Bitcoin BTCUSD
Apologies for leaving Bitcoin unattended yesterday, busy with other business. It was left 'positive whilst above 15485'.
Well that didn't last long. This level was lost to bears early in
London yesterday and the subsequent rally took BTC all the way back to up to the 15485 blue line precisely - before
falling away again by 1800 points. It was strong above this line and weak below it...but why so weak? Readers will know that
usually not much heed is paid to Fibonacci levels - they tend to work sometimes in FX markets - and for every .618 that can
be produced, there are 12 more that can't - so they do occur, but as a trading tool they are not much use to us, about 90%
of the time. But for once it just could be that Fibonacci has revealed a bigger, more frightening pattern hiding in the
noise...Bitcoin is a currency after all. If you were looking for one last 'hurrah', one last 'suckers' rally' it would to sell the
.618 retracement of the entire decline from the high just under 20,000 to the low just above 11,000 (on Bitstamp feed).
And guess where that .618 would take Bitcoin up to before the real real decline then sets in ? That would be 16394 for
the next rally high...followed by the REAL decline and fall.
Bitcoin in fact made a high in China the night before last at 16476, just 29 points above the blue line and next upside
target at 16447 - it fell 2000 points over the next 11 hours before rallying 1000 (exactly 50% of the previous decline) to
15485 key level for the day and reached at midnight GMT (10 hours ago now) before falling away again by another 1800
points. So Bitcoin continues to behave technically by the book. But this is bad side of Bitcoin we're seeing now, not the
good. And that big Fibo says it's not over yet. We are not looking to buy again yet until the dust settles, and that won't
be soon by look of chart at moment.
This little rally from usual 5-6am GMT lows is not to be trusted. We look to short it from higher up...(or keep all
powder dry until we see a proper bottom defined further out in time, which we will try to get close to when it comes).
It can rally to 14539 and perhaps push into the next line of resistance above here, at 14648-14700 but not much higher
(for sure 15485, which was support yesterday, is now resistance and is unlikely to be breached until the downside
has been tested first now. Can also sling a support line under the lows of the day so far to give a short signal - look to short
once broken..should test the underside of this trend line once broken lower and recoil down again...can short then with
stops above the line by at least 50 points . Otherwise we stay on the sidelines.. This is no place for brave buys. We wait.
Bitcoin is getting interesting, buyt for all the wrong reasons now. But soon this will present an opportunity. For most then,
powder dry. We wait. Like ravens have to wait for the wolf to finish his dinner, so must we.
Apologies for leaving Bitcoin unattended yesterday, busy with other business. It was left 'positive whilst above 15485'.
Well that didn't last long. This level was lost to bears early in
London yesterday and the subsequent rally took BTC all the way back to up to the 15485 blue line precisely - before
falling away again by 1800 points. It was strong above this line and weak below it...but why so weak? Readers will know that
usually not much heed is paid to Fibonacci levels - they tend to work sometimes in FX markets - and for every .618 that can
be produced, there are 12 more that can't - so they do occur, but as a trading tool they are not much use to us, about 90%
of the time. But for once it just could be that Fibonacci has revealed a bigger, more frightening pattern hiding in the
noise...Bitcoin is a currency after all. If you were looking for one last 'hurrah', one last 'suckers' rally' it would to sell the
.618 retracement of the entire decline from the high just under 20,000 to the low just above 11,000 (on Bitstamp feed).
And guess where that .618 would take Bitcoin up to before the real real decline then sets in ? That would be 16394 for
the next rally high...followed by the REAL decline and fall.
Bitcoin in fact made a high in China the night before last at 16476, just 29 points above the blue line and next upside
target at 16447 - it fell 2000 points over the next 11 hours before rallying 1000 (exactly 50% of the previous decline) to
15485 key level for the day and reached at midnight GMT (10 hours ago now) before falling away again by another 1800
points. So Bitcoin continues to behave technically by the book. But this is bad side of Bitcoin we're seeing now, not the
good. And that big Fibo says it's not over yet. We are not looking to buy again yet until the dust settles, and that won't
be soon by look of chart at moment.
This little rally from usual 5-6am GMT lows is not to be trusted. We look to short it from higher up...(or keep all
powder dry until we see a proper bottom defined further out in time, which we will try to get close to when it comes).
It can rally to 14539 and perhaps push into the next line of resistance above here, at 14648-14700 but not much higher
(for sure 15485, which was support yesterday, is now resistance and is unlikely to be breached until the downside
has been tested first now. Can also sling a support line under the lows of the day so far to give a short signal - look to short
once broken..should test the underside of this trend line once broken lower and recoil down again...can short then with
stops above the line by at least 50 points . Otherwise we stay on the sidelines.. This is no place for brave buys. We wait.
