So why do I predict 10-12k now? Well, there is new info to my point of view. Before I get into this, I want to say that all that is very exciting because, first, the alts will probably pick up the profits of btc when it will pull back after its first big rally, and there's a lot to pocket if that happens, and second, this market always move in such grandiose ways, I love that.
So, why do I think there's good chances for btc to go straight to 10-12k, instead of ranging or pulling back?
- the price quickly went through the biggest node of the chart, around 6k, and did not stay in it, it got out of it straight to 7.5k. This is very . When moves are weaker, the price usually range within the large nodes before deciding. Breaking straight through and going out of it is very powerful.
- after the 200 daily MA, it also broke through the 600 daily MA at 7k. It is a indicator to not get stopped by this major long term resistance.
- the is already higher than at the peak in 2017, despite lower prices, this is healthy for a continuation of the rally.
- lastly, and this is more personal, I don't think that ranging around 7.5k is the way this rally will end, I think it will be violent, like Nov 2015. Basically, our parabolic move is not finished yet. Also I saw very few forecasts on TView that predict this rally to continue strongly right now. I think it is good.
Two weeks ago, I told a friend that everybody was aware of the big resistance at 6k, and everybody was expecting a pull back for that reason. I told him that the contrarian view was to expect a powerful break through this resistance instead of a pull back. Disappointingly enough, there's a difference between saying something to a friend and really doing that contrarian move. My bad, that's a lesson.
In any case, at this point the safest move is to accumulate alts, for if they rally after btc .
(btw, when I started to write this post btc was at 7400$, and it's now already at 7850$, damn it)) Anyways... still a few days to go I think, if it follows a decent parabola)
This weekend will likely be the moment of truth, and there is only 2-3 days left for my parabolic move to complete.
The price action of the last few days looks good within the parabolic move, we didn't pull back. So I still think roughly 65% chance upward / 35% chance downward.
If we go up, the move will be quick and violent. There will be some short squeeze, some fomo, volatility will be high, and when the rally will become unsustainable, I expect some sharp moves up and down of several ks.
I'm really curious to see if we break downward or upward. I can't wait to see.
In a bullish scenario we would correct shortly around 12k, and in a less bullish scenario we would go back down to 8-9k.
In any case, what matters for now is that we are indeed in a parabolic move that can go very high very fast; and the correction will probably be as violent as the rise. So, even if we go up to say 15k, 18k, don't fomo because it is likely to fall sharply after that. But the alt season is really what I am waiting for.
Personally, I think there's a lot of manipulation involved as well.
The price behaviour is not "normal" and there is certainly help from outside at some crucial points.
But with all due respect: not so hasty. ;-)
Judging by the "fourfold flat-top", or what that shitty thing it called, it doesn't go to $12k.
The party is probably over for the time being and we're now going to watch how the B-C leg develops in the next weeks (and months?).
So I'm pretty confident now that we'll still get to see $2.9k or lower. Looking forward to it.... ;-)
About #ALTSEASON what do you think? july / august /september?
Do you think alt's could hit ATH? O alts in november prices?