BTC relief bounce

BTC is preparing for a retest of the 50k resistance.
BTC is starting to look slightly bullish short term, with the daily, 12h stoch rsi oversold.
However, the 4h haven't touched the oversold area yet, and the hourly is failing to give a strong reversal sign. The price is slowly painting an hourly descending wedge with the MA of the BB acting as a resistance. In my opinion, BTC will touch 44400 before pushing to 49500.
When this resistance is approached, it will be interesting how BTC will react. I believe BTC will reject the resistance at 50k to break the main diagonal support trendline, retest the breakout, and fall to the 40500 levels. Also, if you notice, the chart is almost painting a 4h death cross, the first one after the may crash (similar characteristics, both MA turning bearish).
Also, we can appreciate that the fair mean price for BTC is 42800 according to the VWAP, which act like a mean and support. Also, the weekly Stoch RSI has just painted a bearish cross in the overbought area, so we can expect some downside price action will follow for the next few weeks. Unless BTC breaks and holds above the 50500 level, I remain short term bearish as no extreme bullish signs have unfolded yet.
This is all going according to previously stated strategies where I was expecting a correction to these levels.
September historically has always been one of the worst months for BTC price action, with November and December being the best.
Also, Do not forget that institutions want to accumulate cheap BTC, not overprice BTC.