Hi guys! after boring consolidation of BTC, it is showing little strength. yesterday i went long at 6400, sold that at 6530. btc is trying again 65/65.5 levels, but from the looks of it, it needs to retest bottom levels more, and try this upwards in coming hours, or even days.
so let's get right on to it!
so 1hour chart has a thick ichimoku cloud in front of BTC.normally in downtrends, BTC will retrace a bit, maybe to 64 levels
at the most. however it can just soar up to 67 zone from 64.7~8 from now, that is also highly possible, who knows. but usually btc cannot stand the confluence. also, there are some bear divergence on volume and rsi frames, so i guess btc could drop to the bottom of the wedge, around 6400 and try its journey again.
a little problem we have is that yesterday's 6880 hit made the rsi numbers too high, which is giving btc a burden. you see, if btc wants to go over that number and be healthy, it needs to make a higher number on rsi with higher price. if it makes a higher price but low rsi, that is not good, if it makes a lower price with high/similar rsi it also indicates bear div. so this upward move, the top should really be 67/68, or 69~70 at the most.
however, i believe it will go up. after the ETF disapproval and sideways action, it has slowly gained power! as it spurted to 65zone hours ago, it finally landed above the daily bollinger band baseline!!! this is a sign of bullishness in such downtrend, we have mostly
closed the candles below the baseline, but now, yes, it is bullish for some fact!
remember last time it landed on 4hr baseline? i guess that was before our first try to 65 zone. yes, we had a spurt up which was good! now in a daily basis, that makes things more bullish for next week! just see how btc reacted to this play back in july. you see there was an upward movement to 68zone. so, this is finally some bullishness, after so many times of pulling the moving average south in favor of the bulls.
so the top number for daily bollinger band top line is around 6900/7000, and one level down is is 66.8/67.2 level. so 69, 70? we need to see but 66.8~67.2, with possibility of at least 50~60%? i think will happen, earliest today or weekend, but latest next week!
the bollinger band is still trending south, moving averages still a resistance, but! what is good for longs is that
short positions are way too high! that means in mid/long term we are still in a downtrend, but, squeeze is definitely needed! i think
that is why 62/63 level is so well defended, and this upward/downward movement seems like it will never end. so this will end when btc finally retests high level. so, after a small retracement, or maybe big, it should retest up levels.
so now, i am scalping, opened short position at 6530, i will close this shortly, and try to find a spot for long. in mid/long term still, short accumulation is valid. only thing is that i think from now, you do not have to buy 65 levels from now for the mid/long term short trade.
so simple trading plans are:
1.open longs
64.5~8/63.8~64.2/6300/6250
stop:6200
->i cannot judge where it can dip lowest, but early 64 can be possible, maybe 63.8~9 could too. however, we have 21/50 ema 4hr supporting the price strongly, so i think early~mid 64 level can be a first entry. followed by bottom levels.
so buy like small portions
64.5/64.2/63.8/if 63.8 breaks most likely go to 62 levels so prepare an order there.
target:6640/6680/6730
2.open shorts
-do not open 65 levels. open from high 66 level to 68. if we reach that level, there should be a sign, whether this is the top price or not. i will update. plan is accumulate to 7.1k laddering up(mid/short term)
have good trading! and leave any comments or questions,messages i can answer!
so let's get right on to it!
so 1hour chart has a thick ichimoku cloud in front of BTC.normally in downtrends, BTC will retrace a bit, maybe to 64 levels
at the most. however it can just soar up to 67 zone from 64.7~8 from now, that is also highly possible, who knows. but usually btc cannot stand the confluence. also, there are some bear divergence on volume and rsi frames, so i guess btc could drop to the bottom of the wedge, around 6400 and try its journey again.
a little problem we have is that yesterday's 6880 hit made the rsi numbers too high, which is giving btc a burden. you see, if btc wants to go over that number and be healthy, it needs to make a higher number on rsi with higher price. if it makes a higher price but low rsi, that is not good, if it makes a lower price with high/similar rsi it also indicates bear div. so this upward move, the top should really be 67/68, or 69~70 at the most.
however, i believe it will go up. after the ETF disapproval and sideways action, it has slowly gained power! as it spurted to 65zone hours ago, it finally landed above the daily bollinger band baseline!!! this is a sign of bullishness in such downtrend, we have mostly
closed the candles below the baseline, but now, yes, it is bullish for some fact!
remember last time it landed on 4hr baseline? i guess that was before our first try to 65 zone. yes, we had a spurt up which was good! now in a daily basis, that makes things more bullish for next week! just see how btc reacted to this play back in july. you see there was an upward movement to 68zone. so, this is finally some bullishness, after so many times of pulling the moving average south in favor of the bulls.
so the top number for daily bollinger band top line is around 6900/7000, and one level down is is 66.8/67.2 level. so 69, 70? we need to see but 66.8~67.2, with possibility of at least 50~60%? i think will happen, earliest today or weekend, but latest next week!
the bollinger band is still trending south, moving averages still a resistance, but! what is good for longs is that
short positions are way too high! that means in mid/long term we are still in a downtrend, but, squeeze is definitely needed! i think
that is why 62/63 level is so well defended, and this upward/downward movement seems like it will never end. so this will end when btc finally retests high level. so, after a small retracement, or maybe big, it should retest up levels.
so now, i am scalping, opened short position at 6530, i will close this shortly, and try to find a spot for long. in mid/long term still, short accumulation is valid. only thing is that i think from now, you do not have to buy 65 levels from now for the mid/long term short trade.
so simple trading plans are:
1.open longs
64.5~8/63.8~64.2/6300/6250
stop:6200
->i cannot judge where it can dip lowest, but early 64 can be possible, maybe 63.8~9 could too. however, we have 21/50 ema 4hr supporting the price strongly, so i think early~mid 64 level can be a first entry. followed by bottom levels.
so buy like small portions
64.5/64.2/63.8/if 63.8 breaks most likely go to 62 levels so prepare an order there.
target:6640/6680/6730
2.open shorts
-do not open 65 levels. open from high 66 level to 68. if we reach that level, there should be a sign, whether this is the top price or not. i will update. plan is accumulate to 7.1k laddering up(mid/short term)
have good trading! and leave any comments or questions,messages i can answer!
Comment:
guys, my scalping scenario! for your reference~ i think 66.4 and above, can come today, but it needs some energy i think to break resistance above. so lower high is possible!
Trade active:
guys my short scalping trade is active, i got in at 6535, plan to add 6555, stoploss is 6580. if goes up, i will open short at 6680/67 to compensate the loss! its dangerous so be careful~
Trade closed manually:
Bulls are strong,they keep price in the wedge whenever they want to fall down so there could be a breakout. Plan changed. Short at 66.8~67level or go long at pullbacks.
Comment:
Looks like i should have just kept my shorts! Anyway if it dips guys put some buy orders i guess around 63.6~8/6307 levels or even 6260 level. 64 levels i do not think you have to hush in and buy,we could have time for that.stoploss is 6200.
Comment:
Oh. It made a run. Anyway my first initial entry poimt was touched.market is hard to judge where it would go. Even in overbought situations it run. So mid term short entry was reached,i bought more.
Comment:
Guys i think you can buy the btc dip. 65.5 should hold. Buy some maybe it can drop to 64.5 and under buy more. Once buying put sell orders at 6730 6750. I think it will revisit upper levels.