After months BTC has finally broken the wedge with impulse to the upside.
And with hindsight it did go fairly deep oversold on the daily RSI - down to 20 so a bounce was on the cards. Very hard to call with stocks falling below 200DMA and big FANG names FB (Meta) and NFLX having enormous bearish slumps - all potentially signalling a bear market.
But back to crypto and this seems to be a reoccurring theme that BTC follows stock indexes for a while until it breaks out and does its own thing - and this appears to be that change right here. That said if/when the real smashdown comes for indexes - BTC will imo 100% be a part of it, but yet these things seem to be timed to perfection, probably because the game is rigged and indexes will most likely allow BTC the time to do its thing and have a proper bounce.
Notice the highlighted area on the chart. We saw quite a few junctures like this where price popped out of the wedge and looked like it may find support only to slump back into the wedge and crash further, but on this occasion it did find support and found an impulsive escape upward.
I've also included the Wookalich Ratio indicator that is a great tool in so many ways specifically for BTC. It is a variant of Woo's NVT. Well the ratio line has crossed over the signal line and for the first time there is some distance between them. This is a clear indication of a trend change.
So I'm longing ADA and maybe one or 2 other oversold alts for this bounce.
My throw at the dartboard is that BTC will hit the 0.618 retracement. I have a theory (not a written theory 😄) that every bear market will print at least one 0.618 - 0.75 bounce. Essentially it is an automatic rally to 1/phi + some fakeout overshoot that can carry from 0.618 - 0.75 however it cannot drift passed this area or it will no longer be phi related but it must exist somewhere within the crash structure. And so after such a long downtrend it would seem a good time for that bounce to happen and that will be a primary B wave if it does.
So 0.618 - 0.75 is 52 - 57K. It may have a weak bounce to 0.5 more typical in FX but my guess is as I said. And worth noting it did bounce to 0.75 in LPSY in May. Go check for yourself if you are so inclined to do things.
I've kept those SOW resistances from the long domed 2021 top but as price drifts I think they will at last become less significant, but worth checking from time to time.
Also worth noting that my snookerer fib circles did capture the reversal perfectly. Press play on previous charts if you like and see that I didn't move anything. I wouldn't be surprised if the uptrend tops at the next ring. I may even use it as a signal to exit.
But dont forget my 20K call from March has not changed at all. It will get there in the end (I think).
Not advice.
And with hindsight it did go fairly deep oversold on the daily RSI - down to 20 so a bounce was on the cards. Very hard to call with stocks falling below 200DMA and big FANG names FB (Meta) and NFLX having enormous bearish slumps - all potentially signalling a bear market.
But back to crypto and this seems to be a reoccurring theme that BTC follows stock indexes for a while until it breaks out and does its own thing - and this appears to be that change right here. That said if/when the real smashdown comes for indexes - BTC will imo 100% be a part of it, but yet these things seem to be timed to perfection, probably because the game is rigged and indexes will most likely allow BTC the time to do its thing and have a proper bounce.
Notice the highlighted area on the chart. We saw quite a few junctures like this where price popped out of the wedge and looked like it may find support only to slump back into the wedge and crash further, but on this occasion it did find support and found an impulsive escape upward.
I've also included the Wookalich Ratio indicator that is a great tool in so many ways specifically for BTC. It is a variant of Woo's NVT. Well the ratio line has crossed over the signal line and for the first time there is some distance between them. This is a clear indication of a trend change.
So I'm longing ADA and maybe one or 2 other oversold alts for this bounce.
My throw at the dartboard is that BTC will hit the 0.618 retracement. I have a theory (not a written theory 😄) that every bear market will print at least one 0.618 - 0.75 bounce. Essentially it is an automatic rally to 1/phi + some fakeout overshoot that can carry from 0.618 - 0.75 however it cannot drift passed this area or it will no longer be phi related but it must exist somewhere within the crash structure. And so after such a long downtrend it would seem a good time for that bounce to happen and that will be a primary B wave if it does.
So 0.618 - 0.75 is 52 - 57K. It may have a weak bounce to 0.5 more typical in FX but my guess is as I said. And worth noting it did bounce to 0.75 in LPSY in May. Go check for yourself if you are so inclined to do things.
I've kept those SOW resistances from the long domed 2021 top but as price drifts I think they will at last become less significant, but worth checking from time to time.
Also worth noting that my snookerer fib circles did capture the reversal perfectly. Press play on previous charts if you like and see that I didn't move anything. I wouldn't be surprised if the uptrend tops at the next ring. I may even use it as a signal to exit.
But dont forget my 20K call from March has not changed at all. It will get there in the end (I think).
Not advice.
Comment:
Price may find support on SOWs or the fakeout low also - we will see...
Comment:
It gets kinda boring on my BTC threads these days I'll be honest. Its a shame trolls are so all or nothing. I guess you're all pretty hungover realising you were all like well behaved lap dogs listening to Plan B talk breeze helping their utube channels grow with your unquestioning attendance 😄.Can I get an onchain update perhaps or let me know some of your spoon fed TP's?? - thanks guys.
Comment:
If you think about it its times like these that the real deal hodlers would be chest thumping. I havent met any of them on TV as yet, there are only chest thumpers at the tops and interestingly they all claim to have bought the lows in 2013 or whatever. And if this is a significant bounce here - I mean who knows it is BTC then when it tops out inevitably chest thumpers will be back to claim the lows as their own. But right now there's not a peep.
Comment:
But the question is - will they come back to my threads again. I'm a bit like a wild bird enthusiast with home made bird nests wondering if my wild hodlers return 🤔.
Comment:
Anyhow shenanigans aside BTC is moving up and looks like 52-57K is on the cards and from there we'll see.
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Priority trades, round the clock updates and a 1 hour technical video per week 😼.
Get the "heads up" at critical moments - don't lose your shirt.
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