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BITCOIN - Final Capitulation is Near

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Cryptocurrencies have experienced quite a shake down lately, impacted by the challenges in the global economies as well as crypto world itself.
But how much deeper can Bitcoin fall before the final capitulation?

Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
  • The global count indicates that five wave impulse was completed at the peak of April 2021 - see the full chart below
  • An alternative scenario would be to have the fifth in November 2021. However, there are few reasons against it
  • First, the correction from the high of April was clearly formed by a five impulse which indicates that it is likely to be part of a bigger corrective pattern - marked as wave A
  • Second, the bull run from June 2021 to November can be at first looked at as an impulse, but at a closer look it is visible that some rules were broken - wave 4 is shorter in duration than wave 2, and generally it is more likely to be a series of zigzags - hence it can be counted as wave B
  • And finally, the latest drop from November high is also moving in a five wave formation - hence wave C of an Extended Flat
  • Given this five wave impulse have formed the first wave in the global cycle then the second wave can be expected to retrace to the level of 0.786x ($13900) or deeper, where the next support can be found at the level of accumulation in the previous wave 4 of a triangle, $9100
  • Once the correction is completed a new cycle in the global wave 3 will begin. However, it is likely that until the economy is fixed and Fed switches on stimulating monetary policy , this new bull cycle will be very slow to pick up the pace

What do you think about this scenario?

Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves.

Thanks


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