
Comment: Daily Chart Update
For me todays a game changer for BTC
There are different ways of looking at Charts and doing TA, there is the theory (My mentor was senior educator for a leading TECH analysis organisation in the world) and the practical. For those throwing charts around with abandon, and with little experience or knowledge of actually trading there is normally the text book approach, and disclaimers saying not to act on there ideas.
For those of us who make our living from trading and who have done for several years there are no such disclaimers, and often some small differences even among ourselves that experience brings. There is however respect, those of us that do this for profit can pick each other from miles despite the differences in analysis.
I am happy to let a trend line be broken on occasions and not move it. Especially when the top of a retracing bar would have been a test as in the top chart above, and the break recent. Others will move the trendline and use the new high straight away. This is a text book and correct approach, and cant be criticized.
I have put both lines on today's chart as they are important, mine has a daily close above the line and a test of 10776 following (the 4 Hour Hesitation below suggests i am not the only one using this approach).Line A
The more conservative has the close of yesterdays D bar below, and only breaking now (Line B)It will need a close above to be confirmed. I share all this with you to help with clarity and to educate. That is what this Daily analysis is for.
More importantly for me yesterdays bar gives us a bar ( 2 before) with two bars above it on both sides(Its marked on the chart) Creating a cycle LOW. Its our first new LOW since the BIG sell off and gives us our first HIGHER LOW since then. We can now put a new Trend line through it and as long as we stay above the line we are to some degree BULLISH. I have colored it RED for you and its a KEY line on my chart.
For me i have a break of a resistance Trend line and a new Low formed and i am BULLISH BTC. I can be until my trendlines are broken, a close below a key resistance line returning me to Neutral, and a close below the support one would move me BEARISH.
This chart is a lot simpler for me today, now we have the LOW and a base.
Th e Higher low gives our chart a base to build up from. I am expecting to see the level at 10776, blown over and a test of recent highs 11788 very soon, and a break above the key 12000 level may come earlier than i have previously expected. In honesty now we have a base, the recent high of 19891 is now back in mid term play. For me i can be Bullish in the big Picture an look towards these targets as long as we stay above the new Support trendline.
Still for today i would like to see a close above the Resistance Trend line B, its on a few charts and needs to be respected.
In summary, i am cautiously optimistic and looking towards a nice run up in BTC
Comment: Wow, could this be any better for the BULLS???
What a text book couple of days for BTC on the daily chart. C? I will mainly talk about my Trendline (Black line) , but have left the other on the chart (Pink line) as its clearly in play to some degree as well.

So yesterday was a pullback day, How is that good for the bulls you may ask? Well for two reasons, with our new low having formed we have stayed above our support trendline (BULLISH) and having broken our trendline we have come back and not only tested it but closed on it yesterday, and today not only are we building away, but we pulled back a little so we could bounce of it exactly today. The market has Advanced through this line, next day pulled back and closed on, and next day Advanced in the original direction based off it. Its technically perfect ABC pattern and in very strong bullish sign.
I wont give entries and trades in details in my analysis section but, this is tradeable anytime from the bounce with a stop below the broken line. Its more conservative to wait until the high of yesterday is broken and trade it up to around 11800.
So in summary for me to become BEARISH we would need to drop below the Red support trendline. I am Bullish for now, and looking for a break of the top of yesterdays bar up to resistance around 11800.
I am sorry for the later analysis today. I should be back on time again tomorrow so others can copy my analysis more easily. The best of luck to you all and may the trading gods smile on all who deserve it with profits.
Comment: CRucial time for BTC in my opinion, we are currently breaking the high of yesterdays bar, (putting us in our trade, please see our trade post for real details.) All the Bullish TA in the world wont see us through here, if we keep getting Bullish set ups and dont get through the market will lose patience and teh BEARS will come back.
WE are above my channel and the other Channel and the most recent high, now we need to push on and close up here on the next 4 H and daily charts. If we do that the BTC BULL game will quickly become the most popular game in town again.
Comment: So close and yet so far, We are Nearly there on BTC

WE have so much of what we want with yesterdays BULLISH bar taking out the previous resistance trendlines and previous days high of 11065, by touching 11095. It all looked Golden before it pulled back and closed lower, on the higher of the two resistance Trendlines (The Pink Line).
We are already back up above the trendlines, but we still lack that VITAL close as a final confirmation. AS the old saying goes you can look as good as you like but its the finish that counts, and the close below makes the bar a little disappointing.
The new bar is already above the trendlines and making a run at yesterdays highs. A close above on a 4H chart would be a reasonable confirmation of Break out long for me. I will still be happier when i get a Daily Close up here.
In Summary i am still looking for a final Confirmation BULLISH and would like a 4H bar closing above 11180 for that. From here i expect a test of 11800 and then 12,000. We should bounce and consolidate around this level. A confirmed break of 12000 and i think we are back at the races LONG>
I will only become BEARISH if my red support trendline is broken and closed below.
Comment: Still waiting for BTC to break this level. Its a fair battle here between buys and sellers and if we don't get through today i will expect a pullback so we can create some momentum and have a run at the level again.
So many opinions (Guesses) on BTC that its creating a bit of hesitation while the negs say we are going to 1000. While anything is possible, i cant find a credible technical case for it. Price is KING and recently Price Action has been Bullish, and we have clear areas to change that opinion if we need to.
I will stay in the Bullish camp, and i can tell you after 15 years, i'm not a dreamer, or a followers of popular opinions. My charts are just giving me a reasonably clear message and as long as they do i will back it.
I will update again when the Daily bar closes
Comment: BTC still toying with us, but we have one KEY Bullish sign.

