DAILY (D1)
Yesterday's price action triggered a long black bearish candle which went (as expected,see my previous analyisis) down towards the clouds bottom support level @ 40'088 !
BTC is currently below :
1) the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line (TS)
2) the Mid Bollinger Band (MBB)
3) the ongoing former uptrend support line (in green)
Nevertheless, still above :
1) The Kijun-Sen (KS) @ 39'400 which is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 32'950-45'850 rally seen recently from Jan 24th to Feb 10th
RSI below 50, @ 46.24
Lagging line testing the MBB and the KS , which for the time being act as supports.
CONCLUSION ON A DAILY BASIS :
Watch carefully, ONCE AGAIN, at the clouds !
Indeed, such kind of information is very powerful, and will give you the next direction...
Therefore, there are two levels to look at very carefully on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS which are the following :
UPSIDE : 42'525 (DAILY TOP CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA)
DOWNSIDE : 39'400 (DAILY BOTTOM CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA & LAST BUT NOT LEAST THE 50% FIB RET and the KS TOO)
A sustainable recovery move above MBB, currently @ 41'489, would, temporary neutralise this ongoing persisting downside risk.
While a failure to hold above 39'400 would put the focus on 37'877 being the 61.8% Fib ret
ahead of 35'710 (78.6% Fibonacci extension).
4 HOURS (H4)
Below the clouds, the psychological 40'000 support level, nearly filled with a yesterday's low @ 40'088
Below the TS, KS and MBB too.
RSI far below 50 @ 33.07 with NO BULLISH DIVERGENCE DETECTED SO FAR !, meaning current reversal price action
should only be seen as a corrective move.
The Lagging line is below the clouds too.
Looking at potential tactical corrective recovery, we can identify the following targets :
R1 : 41'211
R2 : 41'907
R3 : 42'469 (50% FIB RET 44'850-40'088 & DAILY CLOUDS TOP AREA @ 42'525)
R4 : 43'030
To the downside, as mentioned previously in D1, a breakout of 39'400 would put the BTC
in a very fragile zone (mirror effect of the long white candle seen on Feb 4th (37'325-39'840)!
CONCLUSION :
Watch and monitor closely price action on shorter intraday time frames to get more clues and intermediate signal (s)
which will help you to validate or invalidate implications above mentioned.
FINALY, LAST BUT NOT LEAST DO NOT FORGET, WHEN YOU TRADE TACTICALLY IN COUNTERTREND TO ADOPT A DISCIPLINED RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH
IN PLACING STOP LOSSES ACCORDINGLY AND IN ADOPTING ALSO A TRAILING STOP STRATEGY !!!
GOOD LUCK :-)
Have a nice day and take care
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
Yesterday's price action triggered a long black bearish candle which went (as expected,see my previous analyisis) down towards the clouds bottom support level @ 40'088 !
BTC is currently below :
1) the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line (TS)
2) the Mid Bollinger Band (MBB)
3) the ongoing former uptrend support line (in green)
Nevertheless, still above :
1) The Kijun-Sen (KS) @ 39'400 which is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 32'950-45'850 rally seen recently from Jan 24th to Feb 10th
RSI below 50, @ 46.24
Lagging line testing the MBB and the KS , which for the time being act as supports.
CONCLUSION ON A DAILY BASIS :
Watch carefully, ONCE AGAIN, at the clouds !
Indeed, such kind of information is very powerful, and will give you the next direction...
Therefore, there are two levels to look at very carefully on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS which are the following :
UPSIDE : 42'525 (DAILY TOP CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA)
DOWNSIDE : 39'400 (DAILY BOTTOM CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA & LAST BUT NOT LEAST THE 50% FIB RET and the KS TOO)
A sustainable recovery move above MBB, currently @ 41'489, would, temporary neutralise this ongoing persisting downside risk.
While a failure to hold above 39'400 would put the focus on 37'877 being the 61.8% Fib ret
ahead of 35'710 (78.6% Fibonacci extension).
4 HOURS (H4)
Below the clouds, the psychological 40'000 support level, nearly filled with a yesterday's low @ 40'088
Below the TS, KS and MBB too.
RSI far below 50 @ 33.07 with NO BULLISH DIVERGENCE DETECTED SO FAR !, meaning current reversal price action
should only be seen as a corrective move.
The Lagging line is below the clouds too.
Looking at potential tactical corrective recovery, we can identify the following targets :
R1 : 41'211
R2 : 41'907
R3 : 42'469 (50% FIB RET 44'850-40'088 & DAILY CLOUDS TOP AREA @ 42'525)
R4 : 43'030
To the downside, as mentioned previously in D1, a breakout of 39'400 would put the BTC
in a very fragile zone (mirror effect of the long white candle seen on Feb 4th (37'325-39'840)!
CONCLUSION :
Watch and monitor closely price action on shorter intraday time frames to get more clues and intermediate signal (s)
which will help you to validate or invalidate implications above mentioned.
FINALY, LAST BUT NOT LEAST DO NOT FORGET, WHEN YOU TRADE TACTICALLY IN COUNTERTREND TO ADOPT A DISCIPLINED RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH
IN PLACING STOP LOSSES ACCORDINGLY AND IN ADOPTING ALSO A TRAILING STOP STRATEGY !!!
GOOD LUCK :-)
Have a nice day and take care
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
