Just as I warned earlier, BTC price has corrected 23% from the top of $58k and currently sitting at ~$50k. Thanks to the preparation, I didn't lose a dime but, instead, have gained another 10% (by knife-catching ETH, not by shorting). So, what do I expect next in terms of BTC movement?
The current low of $44.9k might be the top and we could gradually grind up making another ATH. It could be as easy as that. However, I love to make things more complicated, and thus I come up with my two possible scenarios:
1. The Blue scenario: when the majority of people believe the bottom was in, price dump one more time to the area of ~$43.7k to $40k. To make life more dramatic, BTC price might dump to just below $43.7k to liquidate long positions and bounce up to front-run the bids in the $40k-42k zone. Then, price ranges for a while before going up again. This is also known as reaccumulation. In this case, the correction is gonna be ~28%.
2. The Red "bloody" scenario: price dump to the $40k-42k zone and bounce, all the bids get filled, people think they are geniuses. Then comes the max pain when the price drops further to the $32k-34k zone. Retail "investors" got f and institutions have another chance to jump into the market, driving the price to the moon. In this case, the correction is gonna be ~40%.
There are obviously hundreds of more scenarios, but I am expecting these two, and I am preferring the Blue one. In any cases, I think we need to see some kind of reaccumulation activities before a move higher. In the 30%-correction in Jan-2021, BTC also witnessed a couple days of ranging before pushing up higher. So now I just chill, observe and not rush in BTC.
Be prepared and have fun trading. If you find my posts helpful, please hit a like and I would be so happy. If you disagree, I would love to hear your opinion.
PS: the time span drawn in the chart is irrelevant, I did not consider the time factor when I drew.
The current low of $44.9k might be the top and we could gradually grind up making another ATH. It could be as easy as that. However, I love to make things more complicated, and thus I come up with my two possible scenarios:
1. The Blue scenario: when the majority of people believe the bottom was in, price dump one more time to the area of ~$43.7k to $40k. To make life more dramatic, BTC price might dump to just below $43.7k to liquidate long positions and bounce up to front-run the bids in the $40k-42k zone. Then, price ranges for a while before going up again. This is also known as reaccumulation. In this case, the correction is gonna be ~28%.
2. The Red "bloody" scenario: price dump to the $40k-42k zone and bounce, all the bids get filled, people think they are geniuses. Then comes the max pain when the price drops further to the $32k-34k zone. Retail "investors" got f and institutions have another chance to jump into the market, driving the price to the moon. In this case, the correction is gonna be ~40%.
There are obviously hundreds of more scenarios, but I am expecting these two, and I am preferring the Blue one. In any cases, I think we need to see some kind of reaccumulation activities before a move higher. In the 30%-correction in Jan-2021, BTC also witnessed a couple days of ranging before pushing up higher. So now I just chill, observe and not rush in BTC.
Be prepared and have fun trading. If you find my posts helpful, please hit a like and I would be so happy. If you disagree, I would love to hear your opinion.
PS: the time span drawn in the chart is irrelevant, I did not consider the time factor when I drew.