I can nearly post yesterdays update with a couple of number changes,
WE have so much of what we want with yesterdays BULLISH bar bouncing off the previous resistance trendlines, and taking out our recent days highs before testing our resistance at 11174.
It all looked Golden before it pulled back and closed below the resistance level. But CRUCIALLY its the FIRST DAILY Close above all the resistance trendlines, and is a VERY BULLISH sign.
It has already burst through above our resistance at 11174, and a 4 H close above this level should be enough to convince the market to test the highs of the last leg up at 11788.

In Summary i am still looking for a final Confirmation BULLISH and would like a 4H bar closing above 11180 for that. From here i expect a test of 11800 and then 12,000. We should bounce and consolidate around this level. A confirmed break of 12000 and i think we are back at the races LONG, with previous highs in the mid term picture.
I will only become BEARISH if my red support trendline is broken and closed below.
I will update if anything important happens
Comment:
Comment: Once again we nail the analysis on BTC.
Nice Bullish move to confirm our analysis. We have broken 11174, and accelerated up to a close above, and then consolidation before we have started to push up again. It looks really good at the moment for a further push up.
Comment: Again BTC behaves like we are writing its script, it gets a bit more complex for me here.

Technically things look very BULLISH here. We have broken our levels and extended towards our next targets (Those in our posted Break out trade have banked Target 1 and 2). The obvious path is to go up and test previous highs around 11783.
While i suspect we will get there i think before we do we may have a pullback and retest of a level probably 11174.
If you look at the chart you can see 2 of the last 3, and 3 of the last 6 days have been extended buying bars and as such a pullback becomes increasingly likely. You factor that with a weekend break of the level and a possibility of week day BEARS wanting to come in and sell at these levels, and a 4 H chart that's just starting to look a but toppy.
I'm told if i don't talk about pullbacks and Higher lows more people will follow me. I am not here to win a popularity contest i'm here to help people who really want to make money how to understand and profit from these markets. Pullbacks are a really healthy part to a BULL market, they give those that missed out the chance to join and those that are in the chance to add to there positions. Understanding whats a pullback, and whats a reversal is a very important part of trading profitably.
I have moved my Arrows from my last ABC up the chart to show this journey.
Hopefully we go the direct route. But the higher lows are important, the better base we have when we take on the previous high, the more likely we are to see it off pretty easily.
There is plenty of money still to be made on BTC.
Its great when you like our posts but followers allow us to reach more people
Comment: Like a Crystal Ball, If you want to know whats happening with BTC FOLLOW ME

I will post the 4H chart so you can see the exact pullback we predicted and the following rally to the long side. I guess you can either follow me, or wait until this is copied by the rest.

Having pulled back to support and broken long again, BTC is once again pulling back on the 4 Hour chart. Its back to recent highs and i expect the buyers to come back and push it up again.

I am BULLISH above the 20EMA, Neutral if a bar closes between that and the support trendline, and Bearish if a Bar closes below the Support trendline.

My expectation is a quiet push up to around 11750, i am aware Monday AM US could provide a bit of a bump in either direction and will keep an eye on the chart during this time.
Comment:
Comment: We have posted a new daily Update
EDUCATION
Key Moments for BTC, The Daily Update on BTC you can rely on.

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THANK YOU, so as we see it closed bellow the trendlinesupport so it's bearish?
Reply
Great TA. I see that these days the market has a very technical state. A lot of bot seems to me. I see that the price has moved by testing supports and resistances in EMA 50-100-200 in time frames of 15-30-60. Hard for inexperienced like me. Your posts are very useful. I am waiting for a price correction to take a position towards 12k or more. Any suggestions? Thanks for sharing.
Reply
@gusccbb, Hey Gus, I think its likely to be experienced traders as apposed to Bots dictating the market. It will be a surprise for a few posting here when the big boys with the big money turn up and start and use better TA.Here is something to read https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-look-like-a-dummy-dump-these-invalid-chart-patterns-2016-06-09
Reply
gusccbb DollarsAndSense
@DollarsAndSenses, Tks D&S. I am on the sidelines and today it seemed a difficult day to define a position. I'm bullish in BTC and I'm looking for a good entry point. I think that the weekend with less volume that correction should be given. What do you think?
Reply
fr44b0 DollarsAndSense
Reply
@fr44b0, yeah?
Reply
Thanks for the update D&S!
+1 Reply
@greyhill, Hey, Your more than welcome. Thanks for following us. It been a good week, with some great trades and some good lessons learnt. Hopefully next week we can share a bumper week with you guys.
+2 Reply
greyhill DollarsAndSense
@DollarsAndSenses, Learning is the key regardless of btc movements. We'll have fun on next week.
Reply
Hello, what a moment! It is probable a previous recoil according to Fib to take the impulse towards the 12K.
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