DennisLeeBTC

Bitcoin doesn't want to go down! 10k next?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I think we may have underestimated the bull. On some counts people were considering this as a wave 5, but that's assuming this whole thing is a smaller degree wave. We have to remember scale when considering elliott waves . If this is part of a new impulse wave, or even part of an A wave, we have to consider the possibility that it is just a subwave of a larger degree. I would have expected a wave 5 to end with a deeper and more sudden retracement. Instead, here we are... just hanging... There is a bit of divergence between the last two subwaves on RSI but there's also significant hidden bullish divergence on the last drop .

I think it's possible we may be in a B wave of a smaller degree 1st wave of a 3rd wave in a tiny correction. Alternately we could be starting the 1st of the third. Anyway, EW sucks to try to explain verbally, so refer to the chart. If we are still correcting, I don't think we should expect to go much lower than 8450, and perhaps not even break 8700.

I don't think we broke the log trendline just to give it back to the bears. People believe this price range is a value for BTC but are waiting for a dip to buy. Therefore I expect a lot of buying pressure from below. If that's the case, and we don't retrace beyond 8450, then it seems implausible for the 2nd wave on the larger degree to be that shallow. Therefore I think it's just a subwave.

Next target should be in the 10k to 11k range with only small pullbacks on the way. This would coincide with the cup and handle target. In fact we may get there in a series of bull flags.

This seems to make sense from an Elliott wave context as according to this count wave 3 at the 1.618 extension of wave 1 would be in the 11k region. The rest of the targets are drawn using fairly conservative EW extensions. Wave 5 target at 14k is a bit extended being 100% of 1+3, but that is not unusual for bitcoin . Alternately, the standard extension would be 11-12k but for me that would mean a probable failed bull run. Failing to break that 11.8k area a third time would be horrible for market sentiment, and would probably mean either months of range bound action or a continuation of the bear market.

There is really strong support in the 8400-8450 range due to the 4hr 50MA and 55EMA as well as the log trendline and a cluster of horizontal support in the previous drop on the left side of the chart, so risk/reward favors an entry there if you are looking to add or buy on a dip. Stop losses would be just on the other side of the log trendline .
I've been in since the mid 6k range, so I'm just going to hold my positions.

Unfortunately, for dip buyers, it seems the big money and HFT bots aren't going give many safe opportunities for entry, so latecomers to this trend may get faked out a few times before a successful entry.

From the bearish perspective, we could be on the C leg of an ABC upward correction. In a more extreme scenario we could be in the A leg of a gigantic B wave up to 17k . Sadly there's no way to confirm this until we break 17k and make a new ATH . I'm not waiting until then to go long. I much prefer the risk/reward of buying near a possible bottom rather than watching profits run away from me until we correct.

I'll be taking it one wave at a time until then. However judging from the wave counts and behavior of alts lately, I'd say market sentiment in the mid-term has turned around. Regulation talks over the summer and EW projections suggest we may have a correction sometime mid-summer. I'll continue to monitor things until that point, but for now things look pretty bullish .
Comment: Alternate "Under the Cloud" scenario, since I am seeing this type of pattern on many alts developing.

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