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First of all, I want to show the most important area on the chart. I have mentioned this before but again we are back to test this level. The current strongest area around the current price locates between $3,572-$3,588 (light-blue area below the image).
If we count current 4H candle touch then we have 20 rejection from this area, either direction - it has worked as strong resistance and as strong multiple times. So, 20 rejections and only two(!) times the price has managed to break through from it. From the perspective, we have to be happy that we have so strong below the current price.
Back to the yesterday's action. The first bigger 4H candle breaks the major counter and breaks below the EMA's (100&200). A possible movement downward was on my alert post JUST before it made the massive move. The counter was the ugliest scenario because if the counter breaks then You already know - the trend is your friend and the second big 4H candle came quickly to the big direction. The second 4H candle came pretty quickly...
...it smashed the smaller , smashed the short-term perfect FIB level and it changed the short-term market structure higher lows to the lower lows and it found the support from the prementioned super-strong area around $3,580 and also there is a perfect level 62%!
What do I expect from the current situation?
As I said, we made breakouts from multiple strong support levels BUT we haven't retested those at all. Those price levels were strong ones and if the market wants to break those it needs strong power, it got a strong power but as I said on my previous posts: the market is like a human if it breaths in it also has to breath out. So, I expect that the market has to "breath out" to retest some of the strong levels above the current price.
First retest level would be the small crossing area just below the $3,800. I would like to see that the market makes a retest the counter but I'm realistic and to find the buying power after panic selling is too much to ask but still I believe that the price makes some higher levels retest. Let's see what we get from the current situation, this is almost the last day to make a stronger move because as You know, the weekends are usually with low inside the candles and then it would be too much to ask to make some important moves!
After the major counter , my bias has changed from into the . So I would like to search some sell setups but currently, I believe the price make a small bounce upwards and the first target would be the smaller crossing area, so maybe from there would be a perfect sell setup but it depends on the price action, as always I try to keep You posted!
I would change my bias if the price reaches above the $4k and above the light-blue just above the $4k (tiny dotted since 1. April 2018). If we manage to go so high then this move was TOP 1 manipulation :) but time wise the change from to is far!
As You already know, we are above the super-strong area. IF the price starts to fall lower than the strong area (this drop would be quick because as You see on the image above we have only two candles managed to break through from this level and we can be almost certain that the third one would be exactly like those two - strong, long and full of ) then be careful and 1H candle close confirmation below the $3,572 should be enough to confirm further price action!!
SELL targets after 1H candle close confirmation:
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*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
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The price is currently on the Bear Flag with short-term higher highs and higher lows printed on the chart.
The breakout below the Bear Flag and below the blue area will release the next hell.
Currently, nothing remarkable but small signs from altcoins - they made a short pump in the morning but currently, most of them are starting to go today's minus side. So, no confirmation to either direction but as said be careful!
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Thank You very much!
1. We have a rejection from the super strong area (light-blue zone between $3,572-$3,588)
2. We have a rejection from the trendline (fat black line)
3. We touched the FIB 62% retracement level and got a rejection from there(pulled from 15 Dec. to 24 Dec.)
4. 4H shows us RSI Divergence (orange line)
Those are the criteria but the suspicious thing is the time. The price has been too long on this area and often when the price stays too long into the strong support or resistance area it decreases the trade success rate.
The whole market is on the waiting mode and so as I!
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All the best! Thank You for your support, we were very close to get into the Top analysts again but not now ;)
Have great weekend and cheers!
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Have a great weekend!