Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic - Chart pasted again in comments
for better viewing the way it was intended.
The following link is an image to provide an example of one type of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1: i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png
It appears I was correct in a BTCUSD idea published on February 18, 2018 when I said, we dropped from ATH (All Time High) approximately 70%. It was my opinion <at the time> this required us to begin an Accumulation Schematic again. In another idea I published on March 11, 2018 I made the error of using the 360 minute (6h) Time Frame to draw conclusions on the "location" of events within the Schematic. As I've mentioned before, we should "generally" use high Time Frames (4-Day or higher) when applying Wyckoff rules and schematics to determine the long term Technical Analysis of a pair. I failed to exercise my very opinion recommended to others in previous publications. It's quite obvious, in my opinion, we are in an Accumulation Schematic. Apologies for not sticking with previous logic of accumulation after a 70% drop from All Time High.
When transitioning from one Schematic to another after a major event, it can be difficult at times to determine "where" we may be within a new schematic and whether it will be accumulation or distribution. We have learned from experience here that a 70% drop from All Time High definitely justified beginning a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. We would simply be challenged with the task to determine where Preliminary Support will be within that Accumulation Schematic to determine where an Automatic Rally should peak <approximately> near Preliminary Support level. In fact, the PEAK of the Automatic Rally in Phase A "confirms" our location for Preliminary Support as identified on the chart above.
We are currently in Phase B and heading down towards the bottom of the Trading Range between $5,920 and $11,780. I'm expecting us to fall just below the bottom of the trading range at $5,920 to approximately $5,366; where we will "potentially" begin a Wyckoff SPRING and mark the end of this bear trend.
It is said, "Phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend (See Wyckoff Law #2 – “Cause and Effect”). In phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup. The process of institutional accumulation may take a long time (sometimes a year or more), and involves purchasing coins at lower prices and checking advances in price with short sales. There are usually multiple Second Tests during Phase B, as well as upthrust-type actions at the upper end of the Trading Range. Overall, the large interests are net buyers of shares as the Tra evolves, with the goal of acquiring as much of the remaining floating supply as possible. Institutional buying and selling imparts the characteristic up-and-down price action of the trading range.
Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide, accompanied by high volume. As the professionals absorb the supply. However, the volume on downswings within the Trading Range tends will diminish. When it appears that supply is likely to have been exhausted, the coin is ready for Phase C.
Keep in mind, there is still the "possibility" for a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 i.imgur.com/54FyNdB.png to play out instead of #1. I'm leaning more with Accumulation Schematic #1
Here is a link with further information on the EVENTS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE SCHEMATIC. It was put together well in a short synopsis of Wyckoff Schematics: stockcharts.com...school/doku.php?id=chart_s...
Charts with indicators will follow soon.
The following link is an image to provide an example of one type of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1: i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png
It appears I was correct in a BTCUSD idea published on February 18, 2018 when I said, we dropped from ATH (All Time High) approximately 70%. It was my opinion <at the time> this required us to begin an Accumulation Schematic again. In another idea I published on March 11, 2018 I made the error of using the 360 minute (6h) Time Frame to draw conclusions on the "location" of events within the Schematic. As I've mentioned before, we should "generally" use high Time Frames (4-Day or higher) when applying Wyckoff rules and schematics to determine the long term Technical Analysis of a pair. I failed to exercise my very opinion recommended to others in previous publications. It's quite obvious, in my opinion, we are in an Accumulation Schematic. Apologies for not sticking with previous logic of accumulation after a 70% drop from All Time High.
When transitioning from one Schematic to another after a major event, it can be difficult at times to determine "where" we may be within a new schematic and whether it will be accumulation or distribution. We have learned from experience here that a 70% drop from All Time High definitely justified beginning a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. We would simply be challenged with the task to determine where Preliminary Support will be within that Accumulation Schematic to determine where an Automatic Rally should peak <approximately> near Preliminary Support level. In fact, the PEAK of the Automatic Rally in Phase A "confirms" our location for Preliminary Support as identified on the chart above.
We are currently in Phase B and heading down towards the bottom of the Trading Range between $5,920 and $11,780. I'm expecting us to fall just below the bottom of the trading range at $5,920 to approximately $5,366; where we will "potentially" begin a Wyckoff SPRING and mark the end of this bear trend.
It is said, "Phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend (See Wyckoff Law #2 – “Cause and Effect”). In phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup. The process of institutional accumulation may take a long time (sometimes a year or more), and involves purchasing coins at lower prices and checking advances in price with short sales. There are usually multiple Second Tests during Phase B, as well as upthrust-type actions at the upper end of the Trading Range. Overall, the large interests are net buyers of shares as the Tra evolves, with the goal of acquiring as much of the remaining floating supply as possible. Institutional buying and selling imparts the characteristic up-and-down price action of the trading range.
Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide, accompanied by high volume. As the professionals absorb the supply. However, the volume on downswings within the Trading Range tends will diminish. When it appears that supply is likely to have been exhausted, the coin is ready for Phase C.
Keep in mind, there is still the "possibility" for a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 i.imgur.com/54FyNdB.png to play out instead of #1. I'm leaning more with Accumulation Schematic #1
Here is a link with further information on the EVENTS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE SCHEMATIC. It was put together well in a short synopsis of Wyckoff Schematics: stockcharts.com...school/doku.php?id=chart_s...
Charts with indicators will follow soon.
