VaidoVeek

BITCOIN - Is It Possible To Catch SpaceX?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Now, more than four days, the Bitcoin price has danced around the first strong price level between the mentioned super-strong resistance at $5,777-$6,106. Those orange lines mark three Monthly lows from 2018: June, February and August.
Yesterday the price reached almost to the $6,000 but it didn't get a close above the August low at $5,900. Five(!) rejections from the mentioned resistance and the day got an end below the all of those marked Monthly lows plus below the Fibonacci 62% retracement level:

As you see on the Daily timeframe yesterday's candle close gave us a bearish candlestick pattern called "Shooting Stars". It got a rejection from the all three Monthly lows which now has become resistances and rejection from the Fibo level which is pulled from the 2018 September high (~$7,400) to the 2018 low (~$3,125) point.
This Fibo level and those resistances have worked four times on the Daily chart - four attempts to go higher has failed, let's see what we gonna get from today's price action but looks like bulls are still trying to push the price up. Yesterday's bearish candlestick pattern was a slight indication that bears are starting to come in but slowly, slowly.

Let's count a bit more subjective price action criteria than those Monthly resistances and Fibo level which should make the area around $5,900 even stronger than it looks like.

Let's start from the ABC Equal waves.
A little bit complicated but try to stay with me - after the rally at the beginning of the April, the BTC price made a slight throwback and the ABC waves count would start from there, from 4. April low. Slowly climbing to point A on 23. April high, another throwback and there is point B. Now, equal waves are pretty nice price action criteria which will end some movements and corrections. Currently, the waves from point 0 to A and from point B to C are equal, both lengths are $877, and the C point is exactly on the well-known resistance area around the $5,900. So, another criterion which will be an indication that the area is strong and the correction may start soon.

The well-known ascending channel .
Channel upper trendline has worked several times as resistance and so as now. This trendline runs through the $5,900. Yesterday, the price made a slight breakout from it but the Daily candle still got a close inside of it. So, another criterion which makes this area stronger.

All criteria together:
1. Three last years Monthly lows have worked nicely as resistance levels
2. Multiple times worked ascending channel upper trendline runs through the $5,900 which should work as a resistance.
3. ABC Equal waves counting ends around the $5,900
4. Fibonacci retracement level 62% have worked nicely as resistance, especially on the Daily timeframe .
5. A bit sloppy Fibonacci extension 161% is around the $5,900.
6. And yesterday, the Bitcoin price touched those all criteria, got a rejection and this rejection and the day ends with a bearish candlestick pattern called "Shooting Star"

Yes, pretty decent price action criteria but as they say, it is hard to catch a falling knife and currently, it is hard to catch a SpaceX. Actually, to me, there are no other options because of the strong resistance, it is just SO close to the current price. Obviously, the market is on the heavy bullish mode but the resistance, just above us, is also heavy as hell. So, actually, again, it looks like a pretty decent sell setup considering that area and considering that Daily bearish candle (To make a bit more confirmed sell then there is a red line. After the red line break the sell is triggered and probably a bit more secure!) but still, it is a little bit hesitating because of the current consistency. Consistency has a magic power on the crypto world and this magic power could easily drive the price above those orange lines, above the heavy resistance which should end above the $6,106!

Oh, almost forgot, there is a gray area and there is a slightly darker gray area. The darker area is a stronger area than the others around that because of the multiple rejections to either direction and because of the strong candles breakthroughs. So, currently, we have 30 min to go to another 4H candle close, if it gets a close above the darker area, then this could be a sign that bulls just do not give up but if it falls lower than the darker area then it should be more bearish , just a slight and tiny indications to add into your analysis.


Hopefully You enjoyed the post, feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!

Have a nice day,
Cheers!


*This information is not a recommendation to go "LONG" or "SHORT", it is mostly used for educational purposes only!
Comment: Currently, the price is still on the darker area without any bigger rejections. Bulls are still holding pretty easily that price around the strong area so, let's see. A candle close above the $5,900 should trigger the next movement upwards and a candle close below $5,775 should be a slight bearish indication to the downwards. Let's wait for those confirmations from the 4H chart!
Comment: The yesterday's confirmation area was correct, we got a candle close above the $5,900 and the price has climbed to the higher levels. Currently, it has reached almost to the $6,100 but do You remember the gray area between $5,777-$6,106 a few posts ago:

The price is still in this gray area, yes, it has climbed upwards, it has cracked a resistance after resistance but still on the gray area.
Altcoins are moved very slowly, which is a weird sign because the whole market does not get pumped, looks like only BTC. There is a price divergence compared with the RSI indicator, there is a BTC price and altcoins price divergence.
DLavrov: "The market looks overbought - it's fact. The price is at the strong resistance zone - it's a fact. It's time for the correction movement and the market will do it. It's just the question of time."
Comment: New BTC analysis:

Feel free to hit the "LIKE"!
Thank You!
so if 6106 breaks? going on without a correction? what would be wird
Reply
The ratio of BTCUSD shorts vs longs on Bitfinex has hit 1.7 ... it has never been this high from 2017 until now (previous peak was 1.5) When it was 1.2, there was a short squeeze that moved the price +$1000 in one hour.

We could see a short squeeze again.

Reply
we need more buyers to take it higher
Reply
Thanks bro!
+1 Reply
Fantastic write up, as always!
+1 Reply
VaidoVeek Moon_Rocket_Capital
@Moon_Rocket_Capital, thank you, hopefully, it was helpful!
Cheers!
Reply
That’s some random fib levels for a C wave
Reply
VaidoVeek davidred
@davidred, "Let's count a bit more subjective price action criteria..."
Reply
Vaido, thanks for the explanation, little by little we learn more :)
+1 Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Help Center Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing TradingView Coins My Support Tickets Help Center Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out