Analyzing the chart of BTC/USD hasn't been the easiest thing to do. But I have finally found a count that does actually make a lot of sense, not only with BTC but also with the general stock market. Basically, I think that BTC should rise the coming 1 or 2 months and after fall to make a last new low.
TA:
I think the problem is that many ewt traders counted the top of the 14th of April 2021 as the top of wave (3), myself included. The problem is that it would make the first leg down as a 5 waves move which can't happen because the next leg, the B wave, retraced more than 100% of it. So it has to be a 3 waves down for wave A making the entire ABC move an extended flat* or a complex correction as WXY**. This means that the top of the 14th of April 2021 is instead a wave of A also making wave A an extended flat itself.
The wave B that followed looks like a simple zigzag*** where the wave is almost as large as wave . This is good as the formation of B should not be the same as wave A.
The wave C (where we are now) looks to having been developing in 3 waves sequences. My idea is that it is forming an ending diagonal which is a 5 waves pattern with 3 waves sequences for each wave.
Could it also reverse from now instead making the entire wave (4) as a complex correction instead? Yes, but I don't think so as it is very unsual for wave X to retrace more than 100% of wave W and if there is 2 options between a flat and a complex correction, then the flat should be prioritized. Furthermore, the volume at the bottom is quite large indicating that it should make one last low with a smaller volume giving a bullish divergence.
The target for wave C and the end of wave (4) is 22 134 $ which is the 38.2% fib retracement of wave (3), a very normal fib target for the 4th wave of an impulse.
After this low we should go for new all time highs! :)
* An extended flat: is a 3 waves move with the second leg ending a bit higher than the start of the first leg. The first and the second legs can be developed into 3 waves sequences whereas the third leg should develope into a 5 waves sequence.
** A complex correction as WXY: A complex correction corrects in 3 waves, all of them also being 3 waves formations.
*** Zigzag: A 3 waves move where the first and the third leg are themselves 5 waves impulses separated with the middle leg which is a 3 waves correction.
FA:
The Tether story has been scaring a lot if investors lately. So much that it's actually in extreme fear at the moment which led to this recent sell off. I absolutely believe in that Tether is making money out of thin air to push up the price of BTC and other crypto coins BUT I just don't think they will get sued or stoped yet. The price of Tether is now almost back at 1$, which is bullish, and Tether has been coming out to tell investors that their USDT is backed by US treasury bonds. Is this true? Nobody knows, and even if it isn't true, it still is the only story we have for the moment and it calms down the fear as bonds are safe assets and investors will see this as a good way to store dollars.
Remember, the truth doesn't matter if it is the lie people believe in. Only when the truth comes out you should play on it.
"The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent!"
TA:
I think the problem is that many ewt traders counted the top of the 14th of April 2021 as the top of wave (3), myself included. The problem is that it would make the first leg down as a 5 waves move which can't happen because the next leg, the B wave, retraced more than 100% of it. So it has to be a 3 waves down for wave A making the entire ABC move an extended flat* or a complex correction as WXY**. This means that the top of the 14th of April 2021 is instead a wave of A also making wave A an extended flat itself.
The wave B that followed looks like a simple zigzag*** where the wave is almost as large as wave . This is good as the formation of B should not be the same as wave A.
The wave C (where we are now) looks to having been developing in 3 waves sequences. My idea is that it is forming an ending diagonal which is a 5 waves pattern with 3 waves sequences for each wave.
Could it also reverse from now instead making the entire wave (4) as a complex correction instead? Yes, but I don't think so as it is very unsual for wave X to retrace more than 100% of wave W and if there is 2 options between a flat and a complex correction, then the flat should be prioritized. Furthermore, the volume at the bottom is quite large indicating that it should make one last low with a smaller volume giving a bullish divergence.
The target for wave C and the end of wave (4) is 22 134 $ which is the 38.2% fib retracement of wave (3), a very normal fib target for the 4th wave of an impulse.
After this low we should go for new all time highs! :)
* An extended flat: is a 3 waves move with the second leg ending a bit higher than the start of the first leg. The first and the second legs can be developed into 3 waves sequences whereas the third leg should develope into a 5 waves sequence.
** A complex correction as WXY: A complex correction corrects in 3 waves, all of them also being 3 waves formations.
*** Zigzag: A 3 waves move where the first and the third leg are themselves 5 waves impulses separated with the middle leg which is a 3 waves correction.
FA:
The Tether story has been scaring a lot if investors lately. So much that it's actually in extreme fear at the moment which led to this recent sell off. I absolutely believe in that Tether is making money out of thin air to push up the price of BTC and other crypto coins BUT I just don't think they will get sued or stoped yet. The price of Tether is now almost back at 1$, which is bullish, and Tether has been coming out to tell investors that their USDT is backed by US treasury bonds. Is this true? Nobody knows, and even if it isn't true, it still is the only story we have for the moment and it calms down the fear as bonds are safe assets and investors will see this as a good way to store dollars.
Remember, the truth doesn't matter if it is the lie people believe in. Only when the truth comes out you should play on it.
"The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent!"