Hi guys! hope you had a good day, after BTC's green, sick, breakout upwards! yes, the market was gloomy, but what did I tell you? If it does not bounce from daily oversold condition at 30, it is not bitcoin! it has never disappointed you, and it will not again from now on. As I told you, I had shorts at 6357, at yesterday's high! but reaching 6220 level yesterday, i checked the daily rsi, which was 29! oh no. i had this bad feeling that squeeze was coming! for most of the times with BTC, you have to follow the trend. go short when downturn, but! you need to be a CONTRARIAN, when indicators say "I'm going to run back to you!". After I sold my shorts at 6220, just in 10 minutes the market went crazy up, up! i have my longs still at 6180(another account), and holding. i will sell it when it gets over 66,67 levels(not so much money put in so do not care when).
however, you can see BTC shot up 400~500 dollars, but it seems now, little weak isn't it? yes, because it is facing another big resistance, you call that '4hour 21ema'. When BTC goes up, it faces its first hurdle, a giant one, and this is it! today, BTC sparked up to 6620, which is exactly where 4hr 21ema lies. yes shorters, this is a chance! now, just see how BTC will make a somewhat rising wedge, now, possibly a 'bull flag'. but this bull flag is not really a bull flag, because its RSI resistance levels are at 7100! that means this should shoot more than that, to break the bear trend! yes my friends, we are still in a bear market, nothing as changed, a bounce that is needed has only come.
so below is my investment plan.
now for short term, btc's below bottom will be put at 6450~6520. it will try to defend this level, which is bull's self esteem. it never goes down to the bottom at 62, or 61 in the same day even though it s a dead cat bounce. however, if it does not reaches over 6620 in short term, it will revisit 6400, 6450 zone once again, which is the below support level or even 6350(looks like as writing, it already have!) so observe BTC from now, try to buy high from 6550 at least all the way to 6620. but always be careful, it might break 21 ema, when it does it goes to next resistance at 6680, and 6730. I think BTC will play out from 6400~6630 zone for days(if not shooting up more), and eventually revisiting 64 zone. you can repeat this for time i think. also can switch to longs at 6400,~6450 and ride up(you can buy as low as 6330, but 6280 is stop!) i always use leverage 10~15, not more. to trade margin you have to remember this. buy long at support level, buy short at resistance level, do not buy when its going sideways! always enter when btc is moving with ACTION! again, this is my plan so you should make your own.
so this is my short term trade, so what would be the possible move of BTC in the following days?
i think btc will try to break above the 4hour ema, in the next days, week. it should try to break the neckline, after that, at 67, 68. so, when to enter shorts? when double top patterns form, and bearish divergence is confirmed 100% at 66~68, that is when to enter BIG. it might break the neckline though, if this makes a somewhat inverse HS pattern It can try 7200~7300. but, in downtrends, usually inverse HS is just a theory, but we must be careful always. so more money should be out at 71~73 for shorting, because this should come down. for now, daily has just made a move upwards and it is having a little retracement, but now levels are only 36 and i think it will try to come up try to break 40+@ resistance in the short term. so short term uptrend is not yet over(in a day????not yet folks). just play your short, and long game smart! have a good day!
Guys, you can leave questions or whatever in the comment below. you do not have to like, or follow me, i care nothing about that, i just enjoy sharing my opinions if that can help your investment.
however, you can see BTC shot up 400~500 dollars, but it seems now, little weak isn't it? yes, because it is facing another big resistance, you call that '4hour 21ema'. When BTC goes up, it faces its first hurdle, a giant one, and this is it! today, BTC sparked up to 6620, which is exactly where 4hr 21ema lies. yes shorters, this is a chance! now, just see how BTC will make a somewhat rising wedge, now, possibly a 'bull flag'. but this bull flag is not really a bull flag, because its RSI resistance levels are at 7100! that means this should shoot more than that, to break the bear trend! yes my friends, we are still in a bear market, nothing as changed, a bounce that is needed has only come.
so below is my investment plan.
now for short term, btc's below bottom will be put at 6450~6520. it will try to defend this level, which is bull's self esteem. it never goes down to the bottom at 62, or 61 in the same day even though it s a dead cat bounce. however, if it does not reaches over 6620 in short term, it will revisit 6400, 6450 zone once again, which is the below support level or even 6350(looks like as writing, it already have!) so observe BTC from now, try to buy high from 6550 at least all the way to 6620. but always be careful, it might break 21 ema, when it does it goes to next resistance at 6680, and 6730. I think BTC will play out from 6400~6630 zone for days(if not shooting up more), and eventually revisiting 64 zone. you can repeat this for time i think. also can switch to longs at 6400,~6450 and ride up(you can buy as low as 6330, but 6280 is stop!) i always use leverage 10~15, not more. to trade margin you have to remember this. buy long at support level, buy short at resistance level, do not buy when its going sideways! always enter when btc is moving with ACTION! again, this is my plan so you should make your own.
so this is my short term trade, so what would be the possible move of BTC in the following days?
i think btc will try to break above the 4hour ema, in the next days, week. it should try to break the neckline, after that, at 67, 68. so, when to enter shorts? when double top patterns form, and bearish divergence is confirmed 100% at 66~68, that is when to enter BIG. it might break the neckline though, if this makes a somewhat inverse HS pattern It can try 7200~7300. but, in downtrends, usually inverse HS is just a theory, but we must be careful always. so more money should be out at 71~73 for shorting, because this should come down. for now, daily has just made a move upwards and it is having a little retracement, but now levels are only 36 and i think it will try to come up try to break 40+@ resistance in the short term. so short term uptrend is not yet over(in a day????not yet folks). just play your short, and long game smart! have a good day!
