Sherem

Am I an Oracle? Legend? Or just a trader trying to profit? BTC

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I appreciate the kind comments from everyone such as:
"cristinel777ro: Sherem You are pin pointing everything ...It's just unbelievable how accurate you are doing it. Keep this way and thank you for your outstanding job"
or
"theredbaronZ: I don't call you the preacher man. Preachers are selling stuff. I call you the PROPHET!"

I want to say THANK YOU, it reassures me that people are getting a lot out of what I post. I enjoy doing these posts and hope my insight helps. thank you to my followers for the support, hopefully you have all heeded my advice. If you did, you should be profitable or at least break even on the positions we took. Let's take a look at what's going on.

I am neutral on BTC right now. BTC did break the previous low and has rebounded back to this $6150 area. This move down is the technical breakout to the downside and retrace to the resistance area and traditionally will move down from this 6150 area in a continuation move to the downside. While there is a possibility to short this right now, I prefer being neutral as crypto is traditionally volatile and we had a very sharp move upwards. While I believe the market makers are pushing this up so people wake up on Monday to FOMO in so they can then push it lower. The moves get hazy as a stop loss would have to be either really tight or loose and have the possibility of greater loses with sharp upward moves.

I also recognize that there is a possibility that we could move sideways and create a mini inverse head and shoulders for a push up. What we don't know is if this could go up just enough to 6.4k to stop shorts out and then move down, or if it could possibly push up to the larger trendline at 6.6k ish? Becuase of the uncertainty behind this, I am inclined to sit on the sidelines with ladders above 5k and wait to see what happens.

It could be contested that the 4 hour MACD is crossing and the 4 hour RSI has created a divergence of such. HOWEVER, It's important to remember that on the DAILY RSI , we have been creating lower high's, which is unsettling. We have been flirting with the oversold area in RSI for a little while but there has been little rebound in price to reflect the oversold RSI or divergence. It's forming this descending triangle on the RSI to match the already larger descending triangle that is forming in the charts. This would lead me to believe a push down is only a matter of time. The question is just how does it happen? Rebound first, small, large? or none at all?

What would lead me to switch to be more bullish would be a larger inverse head and shoulders , RSI showing a different form of divergence (which we aren't getting yet) or that we start brekaing the LARGER trendlines , not just these smaller ones. It could be contested that once we break out of this wedge /channel that it would be extremely bullish . I would say it would be bullish until we hit the larger descending trendline wherever prices falls there, so maybe like 7.5ish area? But not much more than that, which is important to keep in mind

So for now, I am neutral with a ladder at 5300 and more down from there.

Happy trading,
-Sherem
Comment: For those you are not following me or considering it. Why were people saying those things in the comments? I think my calls have been pretty good:

Calling the move down from 8k

Identifying the Head and shoulders pattern where NO ONE else was:

But also identifying bottoms of when to go LONG:
Comment: As an FYI, for me to go long without it dipping, I want to see some more sideways movement like my teal arch here that would invalidate those trendlines, otherwise, I think those purple arrows could be possible scenarios.

Comment: Not to much to report right now other than it doesn't look too hot and this is why I am neutral.
Comment: I see a lot of posts that are saying BTC is going to the moon from here. But I just don't see it. Why aren't people driving the price up right now? shouldn't the 20k fomo and panic drive it up? It should be going that direction to test these trendlines and resistance points, but it isn't, we're just drifting.

You could argue that we formed a inverse head and shoulders on the 1-4 hour time frames. But it's pretty a lethargic move. Remember, we want to see something that starts invalidating the down move and not just drift, and we will look for the break not just formation for entries with the market in its current status.
Comment: Hi everyone,we are still moving extremely slow and still in BTC "drift" mode. It's unfortunate because it makes trading BTC rather boring without volatility. If we zoom in on this 4 hour chart you can see we have MACD negative and crossing down, but we have some divergence on the RSI. Daily still looks the same, down and negative. I think we will slowly drift down and it will take it's time doing so. We might pop up with these green arrows I drew, but it's been following my purple one pretty closely.

Comment: Conclusion: Still neutral. risk to reward to follow those green arrows for a $200 move up is just not there. Maybe it goes all the way up to 6300? Still not a proper risk to reward trade IMO.
Comment: Finally, some movement. We are hitting the top of the channel as i mentioned it could do above. We need this top to break for a sustained move up For me, I want to see price action do something like these blue lines before entering.

Comment: What I do not want to see it do is this:
Comment: With this last push up, we'll look to go long here soon after some consolidation or bull flag formation. You can see it's starting to form the structure I outlined with my blue arrows. For now, I have a buy just above $6,400 to try and catch a dip. SL below 6,200

Comment: and if this thing continues to form like this, gradually moving up on smaller time frames, go long if it breaks 6.7k.

Trade active: Long active, broken the trendline and bull flag is forming. It looks like we might not even form up the right shoulder completely. Target 7500 at that resistance zone and massive trendline

Comment: Be aware, we could get a pull back before moving up. But it looks good at the moment for a further move up.
Comment: We have been consolidating sideways which is a good thing IMO. It looks as though it's ratifying the larger inverse head and shoulders while also creating lower highs on smaller time frames. Once it cleanly breaks 6.7k it will fully confirm the move up.

Comment: This inverse head and shoulders pattern has more fully formed up. Trend lines still remain broken, we should get a move up soon.
Comment: Everyone knows we are long here, but updated the idea in a new chart.
All my posts are not intended as financial advice, just me sharing what i am doing with my research and positions. Don't stress, pick your points and don't use leverage.

Comments

Im looking for this one
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Looking to me like at least one more major dip, and still moving downwards for another 24-36 hours before we close this wedge
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C'mon, one more limbo dance for good measure.. cue muzyk
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I think there is a correlation between Total Coin Market Cap and Bicoin Dominance.
+1 Reply
Sherem once again THANK YOU for your amazing job.
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Thanks sherem! Still lots of $$$ to be made if this is the turn around to a bull market.
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thanks for the update! Let's see that downtrend finally broken!
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the level of certainty of your predictions is impressive
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this will be difficult to happen, my friend... that means we will get ripple and iota for only a few cents. we need a good correction to get back to $2000
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downb4up hatmaendik
@hatmaendik, I guess you mean $20000 right? Funny typo, as next targets may really be $2000 (no typo). But I guess this is so low that it would trigger lots of buy orders. So next stop $5000, then $4000-$3000 and then back upwards to new ATH
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