Paul_Varcoe

Why we are finally happy to go long Bitcoin around here. LOGIC!

Long
Paul_Varcoe Premium Updated   
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
If you check out what me and my partner @Mayfair_Ventures have been saying for MONTHS, you will see that yesterday proved us right. If you are serious about trading, then take the time to actually read these posts and watch these streams, and you will learn a LOT.

Look at the Elliott Wave plot. We recognised the Big Blue 3 as the MONTHLY 3, leading us to expect a long and deep correction.

Way back in September we were saying that we expect a new ATH (weekly 5, monthly 3) but it would be weak: CORRECT

On the way down from the ATH we said it was targeting 35k, this was correct too, see:


When it got to 35K we saw only a 3-wave correction when 70%+ of such corrections should be zigzag and hence 5 waves, so there was more to it. This was finally proved yesterday.

So we expected a bounce from 35k then a drop. When it got to 45k on the bounce I published this, saying don't FOMO in. We had reached a resistance and logic was either calling for the 5 wave move = DOWN, or a 3 wave move with A already in = DOWN. Either way down. FOMO-ers got rekt.


When it got to 45k again I published this:


This was because there was a HUGE resistance at 48k , and the move up was not looking impulsive enough to be the real push for B. We say it as the 4th (upward) wave of the correction, labelled as D in orange. (people argue about how to label Elliott Wave but we don't care if it's labelled 4 or D or Y). I think I was $36 wrong with the prediction of the top at 48k .

I also looked in detail at the redistribution I could see playing out in my streams last week, using Wyckoff Theory:

https://www.tradingview.com/streams/hR1S0ClxzG/
https://www.tradingview.com/streams/5zG-I8ZehP/

These predicted this fall as it was starting.

Last week I published this:


All the so-called YouTube "gurus" had this chart, and all said if it broke out of the channel it was entering a downtrend. This is wrong. It HAS to break out in order to get to the monthly 4, so that it can panic retail into selling before the next big rise. This allows the big players to reload.

The gurus make retail traders panic and sell into the arms of the big players, they are part of the problem. They come in right on cue predicting a downtrend. :facepalm

So, to the point of this article. We think that probabilities favour that the White A is in or nearly in, and once this consolidation is complete without a further collapse, we think that probabilities favour a fast corrective move up to the White B. These are probabilities only and we can be wrong.

So, we are watching the consolidation, expecting a move up, and our bias has switch to long in this AREA. Remember, there's no point trying to pick a low. Go in in the right areas, go small, and add to the position when you get more confirmation.

The more evidence you gather, the more you pick high probability trades. If you really want maximum comfort, you should wait for the White C, which allows much more confirmation. @Mayfair_Ventures will do this I bet. He has more patience than the rest of us put together.

Good Luck and thanks for reading. I will update this as the consolidation continues.


Comment: Waiting for the AR to come in. Remember that we want to see the structure play out to get confirmation. We are only at the start:
Comment: The Secondary Test is quite high. This is (slight) evidence of buyers having more control but it is EARLY DAYS. Volume is low in the rally so expectation is another test of the downside next.

Comment: We want it to go back here


Sounds nuts I know but it's a good sign if it happens. Just wait. I'm not saying sell it,

though gun to my head I would sell not buy if I had to choose.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

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