crypt0whale

Possible Bearish BTC scenario post November 2017 fork

Short
crypt0whale Updated   
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
1. BTCUSD latest impulsive move up is not sustainable and I am expecting a healthy retracement to the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level.

2. Side note - I believe a lot of market cap will flow into alts the moment Bitcoin cools off. Those of you HODLing alts through these recent weeks be ready to readjust your portfolio and get a sign of life. It's clear that we should be holding a larger portion of solely Bitcoin for the foreseeable future and perhaps less small cap alts. I believe ETHUSD will go berserk in 2018. Most ICOs raise funds with ETH and this alone will create a huge demand... Month after month there are more ICO TGEs...

3. I don't see us running straight up to $10,000 / Bitcoin without a pullback. This is very unlikely, unless of course a bunch of FOMO investors/traders ramp the price up to those levels. The aftermath will be brutal and the panic selling post rally will be a great opportunity for the wise traders/investors to BTFD (Buy The F**king Dip). Follow the orange line drawn on my chart to reference what I am talking about.

4. Green boxes represent history repeating itself in terms of impulsive moves up and ideal areas to buy dips. If this trend continues we can expect to look for an entry back into Bitcoin at ~$4500-$5000. There could be a flash crash (wick) that goes down as low as $4200-$4300.

5. A lot of things need to be factored into why the Bitcoin price has gone berserk. First off, there's a fork coming. Therefore, people want a free copy of Bitcoin. Secondly, Bitcoin futures market was announced by CME before Q4 2017 ends. Third, there is a bunch of institutional money on the sidelines and prominent names in the space now finally considering involving themselves with Bitcoin.

I believe because everyone's sentiment is so bullish on Bitcoin that the market will play the exact opposite. The last time there was a fork everyone thought Bitcoin was going to go down and it did the opposite. The majority sentiment now is that Bitcoin will go up post fork, so I am expecting the opposite to happen. 9 times out of 10 the market will play against us. This is just an opinion and idea I wanted to share with you all. Whether or not it unfolds this way won't matter for the bigger picture of Bitcoin. Ultimately, I think Bitcoin will be the greatest investment of our lifetime in the 21st century.


Comment:
Fork was called off. This will be interesting. BTC market will be a battle between traders and investors. Ultimately, I think a lot of new money will be REKT regardless when people push the price down which will create lots of fear/panic selling.
Order cancelled:
This was my analysis and opinion assuming the fork would go through. Since it's called off I am not confident this analysis stands a chance at playing out. 5500 levels is what I think we may dip to soon.
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