If you are unfamiliar with . Well, they call it the Theory. Hence, a THEORY. It has specific rules, and many times on TradingView there will be users posting counts that violate the laws or rules of the Theory. In this post, I believe all laws and rules of the Theory have been followed, and I am open to criticism to anyone who argue my count. However, I'm confident my count is correct.
Since Bitcoin bottomed out back in December of 2018, we started a 5-wave sequence upward, with standard corrections along the way. Technically, it is perfect:
We can also see that the height of this WAVE 1 structure EXCEEDED the height of the B LEG in our 2018 correction. This is technical perfection of a WAVE 1, exceeding the height of the B LEG from the 2018 correction and follows the rules of the Theory:
In , once a 1-2-3-4-5 wave has been completed, we perform an A-B-C correction back to the bottom of Wave 4. This would mean that Bitcoin is going to make a correction from here to around $7,700-$8,300:
After the completion of this correction, Bitcoin will start to go on a rampaging tear in full bull mode, taking us to $70,000-$80,000:
Now, there is something to pay very close attention to. Because, there is a big looming question out there...
WHAT ABOUT ALT COINS?!?!?!?!
Oh, those poor alt coins are just bleeding, aren't they? Well, there is a glimmer of hope for the alt coins. And there is a specific spot in the chart that tells us when the last major alt coin rally happened. And, it's right here:
The last time Bitcoin completed this structure, this is the exact location that the alt coins went on a tear. Bitcoin breaks above the previous bull market high, and alt coins start going out of control .
The last time, Bitcoin broke the previous high, and got rejected just above the high. Even then, alt coins still kept on ripping upward. Bitcoin recovered , and then really started to set new records. I expect the same.
So, where is Bitcoin going? Well, it's anyone's best guess. But here's mine...
And with that, I present to you, the big picture:
I wish you all the best of luck. Always remember, I am just a technical analyst. I have no control of what the markets really do. So, if you make a decision based on my analysis, it's your decision. I'm not telling you to do it, I'm just giving my thoughts. And my intention is to help you. (Not be responsible for you)
Good luck! Here's to a great 2019!!!!!
If we do break below that, I expect a lot of stop-losses to be triggered, and panic selling to set in, taking us to our $8500 target.
While we didn’t reach as deep down as expected, I did mention in an earlier comment that the bottom could be as high as $9,200.
We are still not in the clear. $8200 is still possible. But, if the total market cap breaks the 50 day with conviction, then the correction is likely over.
We broke out of the channel, touched the .786 retrace, and then broke back into the channel. A classic "bull trap". Shorts set their stops above the channel. People who wanted to buy the breakout of the channel set their buys on the breakout of the channel. Then, it collapsed back in. After hitting perfectly on the .786 retrace.
So, unclear right now. But typically, after hitting a .786, this is the completion of the retrace.
From here, we usually range for a while. Or, we go way down. Or, we break up. So, you have to kind of decide which direction you want to choose. It's all a guessing game right now. DO we break higher? Do we fall apart and break down? This is a place for risk management, and to make a decision on what you want to do.
I would suspect a second breakout of the channel would be bullish and it would likely hold. I doubt we could break out of it a second time and just collapse back in again. However, if we don't break out of it... watch out...
If Bitcoin goes above 70%, I am uncertain the alt coins will ever recover. However, at this point, it could mark the absolute bottom for them.
This could be the greatest buying opportunity on alt coins, in a lifetime... or, they are going to die. We will find out if Bitcoin Dominance reverses right now. If it goes above 70% on CoinMarketCap, I can't say with any reasonable analysis when the alts will reverse, if ever.
Otherwise, this is the bottom of the altcoin market, right now. Moon time.