BTC going to the moooooon?

Hold on just a minute here.
BTC is just making a bounce, the Mid-term analysis is still down as the SAR printed on the weekly time-frame, you can check out that post in my previous charting.
So what's going on with BTC? Lets break it down, hope you can keep up.

10 SMA - Orange line
21 EMA - Yellow line
20 SMA - Red line or bollinger band medium line

• 
  We closed and opened above the 3-day, 21 EMA (yellow line,) on the right-side chart. This usually indicates buying pressure is back into the market and you'll want to see it retest the 10 SMA (orange line,) which sits around
  10.5k - 10.7k.
  
  This resistance has some nice confluence on the daily as well, which the 21-EMA (yellow line) and 20-SMA (red line) on the left side chart on the daily comes in around 10.4k - 10.7k.
  

Lower time-frames wants some upside, but the weekly is showing bear momentum is still here and have not changed. If you look at the left side of the chart, you can see the Bollinger Band I have turned on. From July 15th and July 21st, all price action did was retest that medium line (red line) on the Bollinger Band before sending price right back down. The Bollinger Band is expanding to the down side (the circle I drew,) not to the upside. Meaning, if BTC cannot close/open a candle above the 21-EMA (yellow line) daily, lower prices will be implied as price would want to revisit the bottom of the lower bands.

When do I switch to more upside into the upper 11k's?
Here's the key, if BTC can close and open a candle above the 21-EMA daily (yellow line,) I will enter a long with a stop-loss right below it. Closing and opening a candle above the 21-EMA (yellow line) daily suggest that buying pressure is back into the market and the next likely target is in the upper 12k to retest the top of the Bollinger Bands.

What's the best choice of action?
You do nothing. Allow price action to reveal what it wants to do, if we close/open a candle above the daily 21-EMA, open a long position for more upside. If we open/close a candle below the daily 21-EMA after retesting it, open a short as this is a sign of rejection.

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