Comment:
4-Day TF with Indicators:
Comment:
2-Day TF:
Quick reminder before looking at the 2-Day TF: There's a "possibility" a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 can play out i.imgur.com/54FyNdB.png BUT I'm still leaning more towards Accumulations Schematic #1 i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png
Quick reminder before looking at the 2-Day TF: There's a "possibility" a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 can play out i.imgur.com/54FyNdB.png BUT I'm still leaning more towards Accumulations Schematic #1 i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png
Comment:
Lets get a historical perspective on what we're currently dealing with:
The SPRING can "possibly" begin around June 22nd. It's marked below with Blue Vertical Time Line inside the top indicator located near the bottom of the chart lined up with the text bubble, "SPRING."
2018 2-Day Time Frame:
2014 2-Day Time Frame:
The SPRING can "possibly" begin around June 22nd. It's marked below with Blue Vertical Time Line inside the top indicator located near the bottom of the chart lined up with the text bubble, "SPRING."
2018 2-Day Time Frame:
2014 2-Day Time Frame:
Comment:
Another IMPORTANT NOTE:
In 2014 we ended up with MULTIPLE Automatic Rallies and TESTS in Phase B. It's possible we could have MULTIPLE Automatice Rallies and TESTS in Phase B in 2018 as well. We cannot rule that out. We simply have to be on guard and pay close attention to indicators as those "potential" events unfold.
In 2014 we ended up with MULTIPLE Automatic Rallies and TESTS in Phase B. It's possible we could have MULTIPLE Automatice Rallies and TESTS in Phase B in 2018 as well. We cannot rule that out. We simply have to be on guard and pay close attention to indicators as those "potential" events unfold.
Comment:
This is an update on progress of our downward progression during this bout of downward pressure:
2-Day TF:
3-Day TF:
4-Day TF:
A new publication will be created for ETHUSD later this evening or tomorrow.
2-Day TF:
3-Day TF:
4-Day TF:
A new publication will be created for ETHUSD later this evening or tomorrow.
Comment:
Update with the 2-Day, 3-Day and 4-Day on one chart. You can compare them with previous posts of those same time frames from May 28th update.
Comment:
I've been doing some Fundamental Analysis (FA) on financial and economic fundamentals of countries around the world. If any of you have been keeping up with what's going on with Italy and Deutsche Bank, either one of these can be the catalyst to spark of a domino affect around the world like Lehman Brothers in the Great Recession of 2008.
Deutsche Bank is the LARGE HOLDER of Italian debt as well. Not sure if everyone knew that. If we have a lot of Europeans paying attention to this potential crisis, we might see capital flight out of the Euro into Crypto Currency. If so, this could disrupt the Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 from playing out by NOT falling just below the bottom support of the Trading Range. But instead, send us sideways for a bit and we slowly begin moving up. This could bring in more buyers to contend with current "supply" that has been surpassing the price as of late.
What we saw with increased liquidity into the crypto currency markets during the Greek Debt Crisis may be very small in comparison to what may occur with the entire European Union in a Debt Crisis.
Deutsche Bank is the LARGE HOLDER of Italian debt as well. Not sure if everyone knew that. If we have a lot of Europeans paying attention to this potential crisis, we might see capital flight out of the Euro into Crypto Currency. If so, this could disrupt the Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 from playing out by NOT falling just below the bottom support of the Trading Range. But instead, send us sideways for a bit and we slowly begin moving up. This could bring in more buyers to contend with current "supply" that has been surpassing the price as of late.
What we saw with increased liquidity into the crypto currency markets during the Greek Debt Crisis may be very small in comparison to what may occur with the entire European Union in a Debt Crisis.
Comment:
I meant to say, "suppressing" the market NOT "surpassing."
Comment:
2-Day TF: I've drawn blue scribble to depict the "potential" future movement of the Blue LSMA in Phoenix 1.393 (top indicator) and the Blue line for Stochastic RSI. Which means I see the" possibility" for us to go up to the $8,000 to $8,250 range before coming down further to confirm a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.
IF we do not come down to the bottom of the trading range around $6,000 or a little lower before reversing to a bullish trend, then this would signal we're more than likely in an Accumulation Schematic #2 instead of #1.
Currently, the Daily (1440m) TF shows signs of "potentially" turning back downside. The text bubbles in the Daily TF (below) explain:
IF we do not come down to the bottom of the trading range around $6,000 or a little lower before reversing to a bullish trend, then this would signal we're more than likely in an Accumulation Schematic #2 instead of #1.
Currently, the Daily (1440m) TF shows signs of "potentially" turning back downside. The text bubbles in the Daily TF (below) explain:
Comment:
Daily (1440m) TF: Added a Burgundy Text Bubble:
12h (720m) TF:
12h (720m) TF:
Comment:
Current economic climate in Europe "might" be having an affect on Bitcoin price action. Have a look at this 3-Day TF:
4-Day TF:
Here's a look at the Daily (1440m) on the left and the 2-Day TF on the right:
4-Day TF:
Here's a look at the Daily (1440m) on the left and the 2-Day TF on the right:
Comment:
I'm seeing QUESTION MARKS with no screen shots on my end. Can someone tell me if they are seeing all 3 charts I just posted? Cause I'm not seeing them...
Comment:
Apologies for the delay with updates. Pulled a lower left back muscle lifting the riding lawn mower to place on center blocks for an oil change. Rested it a couple of days and continued my work with the mining room remodel; only to re-injur my back once again. This time worse than previous. It's hard to sit up or down without grimacing from severe pain. Enough about my back and on to the update.
