However, bull market runs do not continue indefinitely. And the amount of new retail customers who joined this space of late tells me that a good old fashioned (shakeout) and punishing bear market is absolutely needed.
If you look at this chart, you will see with the most recent Cycle Low that the parabola line was broken. During such moves parabola's need to maintain (and increase) there trajdectory to sustain the move. What this recent move is telling me is that a bear market decline has already clearly started. The lack of a V shaped recovery is confirming.
But do not despair, keep on Hodling and be patience. Be aware that the next Cycle Low should find a deeper low. So we might be looking at 120 days (2-cycles) for Bitcoin to work its way back to recent highs. It would then be in the 3rd Cycle from now before it manages to breakout and begin yet another run. From the $20k range, another 5x to 10x rally is possible. A target of $100,000 by year end is achievable. Question is, will you puke your coin if we drop to the $5,000-$7,000 area in the coming month?
I'm saying if the parabola has broken, and it's time for a consolidation, we should NOT see new highs in this cycle. Whether it goes back up to $12k, $14k or $16k is kind of irrelevant to this study.