Guys, you can leave questions or whatever in the comment below. you do not have to like, or follow me, i care nothing about that, i just enjoy sharing my opinions if that can help your investment.
Comment:
guys, if btc breaks down lower than 6350, and even 6280. my idea is invalidated and downtrend will resume. we can look for a double top pattern, but it might not make it so be careful! gosh, breakout and breakdown in one day? am i asking too much? hmm.
Comment:
guys if you have opened shorts, i think now at 6422 you can sell 40~50% of your portion. 1hr frame we can see somewhat hammer, but this downtrend has always deceived people with the candle patterns, so i think it can reach 63 or even 62 levels in next 12 hours if 64 do not hold. however, i do think btc will try to reach 65/66 levels again, considering still overbought indicators in daily. 1hr, 4hr tells bounce will come at 63.2/62.8 levels so you can open long there but, it might not bounce with conviction so fast! so trade safe!
Comment:
btc defending 64 support. now we can see few bullish hammers in low time frames. if it can defend this price and keep making higher highs in 64 zone, maybe a 65~66 leg up is possible in few hours. however because the indicators are bearish, i assume it will make another double top pattern, so open short positions from 6530~6620, with more positions higher and it might just lose it and go down below now support(6376) to lower. sell target is still 64, but maybe 6350 is possible then.
however, if it cannot go over 6470 and upper in few hours and price stuck here, it will come down quickly in next 8 hours. if 6376 is broken quickly open long positions from 6330 to 6280(also consider opening 6180~6200, considering daily time frames). if bottom does not reach 6180 under, i think it is still bullish short term, which daily close will keep making higher prices for some time.
however, if it cannot go over 6470 and upper in few hours and price stuck here, it will come down quickly in next 8 hours. if 6376 is broken quickly open long positions from 6330 to 6280(also consider opening 6180~6200, considering daily time frames). if bottom does not reach 6180 under, i think it is still bullish short term, which daily close will keep making higher prices for some time.
Comment:
it seems like 64 isn't going to hold well. also, you can see we are still in a downtrend tunnel, where this bollinger band in 4hr keeps banding down. i opened short positions quickly at 6470(after selling 6558 at 64 level). today's shoot could not even go above the baseline. there are hidden bear div on various indicators, and maybe, just maybe 6620 was the top. from the looks of it, it might be little dangerous not opening longs at 63 or even 62, you can scalp it but i am not sure it would hold so long. this downtrend might take us to 6080/5900 next week.
Comment:
guys, please don't believe ta's who say 'their is a bullish hammer in 15 minute, 30 minute, 1hour, 4hour...' in trading view. this is not a signal for bullishess only! especially when they say it in very low time frames it really is only for scalping, and in downtrends it DOES NOT WORK SO WELL! see big picture! daily RSI, VOLUME, MONEY FLOW, BOLLINGER BAND, HIGHER HIGHS, DIVERGENCES. then see weekly, monthly! Candle patterns are only a small factor!
Trade active:
guys look like our short party is coming at the last moment! i got in at 6500 firsthand. the former top was 6620, so we must open positions around that, and about 100~200 dollars above also.
open positions from 6500/6550/6600, and 6680, 6730, 6810.
we must think of possibility that it would not go higher than former top, and also the possibility of going higher than that.
best
open positions from 6500/6550/6600, and 6680, 6730, 6810.
we must think of possibility that it would not go higher than former top, and also the possibility of going higher than that.
best
Comment:
BOOM! We are seeing bitcoin 6520 at the top this time, retracing! again, i humbly would say this shorting strategy was successful! okay, so selling point can be 63 level again, however we must understand that level is already been put as short term bottom, so btc would want to test the real low levels now. you guys should look out for 62, and even 61 levels now. so if i would sell this i would safely take profit at 63 levels first, and sell next portion at 62 levels, and leave some like 10, 20% if it even goes 6.1 level. have a good one!
Comment:
Guys sell all your shorts at 6k level now. I sold mine at 6080 will not feel bad even it comes down. Go long is better now till 5750.
Comment:
going long, buy 6050~6080 level not so much amount, next 5950 little more, heavy on 5870, 5750 next level. target 6300/6500/6700.
Comment:
we are seeing a slight bull div on daily now, but it is not confirmed yet, and when candle closes at 6k zone, it will come down to 5k zone possible.
Comment:
ok, so if you have entered long positions look if it goes above 6.2k levels in the next 12 hours, if not, sell it wait for better confirm. daily oversold conditions could go worse to 25~28, i think it is now better to open long positions at former bottom 5.75~5.85 for short term relief bounce. for now DO NOT ENTER SHORT POSITION NOW OR UNDER 6.2, NEVER. wait for long(5.75), or short(above 6.5 level).
Comment:
if btc wants to retrace just like 9.9-.5.7 last time, i think, putting a significance at 6.7~6.8 level is not so important. now i think 6.5~6.6 may be a somewhat good shorting, short term high point. yesterday it made a head and shoulder pattern but broke down. i will update, but it might be making an inverse hs, and we are still at left shoulder somewhere, too early to say though.
Trade closed: target reached:
And yes short position target is reached at 6k level!all sold for now.