BobLoukas

#Bitcoin Cycles - Consolidation needed - Short-lived Bear Market

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We've seen a fantastic 9-month parabolic run of nearly 20x in price. This move occurred over a series of ebb & flow 60-day Cycles.

However, bull market runs do not continue indefinitely. And the amount of new retail customers who joined this space of late tells me that a good old fashioned (shakeout) and punishing bear market is absolutely needed.

If you look at this chart, you will see with the most recent Cycle Low that the parabola line was broken. During such moves parabola's need to maintain (and increase) there trajdectory to sustain the move. What this recent move is telling me is that a bear market decline has already clearly started. The lack of a V shaped recovery is confirming.

But do not despair, keep on Hodling and be patience. Be aware that the next Cycle Low should find a deeper low. So we might be looking at 120 days (2-cycles) for Bitcoin             to work its way back to recent highs. It would then be in the 3rd Cycle from now before it manages to breakout and begin yet another run. From the $20k range, another 5x to 10x rally is possible. A target of $100,000 by year end is achievable. Question is, will you puke your coin if we drop to the $5,000-$7,000 area in the coming month?
what does this failed cycle mean in your opinion, is the pattern broken or is it just an exception to the rule?
Reply
BobLoukas gerry123
@gerry123, Failed cycle simply means a bear trend. Not that the pattern failed.
+1 Reply
Won't puke, will eat. When it drops to around 7 lots will buy and pump to above 12, will hit news again and the cycle will start over.
+1 Reply
updateeee please
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excellent work
+1 Reply
So according to your chart we'll see one last rally to the low $16,000s for BTC?....., then it'll break down to about $8k-$7k....and I'm assuming LTC will follow a similar pattern, correct?
Reply
BobLoukas CashFlowCrypto
@CashFlowCrypto, So Price is really NOT the prediction.

I'm saying if the parabola has broken, and it's time for a consolidation, we should NOT see new highs in this cycle. Whether it goes back up to $12k, $14k or $16k is kind of irrelevant to this study.
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@BobLoukas, ah I see...only if the parabola is broken, then we'll see your chart play out.
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I'll buy mooooooore!
+4 Reply
Great work Bob. You know cycles better than anyone. US Dollar (fiat) broke down today...any thoughts as to whether or not that will feed a potential rally in crypto going forward if Dollar continues lower?
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