Here's the Daily (1440m) TF with notes inside text bubbles:
This 12h (720m) TF is my reason why I stated the "potential" for the Blue LSMA in the DAILY (1440m) TF to turn back down around the 60% level. Note how the Blue LSMA in the 12h (720m) has already advanced quite a bit and not far at all from the 80% level.
2-Day TF:
3-Day TF:
4-Day TF:
7-Day TF:
Here's the Daily (1440m) TF with notes inside text bubbles:
This 12h (720m) TF is my reason why I stated the "potential" for the Blue LSMA in the DAILY (1440m) TF to turn back down around the 60% level. Note how the Blue LSMA in the 12h (720m) has already advanced quite a bit and not far at all from the 80% level.
2-Day TF:
3-Day TF:
4-Day TF:
7-Day TF:
Comment:
The last chart (7-Day TF) I made a spelling error in the light green text bubble with black text. The word "below" should have been BEFORE.
Here's the correction:
Stochastic RSI lis still in a downward trajectory while the
Phoenix ARI is more or less sideways with no clear indication of
a reversal to the upside. These two indicators combined with
what we're seeing in Phoenix 1.393 (Godmode) above has me
leaning towards this 7-Day candle NOT being the one to signal
a clear decisive reversal to the upside. Especially with the
possibility of the Blue LSMA (above in Phoenix 1.393) continuing
downward below the 20% level BEFORE we get a clear signal for
reversal to the upside. This is beginning to look more like a
potential Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 but not confirmed.
Here's the correction:
Stochastic RSI lis still in a downward trajectory while the
Phoenix ARI is more or less sideways with no clear indication of
a reversal to the upside. These two indicators combined with
what we're seeing in Phoenix 1.393 (Godmode) above has me
leaning towards this 7-Day candle NOT being the one to signal
a clear decisive reversal to the upside. Especially with the
possibility of the Blue LSMA (above in Phoenix 1.393) continuing
downward below the 20% level BEFORE we get a clear signal for
reversal to the upside. This is beginning to look more like a
potential Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 but not confirmed.
Comment:
Well, my estimate for local top before coming back down was certainly off. I thought we would run up to my Red SMMA 50 (around $8,000 to $8,500) before coming back down. However, we only went up to $7,850.
Have a look at the 7-Day TF:
Here's the 4-Day as well:
Have a look at the 7-Day TF:
Here's the 4-Day as well:
Comment:
Odds are HIGH we stay within this channel on this drop down over the next several days:
Daily (1440 minute) TF:
Daily (1440 minute) TF:
Comment:
I had a look at higher the frames (TF's) simply to make sure I'm considering all possible options of how far down we can potentially go. The chart below is the 11-Day TF. It appears the Blue LSMA has room to fall further in Phoenix 1.393. The Stochastic RSI has turned downward and may continue down to the 0.0% level before we see a chance of a reversal. Also note how the Phoenix ARI has remained below the 20% level. Looks like we could "potentially" go down to $4,573. If we drop substantially below $4,573, we could be looking at $2,500 to $2,900. Will keep you posted...
Comment:
I'm quoting some comments I made in another forum that may be of interest to some:
The odds are decently high we are in the later stage of Phase B in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1. I'm getting this signal based on the price action since the fall from All Time High (ATH) of $19,666 on BitStamp and from the indicators I'm using.
Yes, there's a "possibility" this is not an Accumulation Schematic but a Distribution Schematic instead. If we go substantially below $4,573.20, this will invalidate an Accumulation Schematic and confirm we were actually in Phase E of a Distribution Schematic all along. This would require us to begin looking for a "Selling Climax" and a "base" to form shortly afterwards to mark the beginning of Phase A in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. If this is the case, we can pretty much rest assured the likely-hood of $100,000 bitcoin price is out the window for 2018 year end. We would actually struggle to reach $25,000 by year end if we drop below $4,000; resulting in stating a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic from the beginning at Phase A.
I believe it's worth noting the volume is decreasing while the price action is falling in this 11-Day Time Frame. This is usually a good signal we are "potentially" nearing the end of Phase B and about to enter Phase C in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. Which see in the chart below:
EDIT: We "could" end up rolling into another Automatic Rally and come down once more to current price range; which would delay beginning a Wyckoff Spring until September/October, 2018.
Then someone replied to my post above saying, "Volume down = price down NO matter how strong is support."
My Response:
Just because Bull composite groups have not shown their "support" as of yet does not mean "support" does not exist. In fact, I'm not expecting the bull "composite groups" to reveal their "support" until AFTER we fall just below $5,920.72. THAT price point will be the point at which we begin to pay more attention as to whether this will result in a Wyckoff Accumulation or Distribution Schematic.
I'm still leaning towards an Accumulation Schematic according to diminishing volume and what I'm seeing in my indicators. IF we fall substantially below $4,573.20, then Phase B of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic has been invalidated and we should begin looking for a Selling Climax; followed by a forming base to begin Phase A of a Wycoff Accumulation Schematic.
EDIT: Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide, accompanied by high volume. As the professionals absorb the supply, however, the volume on downswings within the Trading Range tends to diminish. When it appears that supply is likely to have been exhausted, the coin/stock is ready for Phase C. That is what we see developing here in my opinion.
The odds are decently high we are in the later stage of Phase B in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1. I'm getting this signal based on the price action since the fall from All Time High (ATH) of $19,666 on BitStamp and from the indicators I'm using.
