Shywado

The corridor is getting tighter BTCUSD

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In this basic and really simple kind of analysis, the downtrend and the uptrend line of BTCUSD meet in 9 days (22.7.2018.)
The MCAD lines meet in that same point.

From what we see now, the price stood in beween the 2 line not breaking the trend for over 3 and a half months. Ok, it crossed the line just slightly 2 weeks before, but the uptrend still exists and its a nice uptrend, watching the week chart.
Now that corridor is getting pretty tight.

In my opinion the price should go up. We touched the bottom few times. We shouldn't go lower just because that's the average price of mining 1 BTC in the world. Nobody invest 6300$ to get 1 BTC just to sell for 6000$. It's simple math.... 6000-6300= -300$
That means, people are losing money

If we go lower, than people misunderstood what BTC mining is all about. Coz u dont have to dig the bottom to get BTCs ... It's not the kind of mining like we do to dig out minerals and other stuff... :/
Bad joke...

If the price go lower, maybe people found some kind infinite free energy.. this could be even more exiting than watching btc price go up :)
another bad joke...

We'll see what happens.

Hodl tight!!!

Comments

thanks makes sense
Reply
why you think should the market care for mining costs? are these not two separate topics?
Reply
Shywado ChalifStorch
@ChalifStorch, That's sould be the key of the reason why 6000$ is the "bottom".

Let's say... if u own a fast food and it costs you 5$ of ingridients to make 1 hamburger, you can't sell it for anything less then 5$ coz u r lossing money. If you include taxes, rent, paying for workes, ads, etc, u have to add another 2$, so we are getting to a 7$ burger and u still didn't make money. Since u are in bussiness, u want to make some money... so you must add another 2-3$ to make some money.
So, ur burger now costs 9$

If u r a BTC miner, the worlds average cost of electricity to mine 1 BTC is around 6000$ (in Albania is much much less, in England is much much more). Ok, there are people in Iceland, Russia and other countrys who have access to geothermal offsprings and other fancy stuff so the are mining for much less, but even they invested a lot of money to buy and build infrasturcture to mine cryptos there... So let's say that the average cost of mining is around 5400$

To mine BTC u must have crypto miners. So let's say an average miner will use bitmains s9 with 14Th/s.
To mine 1 BTC per year, you have to have at least 4 s9 mining 24/7.
An s9 costs around 800$ + shipping.. so lets say 1000$ per miner, u need at least 4 of them, so 4000$ of equipment to mine 1 BTC in a year from now.

But people who are mining btc's started mining a year ago when asic miners were much more expencive with less hashrate.. ok, it wasn't this difficult to mine them

In the end it should be around 4000$ worth of equipment to mine 1 btc + the price of electricity.

THAT'S WHAT BTC IS REALLY WORTH


ps

I understand that there are people probably mining with industry level miners which are not aveble for average users and they are able to sell them for much less then average people, but still, the market is made for average people, so from this point of view it's hard to understand how it's possible that the price of BTC even got this low and who is selling it this low.
I understand that there is a lot of manipulation... but there are facts like the mining price and market analysis which is the only thing that we can count on. If this was missing, nobody would even think about investing into a blind market
+1 Reply
@Shywado, ok, but in the end, is it not the market that determines the value of an commodity? I am not bearish on btc, but still it is possible that for some reason or market whims prices go further down, then probably diffuculty would go down as well, so...
Reply
Shywado ChalifStorch
@ChalifStorch, it's true that the market determines the value of everything. U can get just as much money as someone is willing to pay.

But still, I wouldn't sell my burgers for less then I invested to make one just because people are not willing to pay 9-10$ for a burger. I would rather stop making them in this case and close my fast food bar.

In crypto world this is what is happening now. People are selling their BTC's (burgers) for the price the invested to mine 1 BTC. That's really not a good trade. If u invest that kind of money just to get few hundred bucks for 1 BTC, it would be a better investment to grow potatoes... yet, people are mining btc more and more.

People who bought BTC at 100$-1000$ sold their holdings in november, december and january. So there is a bunch of people holding their BTC's at >12000$ point. I'm almost sure non of them will sell it for less then 13000$.
Those (100$-1000$ buyers) who sold only half of their holdings at 18000$ price point, still wouldn't sell off their btc's coz they already made enough money... maybe only few are selling, so to be able to pay for gas for their lambos :)

I think we got to the point of a critical mass where too many people are holding and very few are willing to sell this low.
The hashrate is growing so there are more and more people mining...

The question is: "Why are they mining it if they'll have to sell it for less then they invested in it?"

I'm not an expert, but the chart says that it should be time for it to go up. I like to belive that.
+1 Reply
@Shywado, sounds reasonable
Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing Refer a friend House Rules Help Center Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Lightweight Charting Library Blog & News Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Refer a friend My Support Tickets Help Center Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out