The target of the big triangle is a bit difficult to be sure about. The minimum target i see is around 9200/9300. But one can argue it's higher and all i can say it is possible. The big triangle could even be seen as a big , which has a target much higher even.
Earlier today i posted an update in my channels about a possible local for Bitcoin , just when the drop was starting. It went very fast but the bounce was decent and eventually the was taking a lot of time and we have simply moved up again. Now it looks like that has turned into a channel as we can see on the left. While i am writing this it is almost breaking. If it does, we could see another retest of the 8650. So even though the has become less likely, it can still happen if we make a quick drop to the 8650 again. Based on how the market has been moving past month, even if we touch the 8650 again, if it doesn't break within like 30m (60m) max, it could easily get turned around again. Bears simply failed many times the past 2 months.
The current formation can also be turned into a triangle, so if we don't see real reaction from the break of the channel, that a triangle version is more likely to happen. If we see another touch of 8950, it will become very likely to see it break eventually. On the right have drawn a possible as well. So even if we drop now, but not seeing a big dump, it can easily even find support around 8600. If this level we could be headed towards the target around 8400. However, usually when the market is extremely (like the past weeks), it is more likely to find support above that level. I know in theory it can drop to 8300/8400, but it would not fit the pattern of the past month, of bulls being in full control.
As mentioned yesterday, i said that if we see alts grow even more, i could not really think of a reason to why we won't continue the coming days. Even though ETH and XRP are falling a bit behind, others rallied even more in the meantime.
I talked about it a few times, but just a reminder, during big rallies corrections are usually fast and violent. Like we had twice the past 3 weeks. I think that the 6800/7000 is a mid-term level for this bull trend. A break of 8200/8300 could mean a bigger correction might happen. But for now, think short term the 8600ish is important to keep the speed of the rally alive. 8500 is what i think should be the max even. So above the 8600/700, means bulls are in full control.
At this point i just can't make mid-term predictions, as long as things don't really cool down it's pure guessing IMO. When i do have a view again, i will let you know.
So the channel broke, but it took like forever to make that drop. This is not normal for a pattern like that. Also broke the triangle and again no real reaction. Where the green support zone keeps holding. This usually tels us again that it doesn't want to drop and prob wants to go the other way.
It is still moving below the triangle now, so in theory it can still make a drop. So think we can say that bulls need to get it above the 8800ish again and then become likely we see it move even higher. If not, i don't think another attack of the 6650 wil hold again.
We had a few situations like these the past 2 weeks as well. Each time bears failed to reach their targets. So for this pattern to hold, we prob need to see the 8550/8600 hold for the bulls. Than it could still be part of the bull flag on the right.
So at this point, can't say anything else that bull are in favor, but we should also not forget that we have made an insane move the past month, so it will be a matter of time until it makes a big drop (correction) and it will prob come at a moment nobody sees coming, because that's usually how it goes.
Assuming it's more bullish than bearish, kind of disappointing that it just can bounce up above the 8800. So don't want to say already that bulls are getting a bit weaker now, but if we drop back in the channel again, would be likely to see it drop to the low again.
Not really the movement i am used to seeing inside of a bull flag. So think below the 8800ish, bull should be a bit careful.
Comparing ATH with current rally
In favor of the fall:
1) The growth of the market without corrections is observed since February.
2) 4 green candles in a row on the monthly chart.
3) Two unclosed gaps on SME
4) Futures expiration on May 31st.
5) RSI shows a bearish divergence.