Yes, there's a "possibility" this is not an Accumulation Schematic but a Distribution Schematic instead. If we go substantially below $4,573.20, this will invalidate an Accumulation Schematic and confirm we were actually in Phase E of a Distribution Schematic all along. This would require us to begin looking for a "Selling Climax" and a "base" to form shortly afterwards to mark the beginning of Phase A in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. If this is the case, we can pretty much rest assured the likely-hood of $100,000 bitcoin price is out the window for 2018 year end. We would actually struggle to reach $25,000 by year end if we drop below $4,000; resulting in stating a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic from the beginning at Phase A.
I believe it's worth noting the volume is decreasing while the price action is falling in this 11-Day Time Frame. This is usually a good signal we are "potentially" nearing the end of Phase B and about to enter Phase C in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. Which see in the chart below:
EDIT: We "could" end up rolling into another Automatic Rally and come down once more to current price range; which would delay beginning a Wyckoff Spring until September/October, 2018.
Then someone replied to my post above saying, "Volume down = price down NO matter how strong is support."
My Response:
Just because Bull composite groups have not shown their "support" as of yet does not mean "support" does not exist. In fact, I'm not expecting the bull "composite groups" to reveal their "support" until AFTER we fall just below $5,920.72. THAT price point will be the point at which we begin to pay more attention as to whether this will result in a Wyckoff Accumulation or Distribution Schematic.
I'm still leaning towards an Accumulation Schematic according to diminishing volume and what I'm seeing in my indicators. IF we fall substantially below $4,573.20, then Phase B of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic has been invalidated and we should begin looking for a Selling Climax; followed by a forming base to begin Phase A of a Wycoff Accumulation Schematic.
EDIT: Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide, accompanied by high volume. As the professionals absorb the supply, however, the volume on downswings within the Trading Range tends to diminish. When it appears that supply is likely to have been exhausted, the coin/stock is ready for Phase C. That is what we see developing here in my opinion.
Comment:
Those (with PRO accounts) using Godmode 3.1 mod with LSMA and Stochastic RSI may want to have a look at my reply to Andbcoin's question below in "followers comments." Please feel free to add anything else I may have over looked or did not even take into consideration.
Comment:
Thought I would go ahead and create a chart describing details of each event within each phase of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1. I hope you're able to read it. It's a LOT of information to put on one chart.
Comment:
When we get to a cross-road I usually begin to get stressed out. Not because of FUD on my own behalf. But because I just simply HATE BEING WRONG on behalf of those who may be following my "opinion."
The fact we were coming down to at least our current locate WAS EASY to decipher. The hard part is when we get very close to a particular event within a phase I predicted and constantly pondering if the following event may be a different event within a different Phase. Meaning, it's POSSIBLE I would have to SHIFT all of my phases over to the right some and identify our current location as a TEST before "ANOTHER" Automatic Rally (AR) within Phase B before going down to a Spring in Phase C.
Have a look at the white text bubbles I've drawn here in this 2-Day TF:
The fact we were coming down to at least our current locate WAS EASY to decipher. The hard part is when we get very close to a particular event within a phase I predicted and constantly pondering if the following event may be a different event within a different Phase. Meaning, it's POSSIBLE I would have to SHIFT all of my phases over to the right some and identify our current location as a TEST before "ANOTHER" Automatic Rally (AR) within Phase B before going down to a Spring in Phase C.
Have a look at the white text bubbles I've drawn here in this 2-Day TF:
Comment:
I'm posting a reply here to a statement I just received from an avid follower:
STATEMENT:
I was counting waves as well, and using fractals that showed 3.5k, but maybe he's right. You cannot say it goes to this level for sure. It's just guessing where it will go.
REPLY:
Correct, it is guessing to a certain degree. That's WHY I use my indicators along with Wyckoff in order to TRY to get a better handle on events as they play out.
It's VERY OBVIOUS to me we will be going up VERY SOON. It's just a matter of WHEN. Is THIS the time we go up for yet ANOTHER Automatic Rally (AR2) and all phases shift to the right to reconcile the TA with the price action - OR - was my TA correct and I simply need to settle down and trust my TA.
STATEMENT:
I was counting waves as well, and using fractals that showed 3.5k, but maybe he's right. You cannot say it goes to this level for sure. It's just guessing where it will go.
REPLY:
Correct, it is guessing to a certain degree. That's WHY I use my indicators along with Wyckoff in order to TRY to get a better handle on events as they play out.
It's VERY OBVIOUS to me we will be going up VERY SOON. It's just a matter of WHEN. Is THIS the time we go up for yet ANOTHER Automatic Rally (AR2) and all phases shift to the right to reconcile the TA with the price action - OR - was my TA correct and I simply need to settle down and trust my TA.
Comment:
Posting on more statement from the same follower and that will be it. I don't want to get on the nerves of too many followers who may get irritated by email notifications they receive when I post updates.
STATEMENT:
My advice is, don't trust anyone and follow your TA unless you see anything different.
Don't be influenced by bears, bag holders and stuff. And don't invest til you confirm 100% your TA.
Also, investing now is very risky unless you are the best in it. I've seen Stoch RSI going up and price not moving and going down again. I haven't invested for months but just reading and analysing the chart.
REPLY:
That's why I like my Phoenix ARI "merged" with Stochastic RSI. That's why I also insist on looking at many more time frames before drawing my own conclusions.
I'm most certainly sticking to my TA based on the conclusions I've made from the due diligence I just stated in the previous sentence. If I happen to see something within the indicators that would influence me to change my conclusion, I will definitely share it with followers here. I've simply been thinking out loud to let others see what I'm thinking and to allow others to experience the doubt and uncertainty that still creeps into my mind on occasions.
STATEMENT:
My advice is, don't trust anyone and follow your TA unless you see anything different.
