Bitcoin Bearish Posture And Potential Break Down Or Out Points

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
It seems to me that we are in a bearish descending pennant similar to what we experienced between 20-6K with it bouncing from 6K then retesting 12-13K and rinse and repeat. Nothing about these moves are anywhere bearish , But it does not mean that we can't and nice 15-50% rallies in between. This is the part of trading that separate the boys from the men. JUst when you think that you are on to the direction and know where the market will be going, it will do the exact opposite, This market is not supposed to be predictable, There are people that know exactly what you are planning to do in each situation. Alot of traders experience the situation where they get lured into the thought of a market continuing and moving up and it ends up crashing back down, same thing when it feels like it wont stop and keep dropping it ramps up for a nice rally that you wished you'd be a part of. The only way you can be successful is to protect your capital, and mitigate your risk, once your risk rewards are properly planned out you really can't go wrong. The rest is history, There will be trades after trades that present themselves to you and you shouldn't just jump on everyone. I always say to be patient and let the market resolve itself, Usually after a rally it takes some time for it to topple out and then start moving to the downside. This is why you dont wan't to start trying to call each top, give the market some time to exhaust itself and then start considering getting into a good structured setup and plan.

No one knows where the price of bitcoin will go. A few weeks ago when we were shooting down to the lows everyone would have told you that they think its going to go lower. Now everyone is screaming for higher prices. Its total insanity. Stop listening to the noise, If you think that the price action is fair you can buy with reasonable stop losses and reasonable targets. Dont get greedy, dont get scared, dont get over-leveraged. Just be smart!

What I see in the next couple of weeks/months is that if we end up breaking up and away which at this point I would probably say its 30-40% likely that we do. We would easily reach up to $4200-4,500-4,800-5,200-6000. Anything above $5,000 is very close to being "end of the bear market" pricing, since we will be so far from the lows that it will be safe to say that even if we drop below $5,000 people will lose their minds to buy those prices up. But unfortunately I think that we are way to early to start retesting $5K and would rank the downside continuation at a 60%+ probability. This market will not be forgiving, and will make people enter positions to then lock them and pull them under, people still write targets for insane shit coins which leads me to believe we are far from over selling off. These moves in between are temporary spikes that if traded properly can be very profitable. I mean c'mon eth did 50%+ in a few weeks, Who is complaining, Not me thats for sure!

So to bring this write up to a conclusion, when in a trend you must trust that trend and follow that trend the trend is down, this goes until the trend ends and the last seller has sold, To me this does not seem like its anywhere close to being over, My realistic target is $2300. It can potentially drop down to the low $1,200's (85% chance) on the last push down this is worse case scenario and probably 15% likely. I would not be surprised to see the prices down at those levels. People are on some real life hopium if they think we are reversing here. So lets keep on trucking, and make sure you don't lose your pants :)

Best of luck, Dont forget to like and share!
Comment: the 80% on the chart is a breakdown point which is 80% of the triangle. Just FYI
Comment: If market breaks above $4,100 all short trades should be closed until the next point of resistance between $4200-4300 on BITFINEX. If the market pulls back we will have support at around $3800 which should send us back into the $4,000 level. both options totally viable and should be played as you see fit.


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