Good evening guys,
Beyond TA, and to just give a bit of colour, the reaction gold and markets had just after the FED Bazooka announcement were, imo, exaggerared, or better it discounted immediately the whole upside for following months in one single day. At the moment, many seems to expect that in 2 weeks everything will start immediately I expect that what we saw was not the bottom. I saw Boeing doing +30% in a single day and it is a complete nonsense, considering that its fleet is still parked in a airport. For Gold and bitcoin great times are ahead but the positive effects of FED (and European) actions on store of value will be visible in the following weeks/months.
Coming back to our beloved BTC, we are currenty at a confluences of resistances and bearish signals :
1- the upper edge of the medium term channel
2- the lower edge of the short term channel
(please note that they are both descending, meaning that the main direction is downward)
3- 6785 horizontal line that acted as support/resistance
4- we are exactly in the middle of the two retracement areas indicated with red rectangles (one for the last leg down and the other calculated from the 10.5k top)
5- Point of control is at 7125, where most of trades occurred in the last 5 months (from November to now)
6- RSI is at the highest levels from mid-February, around 55-60, so unlickely we will go higher in this not very powerful moment.
7-All 3 major MA (50, 100 and 200) are negatively sloped
8- Also a rising wedge is forming, which is a bearish sign.
9- the mid of the Bollinger Band (namely, the 20MA) is 6540, so the price is above at the time of writing this. It is a good parameter to take into account for identifying imminent direction, and usually that would be a short term bullish sign, but the price found itself above just by moving sideways as time passed by, so not a very bullish to be honest.
Taken into account all this, I can only come to the conclusion that the direction for the short term is DOWN.
It is difficult to break them, especially in a moment in which it did not show much strenght and when people need liquidity. We could be consolidating for few days/weeks, and in a normal scenario I would have opted for it, but since I expect another leg down in major traditional markets, btc should follow (beside what it does in weekends, as it is free to move)
I opened a short with leverage 3x @ 6745
SL 7205 (above Point of control and previous spikes)
T1 6140-5810 (the light blue line that acted as interest area during 2018 downturn)
T2 5100-4500 (respectively the middle of the descending channel indicate dby the dotted line and the rising long term dynamic trendline)
T3 3400 (the lower part of the channel)
This last one is really very aggressive, would be very bad for bitcoin even if would form a higher high from 2019 lows anyway. Me, personally would close 66% at TP1 and 33% at TP2.
The situation about BTC transaction mentioned in the idea linked below is still valid of course, the pattern is in formation, we are just waiting for a jump in transaction that may take weeks.
Beyond TA, and to just give a bit of colour, the reaction gold and markets had just after the FED Bazooka announcement were, imo, exaggerared, or better it discounted immediately the whole upside for following months in one single day. At the moment, many seems to expect that in 2 weeks everything will start immediately I expect that what we saw was not the bottom. I saw Boeing doing +30% in a single day and it is a complete nonsense, considering that its fleet is still parked in a airport. For Gold and bitcoin great times are ahead but the positive effects of FED (and European) actions on store of value will be visible in the following weeks/months.
Coming back to our beloved BTC, we are currenty at a confluences of resistances and bearish signals :
1- the upper edge of the medium term channel
2- the lower edge of the short term channel
(please note that they are both descending, meaning that the main direction is downward)
3- 6785 horizontal line that acted as support/resistance
4- we are exactly in the middle of the two retracement areas indicated with red rectangles (one for the last leg down and the other calculated from the 10.5k top)
5- Point of control is at 7125, where most of trades occurred in the last 5 months (from November to now)
6- RSI is at the highest levels from mid-February, around 55-60, so unlickely we will go higher in this not very powerful moment.
7-All 3 major MA (50, 100 and 200) are negatively sloped
8- Also a rising wedge is forming, which is a bearish sign.
9- the mid of the Bollinger Band (namely, the 20MA) is 6540, so the price is above at the time of writing this. It is a good parameter to take into account for identifying imminent direction, and usually that would be a short term bullish sign, but the price found itself above just by moving sideways as time passed by, so not a very bullish to be honest.
Taken into account all this, I can only come to the conclusion that the direction for the short term is DOWN.
It is difficult to break them, especially in a moment in which it did not show much strenght and when people need liquidity. We could be consolidating for few days/weeks, and in a normal scenario I would have opted for it, but since I expect another leg down in major traditional markets, btc should follow (beside what it does in weekends, as it is free to move)
I opened a short with leverage 3x @ 6745
SL 7205 (above Point of control and previous spikes)
T1 6140-5810 (the light blue line that acted as interest area during 2018 downturn)
T2 5100-4500 (respectively the middle of the descending channel indicate dby the dotted line and the rising long term dynamic trendline)
T3 3400 (the lower part of the channel)
This last one is really very aggressive, would be very bad for bitcoin even if would form a higher high from 2019 lows anyway. Me, personally would close 66% at TP1 and 33% at TP2.
The situation about BTC transaction mentioned in the idea linked below is still valid of course, the pattern is in formation, we are just waiting for a jump in transaction that may take weeks.
Trade active:
T1 reached.
Comment:
I am considering changing T2 with 5500-5100 range as they are respectively 200weeks MA and 50months MA
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Or simply you don't want to risk it?
Trade forex, oil, crypto, indices, and keep 80% of the profits you make, while losses are covered!
Check it out now → ftmo.com/en/?affiliates=2427