Don't be influenced by bears, bag holders and stuff. And don't invest til you confirm 100% your TA.
Also, investing now is very risky unless you are the best in it. I've seen Stoch RSI going up and price not moving and going down again. I haven't invested for months but just reading and analysing the chart.
REPLY:
That's why I like my Phoenix ARI "merged" with Stochastic RSI. That's why I also insist on looking at many more time frames before drawing my own conclusions.
I'm most certainly sticking to my TA based on the conclusions I've made from the due diligence I just stated in the previous sentence. If I happen to see something within the indicators that would influence me to change my conclusion, I will definitely share it with followers here. I've simply been thinking out loud to let others see what I'm thinking and to allow others to experience the doubt and uncertainty that still creeps into my mind on occasions.
Comment:
Some argue we are going down to $3,000 based off what they are seeing in the Monthly time frame (TF) with the Blue LSMA in the top indicator still having a LOT of room to come down AND with the Phoenix ARI still have room to come down to meet the Stochastic RSI at the bottom. Which see:
HOWEVER, my argument is to inform others who use the indicators I recommend that the Blue LSMA in the Monthly time frame DOES NOT have to come down to the 20% or lower level before a reversal will occur. WHEN we get into Time Frames that are much higher than the 2-Week TF, the likely-hood of the Blue LSMA coming all the way down from 80% or higher level to 20% or lower level diminishes. It would take a SERIOUS bear market for the Blue LSMA to fall that much in the Monthly TF.
Here's an example of what I'm talking about with EURUSD Monthly TF. Pay attention to the level the Blue LSMA comes down to in the Monthly TF. Yes, it comes all the way down to 20% or lower level on occasions but not all the time.
Bitcoin/USD does not have enough history to have a better idea as to whether or not the Blue LSMA will actually come down to the 20% level or lower. One could go to the 2-Month TF in EURUSD to get a better idea if the Blue LSMA in the 1-Month was going to go all the way down to 20% or lower level.
Here's the 1-Month EURUSD pair:
By the way, the Red Vertical Time Lines represent SHORT. The Black Vertical Time Lines represent LONG. I teach others on Trading View how to use Godmode indicator on occasions. Here is a publication I created to provide information on how to use it. By the way, it was a rough draft and NOT organized at all. I was simply documenting what I was learning WHILE learning it.
HOWEVER, my argument is to inform others who use the indicators I recommend that the Blue LSMA in the Monthly time frame DOES NOT have to come down to the 20% or lower level before a reversal will occur. WHEN we get into Time Frames that are much higher than the 2-Week TF, the likely-hood of the Blue LSMA coming all the way down from 80% or higher level to 20% or lower level diminishes. It would take a SERIOUS bear market for the Blue LSMA to fall that much in the Monthly TF.
Here's an example of what I'm talking about with EURUSD Monthly TF. Pay attention to the level the Blue LSMA comes down to in the Monthly TF. Yes, it comes all the way down to 20% or lower level on occasions but not all the time.
Bitcoin/USD does not have enough history to have a better idea as to whether or not the Blue LSMA will actually come down to the 20% level or lower. One could go to the 2-Month TF in EURUSD to get a better idea if the Blue LSMA in the 1-Month was going to go all the way down to 20% or lower level.
Here's the 1-Month EURUSD pair:
By the way, the Red Vertical Time Lines represent SHORT. The Black Vertical Time Lines represent LONG. I teach others on Trading View how to use Godmode indicator on occasions. Here is a publication I created to provide information on how to use it. By the way, it was a rough draft and NOT organized at all. I was simply documenting what I was learning WHILE learning it.
Comment:
We still have to be more patient for several days yet before reversal. I'm still expecting another leg down before reversal.
Do NOT mind the white text bubbles with Wyckoff acronyms. I placed them at their
current location as a "possibility" if we do not go below $5,920.72 on BitStamp. However, I believe we will go below $5,920.72 and down to at least $5,366. My opinion...
Have a look at the 4-Day TF:
Daily (1440m) TF:
3-Day TF:
7-Day TF:
Do NOT mind the white text bubbles with Wyckoff acronyms. I placed them at their
current location as a "possibility" if we do not go below $5,920.72 on BitStamp. However, I believe we will go below $5,920.72 and down to at least $5,366. My opinion...
Have a look at the 4-Day TF:
Daily (1440m) TF:
3-Day TF:
7-Day TF:
Comment:
Last update nearly 24 hours ago. Now would be just as good of a time as any for another update:
12h (720m) TF:
6h (360m) TF:
12h (720m) TF:
6h (360m) TF:
Comment:
Just a brief update regarding the 12h (720m) TF:
Comment:
The Phoenix ARI has made a leap upwards in the 12h (720m) TF. So, our anticipated drop just below the lower boundary of the trading range ($5,920.72) may be prolonged; as depicted in the post I made on June 16th. The trend according to the higher time frames is still bearish.
Comment:
Simply pointing out two potential options here in the 6h (360m) TF:
Comment:
Apologies for the multiple email notifications you're receiving today from these updates. You can expect more frequent updates like this when we are approaching a potential MAJOR reversal to the upside or downside.
Here's an update gathered from the 1080m (18h) TF:
Here's an update gathered from the 1080m (18h) TF:
Comment:
Simply a look at a couple of time frames in charts for an update. Remember to pay attention to where any lines or ghost are at 80% or higher; indicating potential exhaustion coming soon. Also, remember to pay attention to what levels the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI.
