BTCUSD : In spectator mode near the apex(projection in the text)
Hi guys,
I reviewed my last projection. The devil is in the details. Drawing resistance line can differ from our 2 past highs (see white circle). I was betting on a major 1-5 with sub 1-5. I spotted the 1-5 without asking the question about differential scenario which would have been a simple 1-5 without major pattern in or out.
We see these impulse 1-5 here on this picture having all the same 0 to 1 fibo ratio. So 0 to 1 = 1, 2 to 3 = 1 and 4 to 5 =1. Isometrical impulsive waves, no extended 3 or anything, simple pattern :
Right now, we have fully retraced from these impulsive waves and back to precedent price levels. I do not reject a retest at 6k but its not will look at
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Why im in spectator mode. You and me see a contracting price form going toward the apex. I always remember that bollinger rule that says in contracting price movement expect huge price fluctuation or simply look at elliot wave triangle pattern which implicitly say the same thing as bolllinger since triangle pattern are price contractions leading to bigger fluctuation (e.g. ABCDE then impulse).
(you are not forced to understand paragraph below)
Im looking at this bearish crossover of the 1D MACD which each time, since the correction 9 months ago, the end point of it stop higher than the precedent bearish crossover. Since MACD is kinda a binary state indicator, that mean a less deep bearish crossover end point de facto the other state (bullish crossover) is likely to happen at higher value than past one. That correlate with bollinger rule and compressive price triangle (ABCDE). The parallel of this would look like a phase 4 wyckoff accumulation cycle.
All of this to say that the behavior that will give a good upward price movement is if the MACD 1D respect the 9 month old behavior and stabilize higher (or less deep if you prefer) like each time before. Then that contraction would turn in a massive upward movement. On the other hand, if that MACD 1D bearish state (a.k.a. staying under signal) continue deeper and broke the behavior sequence, then this contraction of price is most likely to result in massive downward price
Like i said in the beginning the devil is in the details.. Thats why i love MACD so much as indicator, dont really predict futur but synthetize data in a way that allows us to position favorable for further move
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For the interested :
Bollinger rule traduction : The more the amplitude of the Bollinger band gap is narrowed in the channel representing the weak trend, the greater the upward or downward potential at the exit of the channel is important.
(bollinger use channel while elliot use trend line and letter, but both of them show us the same phenomenom but with different method)
__________
If you have question dont hesitate i will clarify. I cant use my french to make better explanation here but i can reformulate my english to help people that want to learn about the indicator i use.
I reviewed my last projection. The devil is in the details. Drawing resistance line can differ from our 2 past highs (see white circle). I was betting on a major 1-5 with sub 1-5. I spotted the 1-5 without asking the question about differential scenario which would have been a simple 1-5 without major pattern in or out.
We see these impulse 1-5 here on this picture having all the same 0 to 1 fibo ratio. So 0 to 1 = 1, 2 to 3 = 1 and 4 to 5 =1. Isometrical impulsive waves, no extended 3 or anything, simple pattern :
Right now, we have fully retraced from these impulsive waves and back to precedent price levels. I do not reject a retest at 6k but its not will look at
_____________________
Why im in spectator mode. You and me see a contracting price form going toward the apex. I always remember that bollinger rule that says in contracting price movement expect huge price fluctuation or simply look at elliot wave triangle pattern which implicitly say the same thing as bolllinger since triangle pattern are price contractions leading to bigger fluctuation (e.g. ABCDE then impulse).
(you are not forced to understand paragraph below)
Im looking at this bearish crossover of the 1D MACD which each time, since the correction 9 months ago, the end point of it stop higher than the precedent bearish crossover. Since MACD is kinda a binary state indicator, that mean a less deep bearish crossover end point de facto the other state (bullish crossover) is likely to happen at higher value than past one. That correlate with bollinger rule and compressive price triangle (ABCDE). The parallel of this would look like a phase 4 wyckoff accumulation cycle.
All of this to say that the behavior that will give a good upward price movement is if the MACD 1D respect the 9 month old behavior and stabilize higher (or less deep if you prefer) like each time before. Then that contraction would turn in a massive upward movement. On the other hand, if that MACD 1D bearish state (a.k.a. staying under signal) continue deeper and broke the behavior sequence, then this contraction of price is most likely to result in massive downward price
Like i said in the beginning the devil is in the details.. Thats why i love MACD so much as indicator, dont really predict futur but synthetize data in a way that allows us to position favorable for further move
____________
For the interested :
Bollinger rule traduction : The more the amplitude of the Bollinger band gap is narrowed in the channel representing the weak trend, the greater the upward or downward potential at the exit of the channel is important.
(bollinger use channel while elliot use trend line and letter, but both of them show us the same phenomenom but with different method)
__________
If you have question dont hesitate i will clarify. I cant use my french to make better explanation here but i can reformulate my english to help people that want to learn about the indicator i use.
Trade active:
back to how to interpret histogram. We see higher low, that enable an appreciation of a potential bullish crossover (still in the negative spectrum) if dynamic stay the same :
Comment:
Remember the first hypothesis : higher low bullish crossover is the trend. Contracting price make us expecting huge fluctuation since we are converging near the apex made of a major resistance and a major support.
Histogram shows higher low, if dynamic stay the same histogram help us to put higher probability of a bullish crossover in the negative spectrum. If this bullish crossover happen the crossover will happen at -100 which is near centerline. A succeding bullish crossover signal could converge toward centerline (remember that -100 to 0 is minimal to reach). Once there, MACD can crossover centerline and subsequently the signal leading to huge up in price. A failing attemp would create the opposite momentum a "failing to reach bullish state' indicate further decline in price
Histogram shows higher low, if dynamic stay the same histogram help us to put higher probability of a bullish crossover in the negative spectrum. If this bullish crossover happen the crossover will happen at -100 which is near centerline. A succeding bullish crossover signal could converge toward centerline (remember that -100 to 0 is minimal to reach). Once there, MACD can crossover centerline and subsequently the signal leading to huge up in price. A failing attemp would create the opposite momentum a "failing to reach bullish state' indicate further decline in price
Trade active:
So main scenario remain. Gave you good information to take very good position wether the direction. If you still struggle to understand how to extract info dont worry it takes time. I show you here a picture that worth thousand words of the bullish MACD crossover signal dynamic:
Trade active:
Still in the prosdy of the entire post. Negative Histogram continue to contract and make us expect a probable bullish crossover. In this regards i expect a test to 6.8k-7k. Still expectina pullback to 6.3k which happened to day but could consolidate there again before next pull up :
Comment:
just dont forget the bigger idea of the higher low bullish crossover, that i shared here, since the beginning of the correction :
A good read about how to use MACD-Histogram : stockcharts.com...school/doku.php?id=chart_s...
There is plently of good lecture on google !