Bitcoin Bullish

People seem to think I have had a negative view of Bitcoin, when actually it's quite the opposite. For one Bitcoin has been very, very kind to me. My first buy was in 2011. So first, let's get one thing straight - the desire for this to go long is there for me!

But and it's a big Caveat I have been a professional trader for over 23 years.

This side of me knows all too well what is needed for markets to move. Throwing words like BlackRock, Halving or ETF doesn't carry a lot of weight in the real world! Being sensible, for Bitcoin to be up sustainably it needs cause that creates the effect.

Over the last couple of years I have mapped out "EVERY" major swing.

Seeing the sentiment in the events I was attending as a money manager, you could see the interest - let's say the curiosity more than the intent. This was back as far as 2017, as we started to watch the transition to institutional involvement on the run up to the first major 64K high.

The fact it was this obvious, showed the intent going forward.

As we had the next moves the rise to the current ATH and of course all the way back to 15k, the obvious move is a much, much larger accumulation.


Yes I have covered this as well - at the time of publishing the book, The price was at it's ST - what do we need? well a move up of course. The assumption was we would rally as high as $32,000 region.

During the rally up, Blackrock news came out and on pure HOPIUM the price rallied to $38,000; this caused retail to jump on the "Up only Bandwagon" but before you click off as it's not all rosy and bullish, take a look through the microscope.

I explained the dangers of the fake run on liquidity

What a surprise - well, maybe not...

So, keep in mind. Cause and effect - the cause = giant accumulation, the effect equals up. But again, this does not mean up in a straight line. I am being honest and realistic here guys. These moves do not effect me, I sold out at the high and happy to buy confirmation not hype.

Take a look at the COT data..

On the left is Asset Managers and they are buying long term positions. NICE! Up, only!

On the right we have Leveraged Funds - these guys in essence make money trading against retail. (more to this than that). The issue I have is these guys are net short, which means as retail is soaking up the price on low volume, larger players are willing to sell to them.

Here's a couple of snapshots.
Daily

Weekly

Monthly
the monthly pullback is only .382 (swing high to low)

This has caused CVD divergence.

Drop down back to the daily.

More points for you to think about.

So I will ask again, what exactly is the Bullish cause here? Blackrock throwing $15Trillion to make all retail traders rich isn't the correct answer. Blackrock will not be retail bag holders.

Here's some 'real info' from Blackrock's own site.

$3 Trillion covering all ETF's since 1993 - another point, there are currently over 1,400 ETF's.

If you don't think we need a pullback, if you think it's just going to grind up on low volume, or if you think Blackrock will make you rich. There's a few home truths here.

Know what's coming and you can profit from it as well as manage expectations and emotions.

This book got published in May this year.

The blueprint is there! it's clear and setup nicely.

Would I short it, no I never short Bitcoin only sell my long positions. Would I buy more here, NOPE.

Take it easy guys and just apply a little sense.


Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.