COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In case you have not seen my last post 2 weeks ago, I have been totally wrong. I predicted a pull back to 4k, and the contrary happened.
So why do I predict 10-12k now? Well, there is new info to my point of view. Before I get into this, I want to say that all that is very exciting because, first, the alts will probably pick up the profits of btc when it will pull back after its first big rally, and there's a lot to pocket if that happens, and second, this market always move in such grandiose ways, I love that.

So, why do I think there's good chances for btc to go straight to 10-12k, instead of ranging or pulling back?
- the price quickly went through the biggest volume node of the chart, around 6k, and did not stay in it, it got out of it straight to 7.5k. This is very bullish . When moves are weaker, the price usually range within the large volume nodes before deciding. Breaking straight through and going out of it is very powerful.
- after the 200 daily MA, it also broke through the 600 daily MA at 7k. It is a bullish indicator to not get stopped by this major long term resistance.
- the volume is already higher than at the peak in 2017, despite lower prices, this is healthy for a continuation of the rally.
- lastly, and this is more personal, I don't think that ranging around 7.5k is the way this rally will end, I think it will be violent, like Nov 2015. Basically, our parabolic move is not finished yet. Also I saw very few forecasts on TView that predict this rally to continue strongly right now. I think it is good.

Two weeks ago, I told a friend that everybody was aware of the big resistance at 6k, and everybody was expecting a pull back for that reason. I told him that the contrarian view was to expect a powerful break through this resistance instead of a pull back. Disappointingly enough, there's a difference between saying something to a friend and really doing that contrarian move. My bad, that's a lesson.

In any case, at this point the safest move is to accumulate alts, for if they rally after btc .
(btw, when I started to write this post btc was at 7400$, and it's now already at 7850$, damn it)) Anyways... still a few days to go I think, if it follows a decent parabola)

Cheers everyone!
Comment: Little update, after we consolidated at 8k.

This weekend will likely be the moment of truth, and there is only 2-3 days left for my parabolic move to complete.

The price action of the last few days looks good within the parabolic move, we didn't pull back. So I still think roughly 65% chance upward / 35% chance downward.

If we go up, the move will be quick and violent. There will be some short squeeze, some fomo, volatility will be high, and when the rally will become unsustainable, I expect some sharp moves up and down of several ks.

I'm really curious to see if we break downward or upward. I can't wait to see.

Good luck!
Trade active
Trade active: We are indeed in a parabolic move that is going to end violently, i.e. in high volatility. I was wrong about the target, and I am not going to predict a new one because there is little resistance between 12k and 20k, and the volume profile is rather homogeneous in this large zone.


In a bullish scenario we would correct shortly around 12k, and in a less bullish scenario we would go back down to 8-9k.

In any case, what matters for now is that we are indeed in a parabolic move that can go very high very fast; and the correction will probably be as violent as the rise. So, even if we go up to say 15k, 18k, don't fomo because it is likely to fall sharply after that. But the alt season is really what I am waiting for.
Trade closed: target reached
Comment: I'm not so sure about the pull back, and I'm not so sure about the alt season anymore. Let's just wait a bit...

Comments

@blacksun - you were once again spot on my friend!!!
+1 Reply
The tricky Bitcoin is always good for a surprise.
Personally, I think there's a lot of manipulation involved as well.
The price behaviour is not "normal" and there is certainly help from outside at some crucial points.
But with all due respect: not so hasty. ;-)
Judging by the "fourfold flat-top", or what that shitty thing it called, it doesn't go to $12k.
The party is probably over for the time being and we're now going to watch how the B-C leg develops in the next weeks (and months?).
So I'm pretty confident now that we'll still get to see $2.9k or lower. Looking forward to it.... ;-)
+1 Reply
@ReallyMe, I agree with you in general, but this manipulation thing, give me a break. There's manipulation in all markets, because all markets have powerful agents trying to make as much money as possible. It's like saying boxing is tricky because someone strong is fighting you. Yeah, that's the point of it. There is nothing abnormal to BTC behavior. It might go to 12k, or back to 4k, or 1k, because the market decides so, powerful people included. Bitfinex, Binance, an old 200k btc wallet owner, Vitalik, unknown gov wallets with x00k btc, etc... all of them are included in this market, and all of them have a plan to somehow manipulate the market, to make as much money as possible.
+1 Reply
ReallyMe The_black_swan
@blacksun, yeah, that's fine and I understand it all, but if you trade S&P 500 and the index just hangs so indecisively and then suddenly a big one buys into a price wall, it's a bit strange. but it happens very often with Bitcoin. It's not a normal price behavior as I know it from other conventional big-cap markets. It's pretty illogical, so I guess some "whales" have a big say, that's all.
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@ReallyMe, Ok, well it's because crypto is still an immature market. Meaning smaller and less efficient. So big agents can indeed cause wilder moves. I think manipulation is a misleading term, when in fact it's simply immaturity. But ok, I'm being picky.
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Good analysis @blacksun !
About #ALTSEASON what do you think? july / august /september?
Do you think alt's could hit ATH? O alts in november prices?
Thanks!!
Reply
@SatomiZa, I'm not so sure about the alt season because everyone is expecting it, I don't like it, it's too easy. Not yet I think.
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SatomiZa The_black_swan
@blacksun, thanks!!!
Reply
I must admit, I definitely underestimated the craziness of the crypto disciples. Many of them, especially the laggards who have already heard of Bitcoin before and are now buying into the craze, will go out poor again after this semi-bubble bursts.
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@ReallyMe, Well the thing is that not so many people are fomo actually. This is a lot due to an extended short squeeze, that can go very high. Meaning many people were actually bearish at the start of the move and whales are taking advantage of this.
+1 Reply
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