360m (6h) on left and 720m (12h) on right:
180m (3h) on left and 240m (4h) on right:
60m (1h) on left and 120m (2h) on right:
360m (6h) on left and 720m (12h) on right:
180m (3h) on left and 240m (4h) on right:
60m (1h) on left and 120m (2h) on right:
Comment:
720m (12h) TF:
The charts following; I want you to pay close attention to the location of the Blue LSMA (In your Godmode 3.1 mod with LSMA) in each time frame. Also pay attention to the location of Stochastic RSI merged with Phoenix ARI. When we see indicators topped out in a particular time frame, we should be going to the next highest time frame to TRY to get an idea of when the current move may be approaching exhaustion. Notice, I have jumped 120 minutes (2 hours) between each higher time frame to try to get a handle on when upside exhaustion is here and a reversal is imminent.
360m (6h) on left and 480m (8h) on right:
600m (10h) on left and 720m (12h) on right:
1080m (18h) on left and 1200m (20h) on right:
The charts following; I want you to pay close attention to the location of the Blue LSMA (In your Godmode 3.1 mod with LSMA) in each time frame. Also pay attention to the location of Stochastic RSI merged with Phoenix ARI. When we see indicators topped out in a particular time frame, we should be going to the next highest time frame to TRY to get an idea of when the current move may be approaching exhaustion. Notice, I have jumped 120 minutes (2 hours) between each higher time frame to try to get a handle on when upside exhaustion is here and a reversal is imminent.
360m (6h) on left and 480m (8h) on right:
600m (10h) on left and 720m (12h) on right:
1080m (18h) on left and 1200m (20h) on right:
Comment:
A look at the 6-Day and 7-Day TF's side by side... The Stochastic RSI is getting very close to bottom at 0.0% level before potential reversal to the upside.
REMEMBER: When the Stochastic RSI and/or the Blue LSMA are maxed out in one time frame, move to a higher time frame to TRY to get an idea of when reversal is at hand.
REMEMBER: When the Stochastic RSI and/or the Blue LSMA are maxed out in one time frame, move to a higher time frame to TRY to get an idea of when reversal is at hand.
Comment:
Since an individual has banned me from making comments on his YouTube channel pointing out his ERROR when using Wyckoff; I'm going to point out his ERROR here and warn others to be careful regarding what this guy teaches in regards to Wyckoff Analysis. I cannot post a link to his YouTube Channel or Website on here in order to respect Trading View Rules. However, I'm sure he will get a notification soon of this post.
The error I'm about to show is quite common among those who use Wyckoff and I feel it's important to share it here for others to learn. This is simply an IMAGE to a commonly used website for "images"
i.imgur.com/uhJdsPS.png
The error I'm about to show is quite common among those who use Wyckoff and I feel it's important to share it here for others to learn. This is simply an IMAGE to a commonly used website for "images"
i.imgur.com/uhJdsPS.png
Comment:
Before I get to work installing some duct work in my mining room, I wanted to provide a quick update for Bitcoin. Looking at the 360m and 720m time frames, it's looking like upside pressure MIGHT be breaking down and a reversal is close at hand. Again, it looks like it's potentially breaking down.
Comment:
Like I said 5 hours ago: "Upside Pressure IS breaking down."
Comment:
A couple of mathematicians friends of mine were kind to do some math for me with Bulkowaski's Measure Rule on Price Spreads thepatternsite.com/measure.html I will include their findings below. My $5,366 number was mainly just from me eyeballing the spreads of each leg down from the previous peak at $9,948.98.
Mathematician #1:
If I've done it right Bulkowski not so generous with the minimum target so anywhere between $5924~$6183 but thats using Percentage Meeting Price 55% for second leg down.
Mathematician #2:
the ones I've done were for the first leg down...all depends on the structure of the candles prior to the drop
Bulkowski breakout from a rising wedge should end up at 6289.8244.
Rising wedge, breakout down from TL Cross 6289.8244
Rising wedge, breakout down from lowest low 5786.3644
Rising triangle, breakout down from TL Cross 6130.7952
Rising triangle, breakout down from lowest low 5627.3352
Here's a look at the 3h (180m) and 12h (720m) TF's. The 3h shows a bounce is underway. However, when looking at the 12h, we see there is still plenty of room to continue this downside pressure. So, we're not expecting a reversal here. We're expecting a dead-cat bounce with a return back to downside pressure.
Mathematician #1:
If I've done it right Bulkowski not so generous with the minimum target so anywhere between $5924~$6183 but thats using Percentage Meeting Price 55% for second leg down.
Mathematician #2:
the ones I've done were for the first leg down...all depends on the structure of the candles prior to the drop
Bulkowski breakout from a rising wedge should end up at 6289.8244.
Rising wedge, breakout down from TL Cross 6289.8244
Rising wedge, breakout down from lowest low 5786.3644
Rising triangle, breakout down from TL Cross 6130.7952
Rising triangle, breakout down from lowest low 5627.3352
Here's a look at the 3h (180m) and 12h (720m) TF's. The 3h shows a bounce is underway. However, when looking at the 12h, we see there is still plenty of room to continue this downside pressure. So, we're not expecting a reversal here. We're expecting a dead-cat bounce with a return back to downside pressure.
Comment:
First off, let me emphasize the price action does NOT have to play out as I have depicted in previous charts in regards to the location of the bottom and the "Spring." For instance, have a look at what occurred in 2015 with the Spring NOT going below the lowest support line marked by the Selling Climax:
The price action could actually play out a number of ways. I simply want to make sure we do NOT assume the price action for a potential Spring does not play out as we ASSUME. Hence, the reason for indicators. I will be focusing on the 180m (3h), 360m (6h) and 720m (12h) quite a bit until reversal is in the bag.
