I present to you the history of bitcoin cycles, just by using 5 indicators:
1) vertical lines (purple) - marking each day of the halving
- 29 November 2012
- 9 July 2016
- 11 May 2020
2) horizontal lines (blue) - marking the top of each cycle.
3) trend based fibonacci retracement - for each cycle I used exactly the same principle. I started the indicator from the bottom of a cycle and dragged it to the first top after the halving, once we passed the previous ATH and got the first significant pullback ( avarage negative 32-45%). Just by having this information, when we drew it from the 2015 bottom to the first top after halving in 2016, this give us the precise target for the top of the cycle. So with the same amount of information now in the current price, we can already establish same targets for this current cycle. Which is approx. 193k.
*notice, everytime we had the cycle top, bitcoin entered a long bear market with bottoms exactly at the 0.618 retracements level each time. Having this information we can assume that once we hit our 193k target, then the bottom of the coming bear market might be around the 48-52k area.
4) fibbonacci circle (green) I call it the beginning of the phase 2 parabolic bull run. Once we exit and find support on the last thick 4.618 ring then we begin the massive run to the upper targets of our trend based fib retracement. For each cycle I drew the circles with the exact same principle. I start from the price closure on the halving day, to the price closure right when we cross the previous ATH, same principle give me the current target, once we break out from the thick green line then it's a confirmation for me than we are entering the phase 2 of the parabolic bullrun.
5) fibbonacci circle (black) - using 3 rings only ( 1, 1.618, 2.618 ). Each circle was created using exactly the same points as the trend based fibonacci retracement, first point at bottom of a cycle, second point goes to the first peak after passing the ATH after halving. First ring shows us roughly the moment when we pass the previous ATH and the third one shows us the target and estimated time when the peak of the cycle will happen.
*notice, once we passed the ATH after halving, we never go back to the same levels. That's why I'm confident that we will NEVER see bitcoin for 20k again. NEVER EVER.
* price in general is getting more stable over time with each cycle. The pumps from previous ATH to new ATH are getting smaller almost by half with each cycle, but the bear markets are getting less violent as well.
1) vertical lines (purple) - marking each day of the halving
- 29 November 2012
- 9 July 2016
- 11 May 2020
2) horizontal lines (blue) - marking the top of each cycle.
3) trend based fibonacci retracement - for each cycle I used exactly the same principle. I started the indicator from the bottom of a cycle and dragged it to the first top after the halving, once we passed the previous ATH and got the first significant pullback ( avarage negative 32-45%). Just by having this information, when we drew it from the 2015 bottom to the first top after halving in 2016, this give us the precise target for the top of the cycle. So with the same amount of information now in the current price, we can already establish same targets for this current cycle. Which is approx. 193k.
*notice, everytime we had the cycle top, bitcoin entered a long bear market with bottoms exactly at the 0.618 retracements level each time. Having this information we can assume that once we hit our 193k target, then the bottom of the coming bear market might be around the 48-52k area.
4) fibbonacci circle (green) I call it the beginning of the phase 2 parabolic bull run. Once we exit and find support on the last thick 4.618 ring then we begin the massive run to the upper targets of our trend based fib retracement. For each cycle I drew the circles with the exact same principle. I start from the price closure on the halving day, to the price closure right when we cross the previous ATH, same principle give me the current target, once we break out from the thick green line then it's a confirmation for me than we are entering the phase 2 of the parabolic bullrun.
5) fibbonacci circle (black) - using 3 rings only ( 1, 1.618, 2.618 ). Each circle was created using exactly the same points as the trend based fibonacci retracement, first point at bottom of a cycle, second point goes to the first peak after passing the ATH after halving. First ring shows us roughly the moment when we pass the previous ATH and the third one shows us the target and estimated time when the peak of the cycle will happen.
*notice, once we passed the ATH after halving, we never go back to the same levels. That's why I'm confident that we will NEVER see bitcoin for 20k again. NEVER EVER.
* price in general is getting more stable over time with each cycle. The pumps from previous ATH to new ATH are getting smaller almost by half with each cycle, but the bear markets are getting less violent as well.
Full without circles
tw website + /x/JvNmYDGs/
Full with circles
tw website + /x/iqC56o9y/
Genesis cycle
tw website + /x/EjwvFf1n/
2nd cycle
tw website + /x/Vq4B3hQl/
3rd cycle
tw website + /x/jHzGKoBK/
Current cycle
tw website + /x/uEPsCYCJ/
If you want to see any specific time frame or a different candle duration, please let me know here.
I appologize for the link issues!