Is Bitcoin nearing the end of this year's bull run?
We've been seeing strength in the crypto markets for this entire year, but if you ask me the market is overbought and is starting to overheat. I am seeing a market at all time highs, a market moving up at descending volumes especially since the last dip to 5500. There's bearish divergence on the MACD, the RSI is slowing and net longs have been increasing. On top of that, USD margin at Bitfinex is currently starting to dry up, which means that only cash will be buying if this trend continues. And let's be honest: why would you add cash to buy Bitcoin on spot at this price level, assuming you are not being greedy or FOMOing into the market. Oh and did I mention that everyone seems to be buying into the markets these days?
It is pretty clear that we are at the resistance level of a rising wedge on the daily log chart. To me, this means that it may finally be time to start looking for a short entry from a blow off top or from plain resistance with a tight stop above the wedge. My targets? If we do go down from here I would be looking at the 6000-6700 range, but if we break the wedge to the downside we could potentially go as low as 5700, 4300 or even 2800 if we enter a new bear market. Don't get me wrong, I fully believe in Bitcoin's potential on the long term, but I have a hard time justifying the current price at the current adoption levels, especially compared to where we were back at the beginning of the year.
It is pretty clear that we are at the resistance level of a rising wedge on the daily log chart. To me, this means that it may finally be time to start looking for a short entry from a blow off top or from plain resistance with a tight stop above the wedge. My targets? If we do go down from here I would be looking at the 6000-6700 range, but if we break the wedge to the downside we could potentially go as low as 5700, 4300 or even 2800 if we enter a new bear market. Don't get me wrong, I fully believe in Bitcoin's potential on the long term, but I have a hard time justifying the current price at the current adoption levels, especially compared to where we were back at the beginning of the year.
Comment:
Net longs are >15K now, USD lending rates hit .07 earlier today on Bitfinex. Assuming a long entry at 8250 BTC would have to go up 57 USD each day just to pay interest on the loan.
Comment:
.7% of course, not .07
Trade active:
Short from 8258 with a stop loss at 8320. looking to add more if we break below 8000. Targets 7310 and 6320.