Here's an example of another way it could play out, potentially:
The price action could actually play out a number of ways. I simply want to make sure we do NOT assume the price action for a potential Spring does not play out as we ASSUME. Hence, the reason for indicators. I will be focusing on the 180m (3h), 360m (6h) and 720m (12h) quite a bit until reversal is in the bag.
Here's an example of another way it could play out, potentially:
Comment:
Hmmmmm, I did not intend to SEND the previous post. Not sure HOW it was sent. Don't recall clicking the "Update Idea" icon. Oh well.
Some more additional notes:
Some more additional notes:
Comment:
NOTE the 90m on the far left. The Blue LSMA is currently at 48.8% level. We probably won't see complete upside exhaustion in the 90m TF until the Blue LSMA has reached the 80% level. This may take another 3 or 4 90m candles to do so. The Purple Ghost in the 180m on the left has already peaked over the 80% level; signaling exhaustion is near.
Comment:
I meant to say the 180m TF is on the right. Not the left. I'm sure everyone would have figured it out.
; )
; )
Comment:
We will probably see reversal to the upside when our Blue LSMA in the 90m TF (on the far left) reaches the 20% or lower level. It's POSSIBLE at the 50% level but more than likely at the 20% level. We'll keep tabs on it...
Comment:
NOTE: The Blue LSMA in the 360m (on the far right) will probably be at 20% or lower WHEN the Blue LSMA in the 90m TF reaches the 20% or lower level.
Comment:
We've already had our drop below the lowest boundary line of
the trading range here. Which confirms Wyckoff Schematic #1.
That lowest marker of the boundary for support was $5,920.72.
Will we go any lower from here? It's possible when looking at
Godmode Blue LSMA. It's trying to turn up right at the 20% level
in the 360m (6h) TF but that doesn't mean it will turn for sure.
Will the Green Line turn back down for another go at the lower
boundary of the trading range? It's possible when looking at the
90m TF.
Let me make one thing clear: If you're reading this text bubble
and NOT a Market Maker, the odds of you getting in at the very
bottom of an entry or getting out at the very top of an exit is
very low. That's expecting too much. Even when using these
indicators. The ONLY way you stand a decent chance of more
precise entry and/or exit at MAJOR reversal events in Wyckoff
Schematics is to begin swing trading the hourly or the 30m TF's.
If you have lots of capital to purchase a lot of crypto, you should
have begun that accumulation process already in my "OPINION."
If you're a small player, like myself, there's still plenty of time to
make decision about "entry" and still have excellent gains at or
near the top of the next event for exit.
360m (6h) TF:
720m (12h) TF:
the trading range here. Which confirms Wyckoff Schematic #1.
That lowest marker of the boundary for support was $5,920.72.
Will we go any lower from here? It's possible when looking at
Godmode Blue LSMA. It's trying to turn up right at the 20% level
in the 360m (6h) TF but that doesn't mean it will turn for sure.
Will the Green Line turn back down for another go at the lower
boundary of the trading range? It's possible when looking at the
90m TF.
Let me make one thing clear: If you're reading this text bubble
and NOT a Market Maker, the odds of you getting in at the very
bottom of an entry or getting out at the very top of an exit is
very low. That's expecting too much. Even when using these
indicators. The ONLY way you stand a decent chance of more
precise entry and/or exit at MAJOR reversal events in Wyckoff
Schematics is to begin swing trading the hourly or the 30m TF's.
If you have lots of capital to purchase a lot of crypto, you should
have begun that accumulation process already in my "OPINION."
If you're a small player, like myself, there's still plenty of time to
make decision about "entry" and still have excellent gains at or
near the top of the next event for exit.
360m (6h) TF:
720m (12h) TF:
Comment:
180m TF:
Blue LSMA is approaching 80% level to mark upside exhaustion. The Stochastic RSI has also maxed out at the 100% level and remained a above 80% level for several 180m candles already.
360m TF:
When the Stochastic RSI has already maxed out in a lower TF, we look to a higher TF (Double the previous TF); which is this 360m TF. The stochastic RSI in the 360m has just barely touched the 80% level. So, the upside pressure is approaching exhaustion. This can also be seen by the Purple Ghost in Phoenix Indicator already above 80% level. However, the Green line in the 360m has not quite made it to the 80% level yet. Getting close though.
720m TF:
The Purple Ghost is already above the 80% level; which may also signal upside exhaustion is approaching.
The 180m TF has 1.5 hours remaining before a new candle begins. The 45m and 90m TF's below also look topped out and may be signaling upside exhaustion is near as well. Does this mean we have to come down significantly? No... We are trying to determine if the SPRING and TEST have already occurred; if only the Spring has occurred OR if none of them have occurred yet.
180m TF:
Blue LSMA is approaching 80% level to mark upside exhaustion. The Stochastic RSI has also maxed out at the 100% level and remained a above 80% level for several 180m candles already.
360m TF:
When the Stochastic RSI has already maxed out in a lower TF, we look to a higher TF (Double the previous TF); which is this 360m TF. The stochastic RSI in the 360m has just barely touched the 80% level. So, the upside pressure is approaching exhaustion. This can also be seen by the Purple Ghost in Phoenix Indicator already above 80% level. However, the Green line in the 360m has not quite made it to the 80% level yet. Getting close though.
720m TF:
The Purple Ghost is already above the 80% level; which may also signal upside exhaustion is approaching.
