funtimes

BITCOIN BREAKOUT! What's next, and how to play it.

Long
funtimes Updated   
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
If you have been following my last few BTC charts, clearly you are liking what you see and playing this perfectly.

You can see a few clear patterns formed on the daily chart over the last 9 months.

First is the range formed in grey in the background, lining up the $65K and $69K ATH points.

Next is this beautiful yellow arc with many clear touch points, predicting a climb back to at least the $69K all time high, and probably to a new ATH in the $70's between mid-April and mid-May.

Finally, we have our dear old friend. That black line gave us such strong love and support, and then such strong resistance! Can we flip it back to love and support on the way up to new highs?

My answer is, probably, YES.

The most likely path I see is a rejection close to $48K, a retest just under $45K, and then a jump to resistance near $50K, a breakthrough, and a retest of it before a very rapid ascent past that.

So these will be the turning points:
^$48K
v$44.7K
^$50K
v$48K
^^^$69-72K

Past that, I don't know what's most probable in the midterm, but I know both $100K and back to $40K are possible. There is a possibility for a strong pushback, government regulations, and the usual FUD coming back. There's a possibility for more nations adopting a BTC treasury, and so so so much more great news. Let's see when we get there! For now, I'm bearish for the next few days, followed by BULLISH, BULLISH, and BULLISH!

Good luck, enjoy, and remember that the whole point of this is to live a good, healthy life with love and compassion. Kindness will do more for your happiness than making more money. So start doing something kind by liking this post. Life is short, be great to your fellow people.

Comment:
So far this is going as expected. Current price $47.2K. The consolidation at $46.5-$48K has felt long and fragile but understand that there are two strong opposing forces at play. One is the TWAPping accumulation by Luna and others. If the timing of the previous breakouts holds, we should get another big green candle today. The other force is selling on fear of economic weakness, global recession, and risk-off behavior by market participants.

This is all short-term. In the end, Bitcoin will be the global transaction settlement layer and be priced accordingly. The journey there is where we are having fun in the meantime.
Comment:
I am waiting at the moment. I think the best risk-reward buy play will come when the arc wall is tested and holds.
Comment:
There's the first touch of the support range at $45.5K.
I'm not buying yet. Waiting for an arc wall touch and bounce. I think there's still a bit further down to go. Once the desired stop losses and liquidations happen we can resume bull mode.
Comment:
That bounce from $44.3K may have been it. It did not quite touch the arc wall but very close, close enough to be within the drawing error. I am not in yet, waiting for a touch and bounce off the wall. Although, I am tempted to start scaling in a long position I will wait a bit more.
Comment:
I am still waiting for the arc wall touch. That $44.3 may or may not have been it. I want it to confirm before I go in hard and I think we will get a clean touch in the next few days. Would rather get a higher entry but with a clear signal according to my chart. Patience!
Trade active:
OK, there is a clear touch of the arc wall. $45.8K.
Long entry here. Stop loss at $44K.
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