By Bulgogi_Cheese_Ramyun 25 MAR 2020
BLUF: Expect Volatility as we rebound from "Black Week" and consolidate through halving and beyond
C.R.A.P. Analysis:
1) CHART: (CHANGE) The chart adds current trend lines from the recovery onward. Current trend, if unbroken, would meet or beat last year’s high before halving. (This is not the norm for halvings, though as the previous two halvings were during price lows.)
2) RELEVANT FACTORS:
a) Investor confidence. (CHANGE) BTC and cryptocurrency market in general appears to be leading the global stock and financial markets in recovery. The speed with which BTC rebounded, combined with anti-inflationary property, central banks printing money, stock markets still falling, BTC seems to be a great place to put your money. This MAY draw many new investors, especially if touted by the media. Despite the recent flash crash sending some investors and traders running for more security, BTC remains a highly volatile speculative tradeable asset with a strong following.
b) History & Cycles: (N/C) Crashes of epic proportions are usually followed by epic rebounds. We saw this recently as BTC rebounded from a low of approximately $3,800 to $7K, about 84% gain in a matter of days when the rest of the markets continue to sink.
c) Coronavirus: (CHANGE) We still have only seen the tip of the iceberg. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Coronavirus a PANDEMIC on 11 MAR 2020. Since then, globally, travel and events of mass gathering are being cancelled at rates never before seen. Supply chain shortages and CV FUD triggered a global stock sell-off and gold price volatility which are in league with bitcoin volatility. A mix of good and bad coronavirus news are filling inexperienced investors with alternating Hopium and FUD and this is translating into asset price volatility. Currently, 422,829 confirmed cases of Coronavirus, 18,907 deaths, and 109,102 recoveries. Recent good news was announced as Wuhan, China reported no new cases. Additionally, U.S. President Trump announced promising results in treating patients with existing medications. Still, over the next 2-3 weeks, I expect Covid-19 numbers to multiply many times over in the USA and globally. After sell-off, assets are being held in fiat currencies more so than other traditional safe havens such as gold and U.S. Treasuries. Whales may be preparing to transfer wealth to bitcoin, but that transfer may continue for some time, especially if bitcoin, stocks, and gold continue their decline as whales will attempt to purchase at bargain prices.
d) Media Influence: (CHANGE) As predicted, U.S. media continues focus on the Coronavirus spread, government inaction, and the global economic impact, spreading FUD amongst investors, and tanking the market yet again. As media shifts focus to recovery and adaptation, I expect fear to minimize, and most markets to rebound. It is strongly possible media will address Bitcoin’s departure from correlation with stock markets and the significant gains in BTC while gold remains mostly steady and stocks remain low. If that happens, expect a strong boom in Bitcoin.
e) Global Recession: (CHANGE) We alternated Dead Cat Bounces and more declines as we continued down the rocky slope beyond Black Monday into an official Bear Market. But it is not over. As indicators mount which are eerily reminiscent of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Bitcoin prices have declined similarly. I believe three weeks ago, stock market declines were also "tip of the iceberg" and two weeks ago, we saw part of the submerged iceberg. Last week, we saw volatility in all markets, with bitcoin leading the markets in a potential rebound. I expect Bitcoin to lead the rest of the markets out of decline.
f) Halving: (N/C) The Halving calculated for 10-12 May 2020 will reduce the available supply of new bitcoin to the market, creating scarcity and resulting in price increase. Historically the BTC price was at a relative low during halvening and the reduced supply is what drove the price of BTC upward significantly after the previous two halvings. The current socioeconomic conditions will reduce the rate at which the halving increases BTC price until those socioeconomic conditions improve.
3) ANALYSIS: (CHANGE) Bitcoin is rebounding strongly. We have likely seen bottom. Current momentum, if sustained, puts us on a trajectory to exceed last year’s high before halving.
4) PREDICTION: (CHANGE) Rapid escalation of price to the $7,800 range. Volatility and uncertainty to continue until news on coronavirus spread & impact improves or massive whale movement, whichever comes first. Current momentum, if sustained, puts us on a trajectory to exceed last year’s high before halving. Be careful of possible rejection and downturn around 7,8xx-7,9xx or 10k-10,500. After halving, we should start to see significant price increase as the available supply of new BTC declines significantly. If socioeconomic conditions maintain or improve, this is the start of a massive bull run which will continue through halving and end in a year or two from now at a new ATH. Due to the coronavirus impact, stunted economics will reduce the slope of BTC price rise until economic conditions improve.
