I definitely don't want to rule this out.
Coming from the beginning of this rally on Jan 2nd, the impulses have gone like this:
0 = @ $6,855 on Jan 2nd starting point (the exact bottom I called on Dec 28th)
Wave 1 high = $8,461 ($1,600 surge)
Wave 2 low = $7,665 ($800 correction (exactly 50% retracement)
Wave 3 high = $9,195 (essentially another $1,600 surge (equal to wave 1))
Wave 4 low (so far) = $8,465 ($730 correction (and we have not entered into wave 1 yet, which is a possible indicator of a 1,2,3,4,5 wave surge. Support also rising (so far)).
Wave 5 high (???) = $10,065 (another $1,600 surge).
So this goes against my MOABZ chart, but also is exactly in line with my original prediction of an EW surge. Of course, it's hard to guess accurately where the impulses will rise to, but the concept/approach is the exact same. It's also good to keep an open mind and have numerous possible scenarios, as the market rarely does exactly what you think it will when you think it will. And who really knows, the low at $6,430 on 12/18/19 could have been the "0" of the EW surge....
So, where are we now?
I'm happy with my 42% gains so far this month and have now recaptured all the money I lost riding the roller-coaster down in Oct/Nov (I knew I should have exited too, just played it poorly), however I do believe another surge to $10,000 could pump some alt-coins incredibly. ETC is by far my favorite and has been since 2017, given the recent news and price-action it still has massive potential for me. If Bitcoin surges to $10,000 I could see ETC surging far past the high of $12.06 it just hit and soar to $30-$40 easily. However it did just go parabolic and one of my cardinal rules is "don't go in on the backside of a parabolic surge until at least 80% of gains have shed". The new year we saw ETC around $4.50, a pump to $12.00, which is a $7.50 surge and a 80% correction would put us at approximately ETC = $6.00. However we have seen crypto (many times) do a double-parabolic surge (look at ETC May of 2017) so I'm not ruling it out, especially since we're holding fib retracement of 50% easily and looks like momentum is building back north.
How to play this?
Well ETC has the most potential for me, so I play ETC but use BTC as the leading indicator.
Another Bitcoin surge to $10K with an ETC surge past $12 could be an easy 200%-300% play. It'd be one hell of a way to start 2020 off.
Keeping gains is the most important element IMO. So I either a) wait for confirmation with a surge past $12.00 or b) start layering in now and set stop-losses. Something like 10% at a time over the course of a week and set stop-losses around 10% (which is big, but they have to be in crypto other wise it's easy to get shaken out). 10% in today with 10% stop loss set, 10% tomorrow with 10% stop loss set, etc, etc. If the price climbs and volume increases and I'm back in profit territory I may go in heavier sooner. If not and I get stopped out I don't lose too much and know that my "MOABZ" chart is probably the likely path, with this rally being over.
Ultimately I'm long crypto. I think 2020 is going to be massive. But I want to play smart and maximize the pumps and mitigate losses. After watching some tokens lose 90%+ in 2018 I know that, unless you want to play super long and not worry about the swings, it's best to learn this game and play the pumps. Again, the most important factor to crypto pumping is Tether (USDT) injections, so I check that chart at least twice a day. USDT market cap is approx $4.6 billion, if I started seeing USDT "market cap" go to $4.7 billion... $4.8 billion etc, we'll see prices climb more and it's on! But until then it's hard to tell how much they can pump the market with the $500,000,000 injection they just did on the 6th.
This is tricky. Trade smart. No emotions. And follow Warren Buffet's golden rule... "Rule No. 1 is never lose money. Rule No. 2 is never forget Rule No. 1." (or at least keep losses as low as possible while aiming for massive gains).
Coming from the beginning of this rally on Jan 2nd, the impulses have gone like this:
0 = @ $6,855 on Jan 2nd starting point (the exact bottom I called on Dec 28th)
Wave 1 high = $8,461 ($1,600 surge)
Wave 2 low = $7,665 ($800 correction (exactly 50% retracement)
Wave 3 high = $9,195 (essentially another $1,600 surge (equal to wave 1))
Wave 4 low (so far) = $8,465 ($730 correction (and we have not entered into wave 1 yet, which is a possible indicator of a 1,2,3,4,5 wave surge. Support also rising (so far)).
Wave 5 high (???) = $10,065 (another $1,600 surge).
So this goes against my MOABZ chart, but also is exactly in line with my original prediction of an EW surge. Of course, it's hard to guess accurately where the impulses will rise to, but the concept/approach is the exact same. It's also good to keep an open mind and have numerous possible scenarios, as the market rarely does exactly what you think it will when you think it will. And who really knows, the low at $6,430 on 12/18/19 could have been the "0" of the EW surge....
So, where are we now?
I'm happy with my 42% gains so far this month and have now recaptured all the money I lost riding the roller-coaster down in Oct/Nov (I knew I should have exited too, just played it poorly), however I do believe another surge to $10,000 could pump some alt-coins incredibly. ETC is by far my favorite and has been since 2017, given the recent news and price-action it still has massive potential for me. If Bitcoin surges to $10,000 I could see ETC surging far past the high of $12.06 it just hit and soar to $30-$40 easily. However it did just go parabolic and one of my cardinal rules is "don't go in on the backside of a parabolic surge until at least 80% of gains have shed". The new year we saw ETC around $4.50, a pump to $12.00, which is a $7.50 surge and a 80% correction would put us at approximately ETC = $6.00. However we have seen crypto (many times) do a double-parabolic surge (look at ETC May of 2017) so I'm not ruling it out, especially since we're holding fib retracement of 50% easily and looks like momentum is building back north.
