PhilHumphreys

BTC, Traps set for both Bears and Bulls?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This idea gets invalidated very quickly if we lose the C position and go lower but I think traps are being laid for both bears and bulls with a bearish gartley potentially taking us up to 12200 areas hurting many bears on the way up before euphoric bulls get heavily dumped on all the way down to 8500.

As I said, this idea gets invalidated quickly but if we start to move up from here, keep it on your radar.

Good luck out there!
Trade closed: stop reached: Was a nice idea, didn't work, found out in 20 minutes which is always nice. Don't like to hold losers long.
Trade active: Giant wick, looks like a double bottom. gartley still working from closing price perspective, will wait for daily / weekly close to see how it goes (1 hour to go...)
Comment:
Comment: Long closed, will see if we can break 12200 - 12500 (would still work as a bearish BAT around there). Otherwise, opening a short
Comment: Extreme Low time frames starting to turning bearish, opening a cautious short as this could still be a pull back with more bull action ahead. Either way, so far, so good. Good luck everyone.
Comment: Short closed (break even) New short open at 12190 since target has been hit. Gartley and Bat invalid above 12500, bull run in continuation mode from there.
Otherwise bull trap plays out from here.
Comment: I feel I should probably give a quick update as this idea has gathered some attention over the last couple of days and I've gained quite a few a followers - appreciate all the kind words and thanks for stopping by.

Full disclosure: My short position from 12190 is still active, I've closed some of the position to raise my entry price so my break even price is slightly higher now, I always find that to be good practice when a move goes my way quickly.

Am I still bearish? Short term yes. As long as we do not get above 12500-12600, my short position will continue.

Long term (next year or later) I'm gunning for 80K bitcoin so a larger pullback here is simply an opportunity for me to acquire more bitcoin. If we go lower in the long run, I'll hold on to my short for as long as possible.

I do not give financial advice and am not qualified to do so (I've had some PMs this week asking), this is simply a trading idea that's worked out well (so far), plenty of places the downside idea could fail.

That said, if my idea is to succeed, it could take a little more patience to play out than the speed of the up move so stick around and see how it plays out.

I'll update again as soon if anything interesting develops from here.

Thanks,

Phil.
Comment: Short still active (some profit taken earlier today)
Comment: We have dropped below the wick of the hanging man, a daily close below it (around 11560) would confirm for me. Below 11100 I will remain bearish, a bounce there I would take more profits and move stop.
Comment: Current level holding, short still active, profitable stops in place if we do turn back up here but I'm still confident we'll see further downside first.
Comment: Closed some more of the short but my short position is still overall open, curious is we can recover 11200 from here or more lower in store.
Comment: Thought I should share the reason I closed more of my short.

Comment: Idea above already invalidated, short continues
Comment: About half way on short target, if 10k breaks I expect a quick move (up or down really) from there. End goal Short target lies between 9300 and 8500 but I'll keep it running as long as it's profitable. Tricky to take any trade from this point so those not in position I'd suggest practicing patience.
Comment: Very quick update as I'm on the move. From the move up to 12200 region to the current pullback we've started an 0.886 retracement. This puts the upside target at 0.5 (just above 10700). Daily, we've closed a bullish looking hammer but have not recovered over 50% of the previous daily candle's body. So there's a bullish and bearish argument there. Personally to switch back to bullish here I'd want to see Bitcoin get over the 0.5 fib and a daily continuation above yesterday's close to validate the bullish hammer. Otherwise I remain bearish. My short stop is above said targets. Good luck!
Comment: 0.5 Target hit and exceeded - 4 hour close above and currently holding as support, beginning to look like a change in behaviour. Bulk of my short already closed but if we continue moving up from here I will be closing the remaining part of my short. Sorry I've not replied to more comments below, been rather busy.

Any new thoughts?
+1 Reply
A harmonic must complete before its valid my friend.
Reply
Crypapi Crypapi
@Crypapi, Which it did in this matter, but once D is complete then you can trade for it
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this was beautiful
+1 Reply
GREAT INSIGHT, GREAT
Reply
Beautiful harmonic chart.

Im looking at this

Reply
so far so good :)
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