Bitcoin is getting interesting, buyt for all the wrong reasons now. But soon this will present an opportunity. For most then,
powder dry. We wait. Like ravens have to wait for the wolf to finish his dinner, so must we.
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Chart showing Fibonacci retracement of entire decline from sub 20 high to 11 low
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Bitcoin: Continuation patterns to study and commit to memory banks
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Bitcoin UPdate
Good counter-rally from just above the next blue line of support. Now Bitcoin is about to top out again before falling a way again...can flip around round at the highs for a while but is close to top...then when the dynamic underpinning the rally today goives way it will start to fall away faster but can still come back to retest the support line from underside first before failure...you know all this already...good breaks, messy breaks and failed breaks. If you just know and recognise these you are 90% there. You know how to short this...(check the continuation patterns above. Best homework any newbie coulld have right now.)
Otherwise we wait to pick this up from lower down - took too long to write...coming off
Good counter-rally from just above the next blue line of support. Now Bitcoin is about to top out again before falling a way again...can flip around round at the highs for a while but is close to top...then when the dynamic underpinning the rally today goives way it will start to fall away faster but can still come back to retest the support line from underside first before failure...you know all this already...good breaks, messy breaks and failed breaks. If you just know and recognise these you are 90% there. You know how to short this...(check the continuation patterns above. Best homework any newbie coulld have right now.)
Otherwise we wait to pick this up from lower down - took too long to write...coming off
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Bitcoin
Having broken lower Bitcoin is retesting the support line from underneath and having problems again...want to see this fall back to 13487-13456 and see how it behaves there ...shorts on high alert here...if it slices down lower and has big reds showing then stay short. But if it holds there and strts to flip up and down and hold the low for 5 minutes or so look to close out and reverse long with stops under the low.
Having broken lower Bitcoin is retesting the support line from underneath and having problems again...want to see this fall back to 13487-13456 and see how it behaves there ...shorts on high alert here...if it slices down lower and has big reds showing then stay short. But if it holds there and strts to flip up and down and hold the low for 5 minutes or so look to close out and reverse long with stops under the low.
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Woah. Writing on Ripple and take your eye away and it's changed here for the better, for sure. Fantastic turnaround, whipping shorts out (stops should have been above the little dynamic that was holdingback the rallies, on chart above and below). That was bad enough, but what was really stupid (sorry) was not putting down the flip of the call if wrong...and am left hoping you already know the anwer anyway: any break above the dynamic flips Bitcoin once more from short term negative whilst under the dynamic to positive above it - on a dime. Again. And yet again what takes days or weeks or months to develop in a major stock, takes just 30 minutes with Bitcoin. But still cannot trust this yet - can still fall away hard from here - and will do when the lower parallel gives way again...we wait, as above, for lower levels - and can only really change that view if 14700 is taken back by the bulls and held in the interim. Should come back to test dynamic from above...see how it reacts...can it hold there ....for now it's a watch...too twitchy and full of whipsaw.
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Once again very busy setting up other ways to get this stuff out, so over the holiday period it will not be as frequent as it really needs to be if trading this really seriously. Normal service will be resumed soon.
This double low now for example...So we wanted a loss of downside momentum/double bottom to show it's trying to hold up and we got one. Since then it's ralied well, making repeated attempts to break the lower dynamic resistance and finally busting through on 6 th attempt...and surging striaght to the bigger parallel above it - there's a zone of uncertainty between the two upper parallels (for want of a better phrase) where it can flip between and move lower towards the lower parallel - but when we see that uppermost parallel broken look to follow to 14539 and 14668-14700 at best. Then once 14700 is broken later (maybe) can get long for 15485, or from lower down ...
It has to break that upper parallel though first and then survive the retest ...choice as usual whether to follow immmediately or wait for retest...which depends on price action at that moment and risk profile.
This double low now for example...So we wanted a loss of downside momentum/double bottom to show it's trying to hold up and we got one. Since then it's ralied well, making repeated attempts to break the lower dynamic resistance and finally busting through on 6 th attempt...and surging striaght to the bigger parallel above it - there's a zone of uncertainty between the two upper parallels (for want of a better phrase) where it can flip between and move lower towards the lower parallel - but when we see that uppermost parallel broken look to follow to 14539 and 14668-14700 at best. Then once 14700 is broken later (maybe) can get long for 15485, or from lower down ...
It has to break that upper parallel though first and then survive the retest ...choice as usual whether to follow immmediately or wait for retest...which depends on price action at that moment and risk profile.
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Yes, uncertainty...will flip between them...and if we see keep finding support off the lower of the two highest parallels you know the message it's giving...underlying strength ahead more and more likely...and then as above.
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stick a stop on longs at 14250
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Speccy buy at 14140 with stop 50 below.
This make take a couple of attempts to get long from here
This make take a couple of attempts to get long from here
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