Is the bottom in yet? Maybe. Maybe not.
Bitcoin is at a critical point, facing big resistances around $9000 and shyly looking up to the major downtrend trend line that started from the top of $20k and that goes through the lower high at $14k. It could be that it's just about to print another lower high at $9k, where it's currently sitting at.
There are some things that I spotted and that I am showing in this chart.
First of all, fractals. Big fractals!
Zooming out on the weekly chart, it seems to me that the situations in the circles of the same colors look very similar, although massively longer in the timeframe in the second occurrences.
Orange circles: big rally.
Purple circles: bounce back.
Azure circles: shy retest of downtrend trendline.
If the fractals tell a true story, the price zone around $9000-9300 should be watched closely. If price breaks above the downtrend trendline with solid good volume, then the downtrend might be over.
Otherwise I assume it's still valid for at least the next 6 months, and that Bitcoin has first to touch the bottom trendline in black before resuming an uptrend. We can see that the last uptrend started when the upper trendline was broken. First it would have to retest MA 200, which was touched at the last bottom. It it would break, price would drop significantly.
Then, we have MACD which on monthly chart has just crossed, signaling a downtrend (the 3 vertical red lines). The other two times that it happened the same things in Bitcoin history, it led to a long downwards path.
Also weekly MACD shows that we are in a downtrend, currently about to be retested.
Finally, there is that major badass red trendline, that starts from all the way back from 2012. When it was broken on November '18, price crashed brutally to $3000. It then proved to be a resistance when Bitcoin touched it with the high of $14k. It's another important indicator of a long term downtrend that seems far from over.
Bitcoin is at a critical point, facing big resistances around $9000 and shyly looking up to the major downtrend trend line that started from the top of $20k and that goes through the lower high at $14k. It could be that it's just about to print another lower high at $9k, where it's currently sitting at.
There are some things that I spotted and that I am showing in this chart.
First of all, fractals. Big fractals!
Zooming out on the weekly chart, it seems to me that the situations in the circles of the same colors look very similar, although massively longer in the timeframe in the second occurrences.
Orange circles: big rally.
Purple circles: bounce back.
Azure circles: shy retest of downtrend trendline.
If the fractals tell a true story, the price zone around $9000-9300 should be watched closely. If price breaks above the downtrend trendline with solid good volume, then the downtrend might be over.
Otherwise I assume it's still valid for at least the next 6 months, and that Bitcoin has first to touch the bottom trendline in black before resuming an uptrend. We can see that the last uptrend started when the upper trendline was broken. First it would have to retest MA 200, which was touched at the last bottom. It it would break, price would drop significantly.
Then, we have MACD which on monthly chart has just crossed, signaling a downtrend (the 3 vertical red lines). The other two times that it happened the same things in Bitcoin history, it led to a long downwards path.
Also weekly MACD shows that we are in a downtrend, currently about to be retested.
Finally, there is that major badass red trendline, that starts from all the way back from 2012. When it was broken on November '18, price crashed brutally to $3000. It then proved to be a resistance when Bitcoin touched it with the high of $14k. It's another important indicator of a long term downtrend that seems far from over.
