Predictive Analysis of the Next Megabull Cycle - Update 2

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hey all, I have been pretty busy lately and found the time to give you all an update! After visiting $445 we revisited the bottom of the triangle at $400-405 which strongly held as no sellers were to be found to take us to $320. Bears failed and Bulls won that last round. Which leads us to a big potential for the megabull cycle to occur on March 25-27th as we make our way to $435 (top of triangle).


After rearranging the fractal and aligning it properly with our current triangle we can see that were spot on the last pump within the triangle before we break out of the triangle. Initial top of triangle is $435 on Bitfinex and if all goes to plan we will blow past it to $450-448 then go back down to retest $426-421 before the megabull picks up steam and moons.

From there we have several potential targets but the fractal goes to $8100 per BTC which I find exaggerated.

My more conservative targets are: $680-700 and $900-850 and $1500 and $2500

For now the bears do not have a case in my opinion as $400 held as support and we had no new lows. However, note that if March 27th passes (give it to March 31st max) and we fail to break the top of the triangle ($435) and reach $450, then it is highly likely that the megabull cycle failed again and bears will take over. If I see a change I will first post on my twitter account and then follow up with a new chart when I have time on TV.

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Trade active: One of my most accurate Bitcoin prediction so far, we just had a breakout today on March 27. The megabull is ON! (see graph comments above for more info on what's next after this breakout)

Comment: Bull weakness showing up in the very important date timeframe from March 27th to March 31st which I spoke about earlier, notice how instead of curling up like in the old fractal were curving down again as we did back in January where after my vertical red line, we curved down and dropped $100. Comparing both attempt, they are very similar as we had back in January 2016 attempt several bulltraps where the Market Maker loaded shorts before dropping $100 down to $350.

If by March 31st we keep curving down and doing bull traps, bears will drop this down to $327-320 if not lower. Unfortunately bulls are running out of time. Please be careful using leverage right now is not a good time unless your long from $350-380 still.

Best strategy right now is to wait and see if we are able to go above $430 by March 31st before taking any position at this point.

Comment: Bitcoin back above the $415 resistance after settlement night on Thursday March 31st passed without any bear insight on all exchanges. I am happy to say that the most bearish scenario (dump of $320) is now out of the picture.

I see only two bullish scenario possible at this moment:

(A) We complete the big yellow triangle in April and Bitcoin does not take any direction by staying in sideways or congestion above $400 until May 2016

(B) The Megabull will still occur but delayed: But Bitcoin needs additional accumulation/consolidate time outside the initial 36 days consolidate range as this triangle is way bigger than the 2010-2013 mini triangles.
Comment: If you follow me on twitter as well i tweeted few hours ago about the potential mini break out we just saw o 2750cny or $424.

The call was spot on and I even stated that Bitcoin will pump and most likely ETH will be heading down and I see ETH starting a bear market while Bitcoin slowly curls up for a breakout towards $450 and then the megabull.

So we are indeed seeing scenario B which is a delayed megabull that should get to $450 within the next 2 weeks. It will be boring as a crawl up but we will get there once the fomo sets in and all the bears convert to bulls!

I will publish a new updated chart soon. Happy and safe trading :)
Trade closed: stop reached: Megabull cancelled guys.
Triangle broke down to the downside.
Please be patient and do not try to buy the dip for now until the bigger picture develops

Next targets 375, 320-315, 26-275

Comment: you got to love the manipulation seeing the Market Maker dump all the cryptos / ALTS last night (fortunately i do not trade or hold any of them). Where did all the alts profits go? Well evidently all the profits made by those pumps n dumps were cashed directly to Bitcoin as we had a full retrace to 2730cny from that dump that reached first line of support at 2650cny (on Friday April 8th).

This move from ATLS to BTC marks the preparation of the big Bitcoin move. I am expecting this move this week of April 11. I will leave it to the below 2 charts for bull and bear scenarios for now- happy trading:

Comment: Megabull confirms after we break 2800cny or $435
Trade active: Confirmed breakout out of the big triangle!
Trade active:
Comment: new chart incoming soon!
Comment: New Chart available:
Comment: New Chart Published:

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I don't buy into this 'triangle' thesis honestly.

Yes, it's a triangle, but the monthly chart is pretty clear.
BitcoinGuru IvanLabrie
that's fine Ivan in any case that's what the past 3 megabull cycles based on. All this chart is showing is that this pattern failed at this point and according to it the bears could take over as they are now or we could also go into congestion/sideways after breaking the triangle.

Using "daily" time node right now we are in a 21 days cycle in which bulls failed to break up. imo the market chose the direction it wants to go at this point and its down. Nothing fully conclusive though, we still have few days ahead and things could still change.

What's your view you are still bullish on the monthly?
IvanLabrie BitcoinGuru
I don't know what time/node is.
If you are talking about time at mode, you have a misconception about it.

The monthly shows a triangle, but we're at a 14 month level, around 2660 in okcoin and btcchina.
I don't see a reason to be bearish on it honestly.

152 days have past, where price was range boung, in a tighter and tighter range.
BitcoinGuru IvanLabrie
i understand but Time at Node on Monthly can lag behind and you wont see the failure until much later when its too late. That's why it is better to flip to the daily. yes correct the mode at 2660cny is still holding "for now". good luck in your trade!
IvanLabrie BitcoinGuru
I'm not too interested in trading this market now.
I am holding btc though, for long term.
Simply way more profitable ventures out there.
BitcoinGuru IvanLabrie
cool. i sold my Bitcoin cold storage and waiting to see if we get back above $420 to rebuy it in, i dont like to wait and hope with bitcoin. anyways ttyl! :)
IvanLabrie BitcoinGuru
if this happens i'll tip you 1 BTC at the pinnacle.
+4 Reply
BitcoinGuru coinwatcher
np it will be clear in few days if it is at play or not. thank you
rbarnes1337 coinwatcher
One thing I can tell you in support of this analysis, is that November 3rd marked the highest price ($504), and one of the highest energy days of 2015. 144 bars forward is March 26th, one day prior to his target; 144 being a common Fibonacci number to watch. Elix, I'm curious how you arrived at the March 27 date. Was it just the end of the triangle, or?
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