The 180m TF has 1.5 hours remaining before a new candle begins. The 45m and 90m TF's below also look topped out and may be signaling upside exhaustion is near as well. Does this mean we have to come down significantly? No... We are trying to determine if the SPRING and TEST have already occurred; if only the Spring has occurred OR if none of them have occurred yet.
Comment:
Posting the 1440m (Daily), 2-Day and 3-Day Time Frames for you to have a look at the levels of the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI in each time frame. Also note the Blue LSMA in each time frame. It appears to be no clear signal of reversal yet but we're getting close.
Comment:
Someone asked: "do you have a record of the last time there was a confirmed SPRING so we can compare it with the actual situation, maybe there is something we can get from that, thanks"
That would be the chart below. Important note from an excellent short tutorial on Wyckoff:
Rule One: Don't expect the market to behave exactly the same way twice. The market is an artist, not a computer. It has a repertoire of basic behavior patterns that it subtly modifies, combines and springs unexpectedly on its audience. A trading market is an entity with a mind of its own.
Rule Two: Today's market behavior is significant only when it's compared to what the market did yesterday, last week, last month, even last year. There are no predetermined, never-fail levels where the market always changes. Everything the market does today must be compared to what it did before.
Nothing wrong with comparing while keeping those two rules in mind.
That would be the chart below. Important note from an excellent short tutorial on Wyckoff:
Rule One: Don't expect the market to behave exactly the same way twice. The market is an artist, not a computer. It has a repertoire of basic behavior patterns that it subtly modifies, combines and springs unexpectedly on its audience. A trading market is an entity with a mind of its own.
Rule Two: Today's market behavior is significant only when it's compared to what the market did yesterday, last week, last month, even last year. There are no predetermined, never-fail levels where the market always changes. Everything the market does today must be compared to what it did before.
Nothing wrong with comparing while keeping those two rules in mind.
Comment:
WYCKOFF SPRINGS ARE A "GOOD THING."
WHY?
Because they are normally followed by multiple waves re-acumulation/re-distribution while moving up in a bullish trend over a relatively long period of time.
PHASE E of a Distribution Schematic can be long and drawn out over a long period of time. Those are no fun for crypto. The last one we had was 2014. We're in Phase C of an Accumulation Schematic. Which offers a positive outlook for another long bullish trend with multiple waves of re-acccumulation and re-distribution.
WHY?
Because they are normally followed by multiple waves re-acumulation/re-distribution while moving up in a bullish trend over a relatively long period of time.
PHASE E of a Distribution Schematic can be long and drawn out over a long period of time. Those are no fun for crypto. The last one we had was 2014. We're in Phase C of an Accumulation Schematic. Which offers a positive outlook for another long bullish trend with multiple waves of re-acccumulation and re-distribution.
Comment:
Upside pressure "potentially" breaking down when looking at the 180m (3h) TF. The Phoenix ARI in the 360m (6h) TF looks like it "could" continue up. It has more room to go up but doesn't necessarily mean we must go up.
From the way the indicators are reacting from the current price action lately, it appears we will be going down very soon for either a Spring or a Test AFTER the Spring that may have already occurred. Time will tell:
From the way the indicators are reacting from the current price action lately, it appears we will be going down very soon for either a Spring or a Test AFTER the Spring that may have already occurred. Time will tell:
Comment:
Downside pressure still remains dominant in all three time frames (180m, 360m and 720m):
Comment:
1080m TF:
Note how the Red Line and Blue LSMA have both touched the Green Line "WHILE" the Green Line is moving down; indicating downside pressure will continue. Note the Stochastic RSI rolling over and Phoenix ARI remaining at 0.0% level.
1440m (Daily) TF:
Very mixed signal with the indicators in the Daily TF. When we see this many mixed signals with indicators in a time frame, it's best to look for more clear signals in those indicators in other time frames below and above the current one with mixed signals. The Blue LSMA appears to be heading back down towards the 20% level or lower before chance for reversal to the upside.
2-Day TF:
Stochastic RSI heading downside.
Phoenix ARI remains at 0.0% level with no clear attempt to rise from the ashes yet.
The Purple Ghost in Godmode appears to be heading down towards the 20% level or lower before chance for reversal to the upside.
Note how the Red Line and Blue LSMA have both touched the Green Line "WHILE" the Green Line is moving down; indicating downside pressure will continue. Note the Stochastic RSI rolling over and Phoenix ARI remaining at 0.0% level.
1440m (Daily) TF:
Very mixed signal with the indicators in the Daily TF. When we see this many mixed signals with indicators in a time frame, it's best to look for more clear signals in those indicators in other time frames below and above the current one with mixed signals. The Blue LSMA appears to be heading back down towards the 20% level or lower before chance for reversal to the upside.
2-Day TF:
Stochastic RSI heading downside.
Phoenix ARI remains at 0.0% level with no clear attempt to rise from the ashes yet.
The Purple Ghost in Godmode appears to be heading down towards the 20% level or lower before chance for reversal to the upside.
Comment:
Posting the 3-Day, 4-Day, 5-Day, 6-Day, 7-Day and 8-Day time frames for everyone to see what the indicators look like. I temporarily removed my drawings for easier viewing.
Here's the 3-Day, 4-Day and 5-Day:
Here's the 6-Day, 7-Day and 8-Day: Note how close the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI both are to bottoming out at the 0.0% level in all three (3) time frames.
Here's the 3-Day, 4-Day and 5-Day:
Here's the 6-Day, 7-Day and 8-Day: Note how close the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI both are to bottoming out at the 0.0% level in all three (3) time frames.