BLUF: Expect Volatility as we rebound from "Black Week" and consolidate through halving and beyond
C.R.A.P. Analysis:
1) CHART: (CHANGE) The chart adds current trend lines from the recovery onward. Current trend, if unbroken, would meet or beat last year’s high before halving. (This is not the norm for halvings, though as the previous two halvings were during price lows.)
2) RELEVANT FACTORS:
a) Investor confidence. (CHANGE) BTC and cryptocurrency market in general appears to be leading the global stock and financial markets in recovery. The speed with which BTC rebounded, combined with anti-inflationary property, central banks printing money, stock markets still falling, BTC seems to be a great place to put your money. This MAY draw many new investors, especially if touted by the media. Despite the recent flash crash sending some investors and traders running for more security, BTC remains a highly volatile speculative tradeable asset with a strong following.
b) History & Cycles: (N/C) Crashes of epic proportions are usually followed by epic rebounds. We saw this recently as BTC rebounded from a low of approximately $3,800 to $7K, about 84% gain in a matter of days when the rest of the markets continue to sink.
c) Coronavirus: (CHANGE) We still have only seen the tip of the iceberg. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Coronavirus a PANDEMIC on 11 MAR 2020. Since then, globally, travel and events of mass gathering are being cancelled at rates never before seen. Supply chain shortages and CV FUD triggered a global stock sell-off and gold price volatility which are in league with bitcoin volatility. A mix of good and bad coronavirus news are filling inexperienced investors with alternating Hopium and FUD and this is translating into asset price volatility. Currently, 422,829 confirmed cases of Coronavirus, 18,907 deaths, and 109,102 recoveries. Recent good news was announced as Wuhan, China reported no new cases. Additionally, U.S. President Trump announced promising results in treating patients with existing medications. Still, over the next 2-3 weeks, I expect Covid-19 numbers to multiply many times over in the USA and globally. After sell-off, assets are being held in fiat currencies more so than other traditional safe havens such as gold and U.S. Treasuries. Whales may be preparing to transfer wealth to bitcoin, but that transfer may continue for some time, especially if bitcoin, stocks, and gold continue their decline as whales will attempt to purchase at bargain prices.
d) Media Influence: (CHANGE) As predicted, U.S. media continues focus on the Coronavirus spread, government inaction, and the global economic impact, spreading FUD amongst investors, and tanking the market yet again. As media shifts focus to recovery and adaptation, I expect fear to minimize, and most markets to rebound. It is strongly possible media will address Bitcoin’s departure from correlation with stock markets and the significant gains in BTC while gold remains mostly steady and stocks remain low. If that happens, expect a strong boom in Bitcoin.
e) Global Recession: (CHANGE) We alternated Dead Cat Bounces and more declines as we continued down the rocky slope beyond Black Monday into an official Bear Market. But it is not over. As indicators mount which are eerily reminiscent of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Bitcoin prices have declined similarly. I believe three weeks ago, stock market declines were also "tip of the iceberg" and two weeks ago, we saw part of the submerged iceberg. Last week, we saw volatility in all markets, with bitcoin leading the markets in a potential rebound. I expect Bitcoin to lead the rest of the markets out of decline.
f) Halving: (N/C) The Halving calculated for 10-12 May 2020 will reduce the available supply of new bitcoin to the market, creating scarcity and resulting in price increase. Historically the BTC price was at a relative low during halvening and the reduced supply is what drove the price of BTC upward significantly after the previous two halvings. The current socioeconomic conditions will reduce the rate at which the halving increases BTC price until those socioeconomic conditions improve.
3) ANALYSIS: (CHANGE) Bitcoin is rebounding strongly. We have likely seen bottom. Current momentum, if sustained, puts us on a trajectory to exceed last year’s high before halving.
4) PREDICTION: (CHANGE) Rapid escalation of price to the $7,800 range. Volatility and uncertainty to continue until news on coronavirus spread & impact improves or massive whale movement, whichever comes first. Current momentum, if sustained, puts us on a trajectory to exceed last year’s high before halving. Be careful of possible rejection and downturn around 7,8xx-7,9xx or 10k-10,500. After halving, we should start to see significant price increase as the available supply of new BTC declines significantly. If socioeconomic conditions maintain or improve, this is the start of a massive bull run which will continue through halving and end in a year or two from now at a new ATH. Due to the coronavirus impact, stunted economics will reduce the slope of BTC price rise until economic conditions improve.