Before investing in Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency, it is really important to understand the historical trend of BTC. Cryptocurrencies, which are very volatile, become easy to understand and invest when we know the trend of BTC.
FIRST BULL RUN - 2012
BTC's first bull run started somewhere in 2012 and resulted in a 36,000% surge in almost 2 years. If someone invested $100, he would have made $36,000 ($35,900 to be exact).
Really a massive increase! Right?
But after that, BTC crashed, losing 85% in value in almost a year. If someone invested at All Time High Price, he would have lost almost his entire investment. (15% remaining is inconsiderable unless you have patience to hold till next bull run).
SECOND BULL RUN - 2015
The second bull run started somewhere in 2015 and produced a massive but less than the previous run's gain of almost 9600%. Then BTC lost almost 82% again. The bullrun & pullback period remained similar as those of previous cycle.
THIRD BULL RUN - 2020
The third bull run started somewhere in 2020 and brought the holders a 1500% profit. Now BTC lost almost 74% again. The bullrun & Pullback periods have been compressed somewhat.
EXPECTED FOURTH BULL RUN
Now, as per the historical trend, the fourth bull run is coming.
How much price may rise?
If based on historical trend, it could be less than 1500%.
IMPORTANT CONCLUSIONS FROM HISTORICAL TREND
I would be happy to see your comments. They improve my own understanding.
FIRST BULL RUN - 2012
BTC's first bull run started somewhere in 2012 and resulted in a 36,000% surge in almost 2 years. If someone invested $100, he would have made $36,000 ($35,900 to be exact).
Really a massive increase! Right?
But after that, BTC crashed, losing 85% in value in almost a year. If someone invested at All Time High Price, he would have lost almost his entire investment. (15% remaining is inconsiderable unless you have patience to hold till next bull run).
SECOND BULL RUN - 2015
The second bull run started somewhere in 2015 and produced a massive but less than the previous run's gain of almost 9600%. Then BTC lost almost 82% again. The bullrun & pullback period remained similar as those of previous cycle.
THIRD BULL RUN - 2020
The third bull run started somewhere in 2020 and brought the holders a 1500% profit. Now BTC lost almost 74% again. The bullrun & Pullback periods have been compressed somewhat.
EXPECTED FOURTH BULL RUN
Now, as per the historical trend, the fourth bull run is coming.
How much price may rise?
If based on historical trend, it could be less than 1500%.
IMPORTANT CONCLUSIONS FROM HISTORICAL TREND
- BTC is devastating for those who invest during its All Time High and heavenly for those who invest during its bottom.
- Peaks & troughs of BTC become less steep with each cycle. Means gains are less in every subsequent cycle.
- BTC usually follows the general economic cycle and, just like the stock market, shows an inverse correlation with inflation. Investors who understand the rise and fall pattern of the stock market can easily understand the trend of BTC.
I would be happy to see your comments. They improve my own understanding.