VaidoVeek

BITCOIN - Very DANGEROUS!!!

VaidoVeek Updated   
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
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Since 18. December the price has been on the light-orange box just above the strong support area.
It has touched the box resistance line 5 times and got rejections from there and we have 3-4 touches on the box support level. This box is pure consolidation/sideways/ranging movement area and the accumulation has started, but where and who accumulate?

In this box, we have more bullish candles than bearish. So it could be mean this that big whales are "slowly" fill their sell orders - sharp bearish candle downwards means big orders, then they move away from the market, somehow the price slowly goes upwards (to the box resistance) and again big sell orders as it was Thursday. Do they really want to lower the price even more than the current bottom $3,100? Who are they, who are they - they are the big money, who moves the market and who wants to move it where they want.

From a technical perspective, we are still above the multiple mentioned super-strong area and yesterday we got a reversal indication candlestick pattern called Doji. One 4H candle gave us a manipulation candle which is like Spinning Bottom

So, both candlestick patterns are with reversal indications inside of them.

Beside candlestick pattern, we have also the Fibonacci level 62% and the trendline (those criteria was also in my previous analysis) and we have made a lower low but the candle close was still on the lower high area, plus we have a Double Bottom on the mentioned orange consolidation area support level which is also a bullish pattern but it gets a confirmation after a breakout!

From a technical perspective, we have actually pretty solid trading setup but the bounce from the current level has waited for almost too long. Remember, if the price stays into the good resistance or support too long (perfect would be a touch and rejection) area it lowers the trade success rate.

I don't recommend to trade at the moment. Yes, there is a massive Sell entry, if You see at least 1H candle close below the $3,570-$3,500 then it would be confirmed sell but this 1H candle may get a first close below the $3,500 around $3,200 because the volume after the break would be large.

SUMMARY: We are still on the perfect bounce area and technically we are good to go to retest the Thursday broken (counter trendlines and some smaller trendlines) level, altcoins are not so bad but it has been taken almost too much time to go higher from the light-blue area, from the $3,600. Some patterns here and there but nothing certain. My recommendation would be - stay away and wait for a confirmation (looks like I have a cross on the major image, this is like a sign :D). If we are lucky then we may catch Sell setup after the confirmation, BUT if the 1H candle close is JUST below the super strong area then it would be also a bear trap because I think if we start to go down then this happens quickly and sharply. I managed to discover the last drop from $4,000 by looking the 15 min. chart but can't promise anything today.



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*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!

Previous Analysis:


Comment:
We have actually a breakout from yesterday's Bear Flag which will be a small bearish sign:

If we look it from candle close perspective then pure accumulation.
This is a 15 min chart. and I think a breakout, breakout means a candle close, above or below the red box will give the short-term direction.
So the numbers:
- A 15 min. candle close above $3,659 will be a buy signal
- A 15 min. candle close below the $3,604 will be a sell indication.
Why buy is signal and why sell is indication?!
Sell is indication because the major support level is too close after the breakout and to trade so short-term moves are a mistake. Buy target is further and that's why we can trade buy after the breakout upwards!

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Comment:
NOW OR NEVER:
That was a fifth attempt to break below the blue support area but there are buyers and they push the price back up pretty quickly. On the 15 min. chart we got good rejection candle and it closed exactly above the prementioned confirmation level $3,604!
Actually, the hour has just started but let's see do we get a continuation momentum upwards after the rejection or not if we don't get that momentum then it is another confirmation that we go downwards because this is a perfect sport to go higher and if we don't go now then we don't go at all :)
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Comment:
The important hour or two has started!
Altcoins are actually in pretty good shape, reversal candlestick pattern Spinning Bottom is there and we have another rejection from $3,580!
As said, now or never :)
Comment:
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Comment:
Here is my new BTC post, trade with cautious because we are on the highly manipulated area:
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Cheers!

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