VaidoVeek

BITCOIN - Super-Strong Support! Could We See a Small Bounce?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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First of all, I want to show the most important area on the chart. I have mentioned this before but again we are back to test this level. The current strongest area around the current price locates between $3,572-$3,588 (light-blue area below the image).

If we count current 4H candle touch then we have 20 rejection from this area, either direction - it has worked as strong resistance and as strong support level multiple times. So, 20 rejections and only two(!) times the price has managed to break through from it. From the bullish perspective, we have to be happy that we have so strong support level below the current price.

Back to the yesterday's action. The first bigger 4H candle breaks the major counter trendline and breaks below the EMA's (100&200). A possible movement downward was on my alert post JUST before it made the massive move. The counter trendline break was the ugliest scenario because if the counter trendline breaks then You already know - the trend is your friend and the second big 4H candle came quickly to the big bearish trend direction. The second 4H candle came pretty quickly...

...it smashed the smaller trendlines , smashed the short-term perfect FIB level and it changed the short-term market structure higher lows to the lower lows and it found the support from the prementioned super-strong area around $3,580 and also there is a perfect Fibonacci retracement level 62%!

What do I expect from the current situation?

As I said, we made breakouts from multiple strong support levels BUT we haven't retested those at all. Those price levels were strong ones and if the market wants to break those it needs strong power, it got a strong power but as I said on my previous posts: the market is like a human if it breaths in it also has to breath out. So, I expect that the market has to "breath out" to retest some of the strong levels above the current price.
First retest level would be the small trendlines crossing area just below the $3,800. I would like to see that the market makes a retest the counter trendline but I'm realistic and to find the buying power after panic selling is too much to ask but still I believe that the price makes some higher levels retest. Let's see what we get from the current situation, this is almost the last day to make a stronger move because as You know, the weekends are usually with low volume inside the candles and then it would be too much to ask to make some important moves!

After the major counter trendline break , my bias has changed from bullish into the bearish . So I would like to search some sell setups but currently, I believe the price make a small bounce upwards and the first target would be the smaller trendlines crossing area, so maybe from there would be a perfect sell setup but it depends on the price action, as always I try to keep You posted!

I would change my bias if the price reaches above the $4k and above the light-blue trendline just above the $4k (tiny dotted trendline since 1. April 2018). If we manage to go so high then this move was TOP 1 manipulation :) but time wise the change from bearish to bullish is far!

As You already know, we are above the super-strong area. IF the price starts to fall lower than the strong area (this drop would be quick because as You see on the image above we have only two candles managed to break through from this level and we can be almost certain that the third one would be exactly like those two - strong, long and full of bearish volume ) then be careful and 1H candle close confirmation below the $3,572 should be enough to confirm further bearish price action!!
SELL targets after 1H candle close confirmation:
- $3,400
- $3,310
- $3,220


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CHEERS!


*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!

Previous Analysis:
Comment: A little late discovery but there is also a pretty important trendline which crosses exactly with the super-strong area and it makes this area even stronger to breakthrough!

Please leave a comment about the feedback and hit the "LIKE" to support me to the TOP ;)

Comment: Be cautious!!
The price is currently on the Bear Flag with short-term higher highs and higher lows printed on the chart.
The breakout below the Bear Flag and below the blue area will release the next hell.
Currently, nothing remarkable but small signs from altcoins - they made a short pump in the morning but currently, most of them are starting to go today's minus side. So, no confirmation to either direction but as said be careful!

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Comment: I would like to name those price action criteria, why I think the price could make a bounce:
1. We have a rejection from the super strong area (light-blue zone between $3,572-$3,588)
2. We have a rejection from the trendline (fat black line)
3. We touched the FIB 62% retracement level and got a rejection from there(pulled from 15 Dec. to 24 Dec.)
4. 4H shows us RSI Divergence (orange line)

Those are the criteria but the suspicious thing is the time. The price has been too long on this area and often when the price stays too long into the strong support or resistance area it decreases the trade success rate.
The whole market is on the waiting mode and so as I!

Please support me to the TOP author's list, it is so close to me :)
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Comment: The movements are slow but we have collected some data from current level. The price have made a slow breakout from bullish chart pattern Ascending Triangle but we are still on the bearish pattern called Bear Flag! As You’re notices then here is a mess! Only certain thing is the strong support below the current price, if we fall lower from $3,550-$3,500 then we go sharply downwards!
All the best! Thank You for your support, we were very close to get into the Top analysts again but not now ;)
Have great weekend and cheers!
Comment: New BTC analysis!
Do not forget to DESTROY the "LIKE" button :D

Have a great weekend!
Cheers!
Super strong support huh?
Reply
New BTC analysis!
Do not forget to DESTROY the "LIKE" button :D

Have a great weekend!
Cheers!
Reply
be wary of the trend though.
+1 Reply
Thank you
Reply
@Smitbiz, You are welcome! ;)
Reply
@VaidoVeek - great charts and content. Keep up the work! It will be interesting to see if a bounce happens how BTC will react to that downward sloping trend line. The 50 DMA is right around that price area as well...
+2 Reply
VaidoVeek WolfpackCrypto
@bitcoinbobby, thank You very much for the feedback! I’ll try my best ;)
Reply
good words
+1 Reply
@nikkov, thank You sir.
Reply
nikkov VaidoVeek
@VaidoVeek, you are welcome, buddy
+1 Reply
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