I was going to hold off posting this until the current daily close as it could invalidate my entire road map for now, I'm already short how ever was looking to cover my position today with the intentions of seeing a buy back on the daily close.
If this current Daily candle closes well below the current short term range support I'm expecting more downside much earlier than I would like.
How ever if we do have a recovery here and we start to move higher again with market structure I'm not going to turn Bull again, I'm simply biding my time for a much better entry on the continuation of the down trend expecting some form of a broadening range over the next month, this will ultimately become a suckers rally or bull trap as the perma bulls and retail fail to see the signs that we are already in a bearish indecisive market.
Retail have a natural tendency of a bullish confirmation bias and some times fail to see the information in front of them, instead twist it or see what they want to see to confirm the narrative, much like selective hearing as a child lol
It's for this phenomena that often retail become trapped into positions that smart money can take advantage of and they simply become liquidity providers to the big players.
I am expecting another short/mid term rally towards the 46k bottom of the previous range as a bit of a complacency play which is why I refer to it as the suckers rally as the perma bulls, YouTube gurus and retail traders start yelling "told ya so 1milly bitty here we come" "should have bought the dip" etc etc
This will be a perfect time for large funds to trap the bulls into positions to fill large shorts and ride the price back down to the previous support level.
As we touch back on support I would expect a natural reaction of a dismal buy back but as we move into the anxiety phase and retail start to become weary they may actually be wrong, I wouldn't expect to see a whole heap of buying here and most likely see a bear flag form and break to the downside demolishing that support level at 32k
The key areas I'm looking at for the continuation is the large demand zone around 25k, now keep in mind the structure formed at 25k I wouldn't normally consider to be a large demand how ever the retest in Jan confirmed there was a demand at that level at the start of the year so it may still be a significant level to watch for so expecting to see a short term recovery how ever ultimately breaking down again as the bulls begin the panic and capitulation phase of a market cycle as this is where the big money takes the most advantage to fill large positions and begin the accumulation once again.
There is a key area around 22-24k where there was a hold up in the market towards the end of last year as we entered price discovery from previous ATH, the pause during that period was short lived and we never returned to that level, so we could see a square up to this level but I'm not counting on it being the reversal point more so an Area Of Interest to manage my trade accordingly at the time.
Finally we push towards a liquidity grab as 20k just seems like way to obvious of a level to aim for, there will be bottom pickers, buy the dippers, people loading up on longs are previous ATH and others front running the herd, this will become a massive liquidity pool for smart money so either we turn the market around before we get there which will simply price retail out of the market before they get a change to get in.
or
they let them get in and there stop loss orders become the liquidity pool and they do one last blip down to shake them out and take there orders off them, and thus we begun the re accumulation phase.
Anyway just my thoughts and a possible road map that I often refer to as my "play book"
These arnt so much a "prediction" or a "call" more a case of "if this happens, then im gonna do that"
Keen to hear your thoughts
If this current Daily candle closes well below the current short term range support I'm expecting more downside much earlier than I would like.
How ever if we do have a recovery here and we start to move higher again with market structure I'm not going to turn Bull again, I'm simply biding my time for a much better entry on the continuation of the down trend expecting some form of a broadening range over the next month, this will ultimately become a suckers rally or bull trap as the perma bulls and retail fail to see the signs that we are already in a bearish indecisive market.
Retail have a natural tendency of a bullish confirmation bias and some times fail to see the information in front of them, instead twist it or see what they want to see to confirm the narrative, much like selective hearing as a child lol
It's for this phenomena that often retail become trapped into positions that smart money can take advantage of and they simply become liquidity providers to the big players.
I am expecting another short/mid term rally towards the 46k bottom of the previous range as a bit of a complacency play which is why I refer to it as the suckers rally as the perma bulls, YouTube gurus and retail traders start yelling "told ya so 1milly bitty here we come" "should have bought the dip" etc etc
This will be a perfect time for large funds to trap the bulls into positions to fill large shorts and ride the price back down to the previous support level.
As we touch back on support I would expect a natural reaction of a dismal buy back but as we move into the anxiety phase and retail start to become weary they may actually be wrong, I wouldn't expect to see a whole heap of buying here and most likely see a bear flag form and break to the downside demolishing that support level at 32k
The key areas I'm looking at for the continuation is the large demand zone around 25k, now keep in mind the structure formed at 25k I wouldn't normally consider to be a large demand how ever the retest in Jan confirmed there was a demand at that level at the start of the year so it may still be a significant level to watch for so expecting to see a short term recovery how ever ultimately breaking down again as the bulls begin the panic and capitulation phase of a market cycle as this is where the big money takes the most advantage to fill large positions and begin the accumulation once again.
There is a key area around 22-24k where there was a hold up in the market towards the end of last year as we entered price discovery from previous ATH, the pause during that period was short lived and we never returned to that level, so we could see a square up to this level but I'm not counting on it being the reversal point more so an Area Of Interest to manage my trade accordingly at the time.
Finally we push towards a liquidity grab as 20k just seems like way to obvious of a level to aim for, there will be bottom pickers, buy the dippers, people loading up on longs are previous ATH and others front running the herd, this will become a massive liquidity pool for smart money so either we turn the market around before we get there which will simply price retail out of the market before they get a change to get in.
or
they let them get in and there stop loss orders become the liquidity pool and they do one last blip down to shake them out and take there orders off them, and thus we begun the re accumulation phase.
Anyway just my thoughts and a possible road map that I often refer to as my "play book"
These arnt so much a "prediction" or a "call" more a case of "if this happens, then im gonna do that"
Keen to hear your thoughts
Comment:
Bounce i feel is still not 100% confirmed, its weak at best but still holding its ground, might just need some more time to get a clear direction here, either way still not super bullish or convinced on a bottom just yet, its not very...bottomy
Comment:
Wouldn't say im entirely convinced with the bounce, seems week but we are building hh and hl on the 4hr structure so lets see what it can give out this week
Would have prefer to get a much higher entry into a much larger position but cant always get what you asked for lol