How to play this?
Well ETC has the most potential for me, so I play ETC but use BTC as the leading indicator.
Another Bitcoin surge to $10K with an ETC surge past $12 could be an easy 200%-300% play. It'd be one hell of a way to start 2020 off.
Keeping gains is the most important element IMO. So I either a) wait for confirmation with a surge past $12.00 or b) start layering in now and set stop-losses. Something like 10% at a time over the course of a week and set stop-losses around 10% (which is big, but they have to be in crypto other wise it's easy to get shaken out). 10% in today with 10% stop loss set, 10% tomorrow with 10% stop loss set, etc, etc. If the price climbs and volume increases and I'm back in profit territory I may go in heavier sooner. If not and I get stopped out I don't lose too much and know that my "MOABZ" chart is probably the likely path, with this rally being over.
Ultimately I'm long crypto. I think 2020 is going to be massive. But I want to play smart and maximize the pumps and mitigate losses. After watching some tokens lose 90%+ in 2018 I know that, unless you want to play super long and not worry about the swings, it's best to learn this game and play the pumps. Again, the most important factor to crypto pumping is Tether (USDT) injections, so I check that chart at least twice a day. USDT market cap is approx $4.6 billion, if I started seeing USDT "market cap" go to $4.7 billion... $4.8 billion etc, we'll see prices climb more and it's on! But until then it's hard to tell how much they can pump the market with the $500,000,000 injection they just did on the 6th.
This is tricky. Trade smart. No emotions. And follow Warren Buffet's golden rule... "Rule No. 1 is never lose money. Rule No. 2 is never forget Rule No. 1." (or at least keep losses as low as possible while aiming for massive gains).
Trade active:
Bought:
ETC @ $9.087 - stop set @ $8.45 w/limit @ $8.35 - risk 8%, weight 5%
BTC @ $8,724 - stop set @ $8,490 w limit @ $8,480 - risk 3%, weight 5%
Total exposure - 10% of total portfolio.
Overall risk - approximately 1% of total portfolio.
Signals:
Bitcoin - triple tap off $8,460 - $8,510 w/ rising support and EW wave "5" possibility.
ETC - 50% fib support holding, with rising support.
Time: 2:45pm
ETC @ $9.087 - stop set @ $8.45 w/limit @ $8.35 - risk 8%, weight 5%
BTC @ $8,724 - stop set @ $8,490 w limit @ $8,480 - risk 3%, weight 5%
Total exposure - 10% of total portfolio.
Overall risk - approximately 1% of total portfolio.
Signals:
Bitcoin - triple tap off $8,460 - $8,510 w/ rising support and EW wave "5" possibility.
ETC - 50% fib support holding, with rising support.
Time: 2:45pm
Trade active:
(Correction) - Overall risk = 0.55% of total portfolio.
Additional, trade has instantly gone against me lol. But still in.
Additional, trade has instantly gone against me lol. But still in.
Trade active:
Still in, nothing has changed except for they did reduce Tether "market cap" by about $80,000,000 over night. Let's see if it affects prices negatively.
Trade active:
The Tether they pulled out of the market this AM has been re-introduced. Tether "market cap" back around $4,650,000,000.
Trade active:
We had BTC bounce off of $8,465 again, but did not penetrate it. I got stopped out but bought back in at $8,525 as I was anticipating, if we held at $8,465, a reversal surge (which we got)
I bought into XLM and more ETC when I bought back into bitcoin as well.
I'm anticipating a very possible surge to $10K. It will be short and sweet, and we'll probably re-trace completely to $8,200 range in a day or so after-wards (if it even happens).
At least, this is my prediction, this is how I'm playing. But I'm also playing very conservatively.
Total in = 20% of my portfolio
Total risk = 1% of my total portfolio
I bought into XLM and more ETC when I bought back into bitcoin as well.
I'm anticipating a very possible surge to $10K. It will be short and sweet, and we'll probably re-trace completely to $8,200 range in a day or so after-wards (if it even happens).
At least, this is my prediction, this is how I'm playing. But I'm also playing very conservatively.
Total in = 20% of my portfolio
Total risk = 1% of my total portfolio
Trade active:
Added positions in ETC & XLM.
Total in = 30% of portfolio
Total risk = 1.5% of total portfolio
Total in = 30% of portfolio
Total risk = 1.5% of total portfolio
Trade closed: stop reached:
Raised stops yesterday due to weakness in the market. Wave 5 never came, volume too low. Ended up losing 1% of portfolio. I knew it was a highly risky trade, and played as such. But the upside of a wave 5 surge had too much potential for large gains, so I took the risk. I don't think many more experienced traders would have however. Waiting for bitcoin to settle into the low $8,000 range and have it hold 5-year log support. My "MOABZ" chart is now the chart I'm playing.
Trade closed manually:
If anyone is curious, my portfolio start of year was $14K. Now at $19,900 (after losing the 1% overnight).