Here is how I see the next few months playing out for BTC:
- Overall, I am bullish. We have been in this downward channel/bull-flag for a > 6 months. RSI is now oversold on the weekly chart and approaching oversold on the monthly chart. Additionally, the price remains above the 20 and 50 month MAs, which are getting quite close to each other (change to monthly timeframe and take a look at those MA's during the last cycle and this cycle). In the last bull cycle, price spiked when they came close to each other.
- In the short term, I could see one last sell off for BTC before we continue upward
- The halvening occurs in mid-May. Similar to the last halvening I expect a significant run up around March/April and then sell off as we approach the day of the first block that delivers 6 BTC
- The approx cost of mining is around 6k per BTC, and with the halvening, this could double for many miners
- After the post-halvening consolidation, any opportunity to pick up BTC below cost of mining cost will be a solid risk-reward potential (in my opinion)
- The price could spike to 10-12k and consolidate in a larger ascending triangle pattern (blue lines), which I and others have pointed out
- Overall, I am bullish. We have been in this downward channel/bull-flag for a > 6 months. RSI is now oversold on the weekly chart and approaching oversold on the monthly chart. Additionally, the price remains above the 20 and 50 month MAs, which are getting quite close to each other (change to monthly timeframe and take a look at those MA's during the last cycle and this cycle). In the last bull cycle, price spiked when they came close to each other.
- In the short term, I could see one last sell off for BTC before we continue upward
- The halvening occurs in mid-May. Similar to the last halvening I expect a significant run up around March/April and then sell off as we approach the day of the first block that delivers 6 BTC
- The approx cost of mining is around 6k per BTC, and with the halvening, this could double for many miners
- After the post-halvening consolidation, any opportunity to pick up BTC below cost of mining cost will be a solid risk-reward potential (in my opinion)
- The price could spike to 10-12k and consolidate in a larger ascending triangle pattern (blue lines), which I and others have pointed out
